Duncan Garner writes:

If ever Labour was going to scream transformational government then the one policy it had in the shop front window was the capital gains tax.
It was the panacea, the holy grail on the way to Jacinda’s socialist nirvana. 

So what happened?

And put to one side all this nonsense talk of Ardern being an international leader above all others, the latest being from Fortunemagazine. She’s not. Or it’s downright meaningless marketing. She’s best to ignore it. 
If you can’t put in place a policy so central to Labour’s economic plan, then why have this lot in power at all? What’s the point? Remember the slogan? It’s about fairness. It runs through everything they talk about. 

The point of being in power it seems, is simply to be in power.

All that political capital or credit after Christchurch and Ardern doesn’t spend a cent? Even John Key spent capital early on with his hike in GST. And he got away with it. 

And partial asset sales.

Ardern is a clear communicator and marketing expert. But listen closely, what is she saying? Nothing. She commentates the situation. We know that. We know what this scenario looks like and sounds like, but we want answers!
Here’s my summary so far:
KiwiBuild is kiwihoax. 
TPP is CPTPP. And yes, Labour marches against it but voted for it.
Child poverty is still child poverty. And more kids are in state care now than ever before. 
People living on the street are still living on the street. 
Carbon zero is lofty but carbon emissions are higher than ever. 
The economy is slowing.

Actual achievements by this Government have been close to zero.

So, big question? Did she fight for a capital gains tax? Did she put her best foot forward? Did she give examples of where it works? No. No. No. Does she believe in it? Who knows?
She no longer cares. Sure it’s the nature of MMP that you win some, you lose some, but this was not the one to lose. This goes to the very DNA of this Government.

What is surprising is she didn’t even attempt to fight for it.

The reporting of the Mueller Report shows that Trump tried pretty damn hard to obstruct justice, but in the end what saved him is his staff and lawyers refused to break the law when he asked them to.

Some examples of his conduct which would probably get anyone else impeached (Trump benefits from low expectations) are:

• Directing the Deputy NSA to send an e-mail falsely claiming Trump never instructed the NSA to have conversations with Russian officials
• Demanding the Attorney-General unrecuse himself as he needs an Attorney-General who will protect him (as opposed to uphold the law)
• Sacking Comey to try and stop the Russia investigation
• Demanding the White House Counsel tell the Deputy AG to call for Mueller’s removal (the WHC refused)
• Asking his former campaign manager to tell the AG to attack the Mueller investigation as unfair to Trump (Lewandowski refused)
• Directed aides to not disclose e-mails about the 9 June meeting with the Russians (they obeyed the law and disclosed them)
• Personally edited a press statement deleting the truth that the meeting was about info the Russians had on Clinton, not adoption
• Demanding the WH Counsel deny that he had been asked to sack Mueller (The WH Counsel refused as it was untrue)

If Trump’s lawyers and staff were as stupid as Trump, and done what he demanded, then the case for obstruction of justice would have been made.

This article further details the multiple times his staff ignored Trump’s demands.

Joel Hernandez writes:

Good evidence-based policy depends on reliable and robust data. Having failed to count more than 700,000 individuals, the 2018 census data has failed all New Zealanders.
As far as national censuses go, New Zealand’s 2018 census was a shocking failure: a dismal 85.7 per cent of the population completed it. To put SNZ’s blunder in the global context, India’s 2011 census counted 97.7 per cent of its 1.2 billion population.
I’m with the 2021 census crowd: bring the next census forward by two years to put it back in line with New Zealand’s original 2006 census timeline. This would allow SNZ to address the issues with the 2018 census. It would also give researchers time to get a handle on the 2018 data and put New Zealand back on track to getting the data it needs for better evidence-based policy. 

Totally agree. Time for the Government to show leadership on this and include funding for a census in 2021 in this year’s Budget.

The Herald reports:

Auckland Council is looking to sell or lease its four carpark buildings to help pay its share of the $1 billion blowout in the cost of the city rail loop.
But the Automobile Association is warning of potential price hikes for commuter parking if the parking buildings fall into private hands.

It’s not the job of Council to compete with the private sector or keep prices down artificially. They should sell the carpark buildings.

Auckland Transport, the council-controlled entity that operates the carparks, raised its daily charges at the Downtown carpark by 67 per cent in January on the basis that the carpark was “frequently full”.

That seems fair. If demand exceeds supply, then the price should go up.

“Aucklanders will be pretty happy to see the council making better use of its assets, but we wouldn’t want a situation where we have private parking companies having total control of off-street parking in the central business district, particularly if it’s a case of just one private operator – a monopoly,” he said.

It is the Commerce Commission’s job to make sure an industry is not a monopoly. Having said that it would be better for the Council to sell the four carpark buildings individually, rather than in one block. That is likely to lead to better competition.

Jesus was crucified 1,989 years ago, probably on Friday 7 April 30 AD. The crucifixion of Jesus is accepted by most historians as established fact, along with his baptism.

Since his crucifixion it is estimated around four billion human beings have followed the Christian religion. That is an amazing number as the result of one event 2,000 years ago.

I hope everyone has a peaceful Good Friday.

Danyl McL writes:

At the start of the year Jacinda Ardern declared that 2019 was her government’s ‘year of delivery’. Last year they were still figuring out how their phones worked. Next year is another election. This is the one that counts; the year they make good on those campaign promises of transformational change to our economy and society. They’re doing this through four huge, hugely ambitious policy projects. Or, at least, they were.

Danyl then looks at their four major projects.

The first transformational project is KiwiBuild: the solution to the housing crisis. It doesn’t appear to be going well, with Judith Collins exposing a new flaw, or scandal or oversight in the scheme roughly every seventy-two hours. 

Not far off the truth. They promised 1,000 homes by 30 June. They have 73 days to go and have completed 74 of the 1,000 homes.

The second is the Zero Carbon Act: a framework to price greenhouse emissions and transition us to a green economy. This was supposed to come before select committee in February, but New Zealand First has fought such a prolonged and ruthless campaign against it the prime minister was forced to intervene in the negotiations to ensure its very survival. We don’t know what the act will look like, but Climate Minister James Shaw now predicts our emissions will continue to rise until the mid-2020s, which doesn’t sound hugely reassuring.

GG emissions dropped under National and James Shaw is claiming under his policies they will increase until 2025 or later. How is that delivery?

Next month we get the Wellbeing Budget, built around a ‘living standards’ framework. This is designed to shift the public service away from its neoliberal focus on economic and financial measures and towards ‘human, social and natural capital’, and will let the PM go on TV and talk about how much she cares about Kiwi kids and mums ‘as a mum herself’ If nothing else we can probably put this down as a foregone PR triumph.

The Living Standards Framework was started by Treasury in 2011 under Bill English. Its a worthwhile project but it isn’t about delivery. In terms of delivery the data shows child poverty dropped under National and rose in Labour’s first year of office.

The fourth was the capital gains tax, which Labour has campaigned on for the last three elections – because it is an issue which goes to the heart of inequality in New Zealand – and which they just ditched after one of the most bafflingly disastrous public policy debates imaginable, making John Key’s flag-change campaign look like the Normandy landings. There will be no capital gains tax, the prime minister announced today, and Labour will not campaign for one under her leadership.

So on all four major projects, the Government’s year of delivery is seeing either zero progress or moving backwards.

The total capitulation of the Government on a Capital Gains Tax has numerous aspects to it that are of interest. Let’s look at them in turn:

Total Victory for opponents

While it was unlikely that the Government was going to pass the TWG’s CGT in its entirety, it was even more unlikely that they would capitulate entirely and do nothing. When I discussed this with Taxpayers’ Union staff a few days ago, we didn’t even consider the possibility of total victory. At the very very minimum we expected an extension of the bright line test on investment properties.

Very feasible also was a CGT with a lower rate, current assets grandfathered in and not applying to businesses. That would have met many of the objections.

The fact they couldn’t even get agreement on extending the bright line test for investment properties is embarrassing.

Captain’s Call

Andrew Little ditched Labour’s 2011 and 2014 policy for a CGT. Jacinda Ardern’s first act as Labour Leader was a Captain’s Call to put it back on the table. Doing so pushed them down in the polls and robbed them of any chance of a clear left Government of them and the Greens. If she had not made her Captain’s Call they may well have ended up ahead of National at the election. As the backlash grew, she devised a compromise of no CGT in the first term and have it considered by a Tax Working Group.

It was Labour’s decision, not Winston’s.

The assertion that the announcement this week is all due to NZ First is overly simplistic. The reality is Labour choose not to proceed. How do we know this? Simple. Ardern’s announcement that Labour won’t implement a CGT ever ever ever while she is leader.

If this was simply about NZ First, then Ardern would have said we don’t have the numbers in this Parliament for it, but we believe this is important and we’ll try again when we do get the numbers. This is what National said when they didn’t get the numbers for RMA reform. They didn’t say they’ll promise to never ever try again.

A deal could have been done with Winston

If Labour really wanted to get the numbers to pass it this Parliament, then of course a deal could be struck for some form of a CGT. This is what politics is about.

Look at the oil and gas ban decision. That went against NZ First’s interests just as much as a CGT would. NZ First backed it because they did a deal in exchange for their waka jumping law. Labour could have offered NZ First some other wins if they had wanted to.

The other reason why NZ First were open to a deal, is they didn’t rule out a CGT in the coalition agreement. They choose not to, which indicates that they could be persuaded in return for some policy gains elsewhere.

Summary

A great outcome for opponents of a CGT. It is basically dead for decades to come. Thank you Jacinda.

The Herald reports:

The cost of Auckland’s City Rail Link project has soared by more than $1 billion.
The new cost “envelope” of $4.419b has been unveiled today along with the announcement of the successful bidder to build the bulk of the 3.4km underground railway, which will run from Britomart Station to Mt Eden Station by 2024.
The successful bidder is a consortium comprising Sydney-based Downer, two subsidiaries of the Paris-based Vinci Group, the global Los Angeles-based Aecom engineering group and Auckland-based Tonkin and Taylor.
CRL Ltd’s (CRLL) Chief Executive, Dr Sean Sweeney, said that after a rigorous and comprehensive review of project costs, a revised cost envelope had been submitted to the project’s sponsors – the Crown and Auckland Council – for approval.

“The $1 billion cost increase on the previous $3.4 billion estimate made in 2014 reflects significant changes impacting the project in the past five years.
“No-one could have foreseen the competitive pressures that have occurred in the construction industry over the past few years and the impact that has on costs, particularly for a project the scale and complexity of the City Rail Link.”

Of course it could have been foreseen. It is hardly a surprise.

Sweeney refused to guarantee that the project would be completed on time by 2024.

So no guarantee on costs or on time.

Goff said it was unfair for Aucklanders to meet half the cost of the CRL when no other part of the country had to do so.

Why is it unfair? People in Invercargill are already paying half the cost. Why should they pay 75%?

Anyway the original cost was forecast to be $2.5 billion. I reckon there is a fair chance it ends up at double that.

Trump is definitely beatable, with his low approval ratings. But he could well win re-election, especially if the Democrats select the wrong candidate.

Here’s my take on how different Dems would do against Trump:

Probably beat him

• Pete Buttigieg – the anti Trump. Intellectual. Served in military. Very likeable. Avoids extreme left policies
• Kamala Harris – a former prosecutor so hard to pigeon hole as a liberal. Popular with broad appeal
• Beto O’Rourke – an empty vessel but a telegenic one who could win just on youth turnout

Probably lose to him

• Bernie Sanders – too left
• Elizabeth Warren – the Native American issue has damaged her
• Kirsten Gillibrand – too unpopular in her own party

Not sure

• Julian Castro
• Cory Booker
• Amy Klobuchar
  

What do readers think? Who if selected would do best and worst against Trump?

The Government is announcing their decision on the proposed Capital Gains Tax this afternoon after briefing Labour caucus at midday.

Use this post to discuss the decision. I’m doing a driving course at Manfeild today so probably won’t have details until this evening.

UPDATE from Mods:

With DPF away on his driving course he has asked us to give a summary of the announcement, which is:

It’s gone. The Government has ruled out a Capital Gains Tax!

Ardern says that no consensus was able to be reached within the Government over it. Here is her full Press Release, available HERE:

The Coalition Government will not proceed with the Tax Working Group’s recommendation for a capital gains tax, Jacinda Ardern announced today.

“The Tax Working Group gave the Government, and the country, an opportunity to look at the fairness of our tax system and debate options for change,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“All parties in the Government entered into this debate with different perspectives and, after significant discussion, we have ultimately been unable to find a consensus. As a result, we will not be introducing a capital gains tax.

“I genuinely believe there are inequities in our tax system that a capital gains tax in some form could have helped to resolve. That’s an argument Labour has made as a party since 2011.
“However after almost a decade campaigning on it, and after forming a government that represented the majority of New Zealanders, we have been unable to build a mandate for a capital gains tax. While I have believed in a CGT, it’s clear many New Zealanders do not. That is why I am also ruling out a capital gains tax under my leadership in the future.

“The Tax Working Group was a valuable exercise that has delivered some useful suggestions well beyond just the debate on CGT, and I want to thank the Group for its work. In fact the majority of recommendations will either be investigated further or have formed part of our work programme.

“There are other things that can be done to improve the fairness of our tax system. As such the Coalition Government has agreed to tighten rules around land speculation and work on ways to counter land banking.

“Work will also continue to cut red tape for business and crack down on multi-nationals avoiding paying their fair share of tax in New Zealand. We have already made changes to address base erosion and profit shifting, and we will shortly release a discussion document on options for introducing a digital services tax.

 “My job now is to focus on the things we can and are doing to improve the wellbeing of all New Zealanders.

“The Coalition Government is addressing the long-term challenges New Zealanders face such as mental health, climate change and child poverty and responding to the March 15 terrorist attack and keeping New Zealanders safe. Those challenges will be my priorities for the remainder of this term,” Jacinda Ardern said

News.com.au reports:

Tony Abbott has bluntly made clear he would agree to return to the Liberal leadership in comments suggesting Scott Morrison might not have the job after the election.
But he would have to be “invited”, Mr Abbott told voters in his seat of Warringah last night, The Guardian reports.

My God the man is deluded.

Stuff reports:

The Government’s top spending watchdog says it will pay close attention to the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) and has ordered an in-depth review into aspects such as managing, monitoring, and evaluating the fund.
Controller and Auditor-General John Ryan said the PGF would be a focus for his office for  2018/19 and beyond.

As it should be. It is a reelection slush fund, not an actual development fund.

The Press editorial:

Statistics Minister James Shaw’s claims that the gaps in the data are not a concern, and a chief statistician who was almost dragged kicking and screaming by politicians to present a fuller picture of a shambolic process and a poor result, are both worthy of greater scrutiny. 

They seem to be the only ones who don’t think there is a problem.

Another expert, John McDermott, Executive Director of Motu Economic & Public Policy Research, agrees with National’s spokesman Nick Smith that serious thought must be given to going back to the drawing board and holding another census as soon as 2021. This would fit with the original timeframe as the 2011 census was knocked back by two years after the Christchurch earthquakes.

This is absolutely what should happen.

Spiked reports:

Last May, six years after the law got the green light in Holyrood, minimum unit pricing of alcohol was finally introduced in Scotland. After being held up by appeals from Scottish drinks manufacturers, campaigners and politicians could at last use the latest and greatest weapon against the scourge of inebriation. Alcohol can no longer be sold for less than 50 pence per unit in Scotland. Surely the imbibers of cheap cider and supermarket beer deals would now have to curb their habits?

Well, the first proper results are in – and the policy has been about as potent as a lager shandy. Nielsen, a data specialist company, found that 203.5million litres of alcohol were purchased from shops in Scotland over the 46 weeks to 29 March. Minimum pricing should have, according to Scottish government figures, raised the price of roughly half of all alcohol sold in shops. Yet the figures suggest an increase in sales of 1.8million litres on the same period in 2017/2018. That’s hardly what the anti-booze lobbyists would have expected.

Bravo the Scots.

The Herald reports:

Notre Dame cathedral will be rebuilt – “it is our destiny” – following today’s devastating inferno, says French President Emmanuel Macron.
The famous Paris cathedral has been virtually destroyed in a massive blaze – its roof and spire have collapsed and firefighters have been struggling to contain the flames.
Although much of the 850-year-old cathedral has been gutted, Paris’ fire chief says the main structure has been saved, with the flames stopped from spreading to the northern belfry.

Macron said the cathedral was part of France’s destiny – and would be rebuilt starting tomorrow. “We will rebuild because it is what French people expect, it is what our history deserves.”

This is so so sad. After 850 years Notre Dame falls. It is arguably the most famous cathedral in the world, perhaps after St Peter’s.

But at least enough survives that rebuilding is feasible. Impossible to think of Paris without Notre Dame.

The Institute of Directors released:

The Institute of Directors (IoD) is concerned by recommendations of the Tomorrow’s Schools Independent Taskforce that would fundamentally change the nature of school boards, significantly reducing their role and responsibilities.
IoD Governance Leadership Centre General Manager Felicity Caird says “given the amount of change proposed and the importance of maintaining a well-functioning system, the IoD has significant concerns about the lack of robust evidence and analysis to justify the proposed changes.”
“Many of the IoD’s members serve (or have served) as trustees on school boards. It is clear from a recent survey of our members that the school board governance model is not fundamentally broken and many boards are operating effectively. Fifty-seven percent of respondents thought the current school governance model is effective or very effective, and 69% agreed or strongly agreed their school board of trustees has the right capability to govern effectively.
“We know there are some boards and schools that are not operating effectively and these situations need to be addressed promptly to ensure the school  system promotes equity and excellence,” Caird says.
“Transferring core board responsibilities to Education Hubs is not the answer and 63% of our survey respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed that hubs would improve the quality of school governance.

Around 15% of boards seem to struggle. The Government’s answer is to gut the other 85% whom are succeeding.

The worst aspect of the proposed reforms is that instead of parents electing school governors, the Minister of Education will appoint every school governor in New Zealand. Yes every director of every education hub would be a ministerial appointee.

David Seymour points out:

“If people weren’t allowed to make stupid and historically inaccurate statements, we’d have to close down Parliament,” says ACT Leader David Seymour, “but that is what Justice Minister Andrew Little seems to be suggesting in his response to a One Law for All pamphlet this weekend.”
“Mr Little is not claiming that the pamphlet incites or threatens violence, is defamatory, or is even a nuisance. Those would be legitimate reasons to curtail speech, but Mr Little is claiming the Government needs the power to shut down speech that is foolish.”

The Government is coming for you.

“We live in a world where the Reserve Bank Governor thinks the Bank is a Kauri tree, the Treasury is trying to measure your sun and moon feelings, and the Minister of Statistics says a census that missed 700,000 people is good work by the Chief Statistician. If this Government wants to ban foolish speech, it will have to seriously look at shutting itself down.”

Great analogies.

One News Colmar Brunton poll is here. As expected, a deserved boost for the Government and Ardern. When a Government shows competence it should go up in the polls. This is not a bad thing.

What is interesting is despite the timing being in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attack, how it compares with the same poll at the same point in National’s first term – April 2010.

Here’s how the numbers look:

• major government party – 48% Labour (2019) vs 54% National (2010)
• major opposition party – 40% National vs 33% Labour

So definitely a great deserved result for Labour but still 6% below what National was at midway in 1st term. And National in opposition is 7% above what Labour were at.

They key question going forward is what direction does the Government go in. Do they consolidate or do they slip back. How they deal with CGT, Kiwibuild, the Budget etc will be the key.