Latest poll

The latest Newshub Reid Research poll is at Curia.

It shows National 4% ahead of Labour, with NZ First holding the balance of power. However National could govern alone with NZ First while Labour would need Greens also.

Not all good for Winston though as he has dropped to 6.6%, down 2.6%. I suspect this is because he has spent most of the last week talking about himself and trying to make himself a victim. This may be a fatal mistake to make in the election campaign.

If NZ First drop below 6% in a public poll then a lot of interest will get focused on Northland.

AUSA votes to disaffiliate groups based on their views

AUSA announced that their members voted that the “Pro Life Club” should be disaffiliated and “any clubs with similiar ideology” be banned from affiliating in the future.

Auckland University should be ashamed they fund an organisation so intolerent of different viewpoints.

Where does it stop? Next they’ll ban the Young Nationals or Young NZ First from affiliating.

Universities should be a place that welcome divergent views and the challenge of idea. I disagree with the views of the Pro Life Club but I’d defend their rights to express the views to the death.

If AUSA doesn’t wish to be representative of all students, then they should not be funded by all students through Auckland University.

ACT announces $1 billion more for best teachers

ACT announced:

“Good teachers help children grow, develop, and reach their full potential which is vital to their future success,” says ACT Leader David Seymour.

“Unfortunately, because of union contracts, teachers hit maximum pay after ten years, schools can’t reward successful teachers, and teaching is not regarded as a strong career choice for our brightest graduates.

“Right now the best teachers earn the same as the worst teachers. Graduates are deserting Auckland schools or deserting teaching altogether. Teachers can only earn more by taking on administrative work, and spending less time actually teaching kids.

“ACT says this is crazy. We want the best teachers to stay in the profession and in the classroom.

It is crazy. A principal should be able to pay more money to great teachers and less money to not so good teachers. Just as in almost all other workplaces, those who are great at their jobs get paid more than those who are not.

“With the current government surplus at $3.7 billion, ACT will give principals $975 million to pay good teachers more, without cutting government services or raising taxes. But the schools will only be eligible for this funding if they abandon nationally-negotiated union contracts. This will make it easier for principals to replace bad teachers with great ones.

“ACT’s Good Teacher Grants will boost teachers’ pay by $20,000 on average, and elevate teaching as a profession, to attract the best graduates to teach our children and keep the most capable teachers in the classroom.”

A lot more people would go into teaching if they could earn more, rather than hix their maximum cap after 10 years.

Currently schools get between $50,000 and $73,000 a teacher based on how many years they have been working. ACT would give every school a whopping $93,000 per teacher to allocate as they see best. So even not very good teachers might still get say $65,000 while a great teacher might get $125,000.

Bribe-o-meter update

The latest costing of parties spending pledges:

  1. NZ First $23 billion or $13,324/household
  2. Labour $19.4 billion or $11,242/household
  3. Maori Party $12.1 billion or $7,060/household
  4. TOP $10.7 billion or $6,199/household
  5. Greens $8.5 billion or $4,939/household
  6. National $6.8 billion or $3,920/household
  7. ACT -$5.4 billion or -$3,103/household

So if you had a Labour/NZ First Government where says Labour gets 90% of their spending and NZ First gets 50%, the cost per househould would be almost $17,000 over the next three years.

They have also given each party a transparency rating for providing enough detail to allow the policiesto be costed. The ratings are:

  • 5 stars – Greens, National
  • 4 stars – Labour, TOP
  • 3 stars – ACT
  • 1 star – Maori Party
  • 0 stars – NZ First

The best satire is truth

The Civilian blogs:

In an effort to help reassure voters about its tax plans, Labour has introduced a new tax calculator on its website that will help to clarify what New Zealanders will pay if it wins the election on September 23rd.

The calculator lets you put in your income and assets, or those of your whole family, if you wish. You then click a button labelled “calculate”, which will form a working group that will deliberate for two years on what you should pay.

This would be even funnier if it wasn’t true!

Vote Labour and in two years you may find out that your parents home gets whacked with a 33% death tax when they die.

Or you may find out that the family farm has a huge tax bill when it gets divided up between children.

Or Labour may go for a land tax and everyone will be taxed on the value of their land.

The only certanity is that Labour won’t be reducing any existing taxes to compensate for their new taxes.

Another interesting Internet Party candidate

Matthew Beveridge has profiled Nicholas Smith, the 7th ranked candidate for the Internet Party.

Here’s a couple of the memes he has posted:

So the Jewish banks are responsible for North Korea!

And the Jewish banks are responsible for pretty much every war ever.

Incidentially 500 trillion dollars (take that Dr Evil) is twice the world’s wealth.

The charming Mr Smith also advocates lynching Bill English and Paula Bennett.

And this guy is their 7th ranked candidate.

NZ now 5th lowest gender pay gap in the world

The 9.4% gender pay gap in the 2017 data has NZ as one of the lowest gender pay gaps in the world. The OECD data is:

  1. Costa Rica 3.7%
  2. Denmark 5.8%
  3. Greece 6.2%
  4. Norway 7.1%
  5. NZ 9.4% (2017)
  6. Hungary 9.5%
  7. Iceland 9.9%
  8. Colombia 11.1%
  9. Australia 13.0%
  10. Slovak Republic 13.4%

Other countries:

  • Ireland 14.4%
  • UK 17.1%
  • Finland 18.1%
  • Canada 18.6%
  • US 18.9%

So little old NZ doing pretty well compared to most places.

Protectionism in Queensland

Stuff reports:

Exporters are disappointed at Queensland’s tough crack-down on trade that is likely to take effect on Friday.

The Australian state’s Buy Queensland First policy favours local suppliers even if they charge up to 30 per cent more than an outside bidder.

Export NZ executive director Catherine Beard said Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s policy was “disappointing” and would disadvantage both New Zealand and Australian exporters.

“It’s not a good policy. If the best deal is coming from outside that’s what they should be doing for Queensland’s people in terms of getting best value for money.”

Protecting industries that can’t compete doesn’t actually help them. The wine industry in NZ used to be protected and because of that they produced cheap wine for under $10 a bottle as tariffs meant imported wine would always cost more than that.

Once protectionism was removed, people predicted the NZ industry would die unable to compete with cheap imports. Instead it flourished as it then focused on quality, and has now become a major export earner.

Labour’s water tax could be spent on roading!

Stuff reports:

Revenue generated from Labour’s controversial water levy, touted as a way to clean up polluted waterways, could be used to fund local projects such as roading.

The revelation came during a fiery meet the candidates meeting at Temuka’s RSA, where members of the audience grilled Rangitata’s five electorate hopefuls on water quality and climate change.

Labour candidate Jo Luxton told the crowd that during a recent meeting with Ashburton councillors, the possibility of using the revenue generated for projects such as roading, rather than solely for environmental purposes, was raised.

Labour’s water spokesman, David Parker, was at that meeting, and said he would be open to discussing that possibility, Luxton said.

So they claim the water tax is to raise money to clear un waterways but actually will just be a slush fund for local government.

When contacted on Friday, Parker said revenue would primarily need to be distributed to regional councils to clean up waterways.

However, money left over could be given to local councils, which would “decide what to do with it”, he said.

So a tax on farmers which will go to Councils to spend on whatever they want.

Don’t ban anti-vaxers

The SMH reports:

The self-proclaimed “world’s number one anti-vaxxer” has been denied permission to visit Australia.

Immigration Minister Peter Dutton said on Thursday Kent Heckenlively​ would not be able to tour Australia later this year as part of an international campaign calling for a pause in childhood vaccinations.

“We’re not going to allow him to come here,” Mr Dutton told Sydney radio station 2GB.

“These people who are telling parents that their kids shouldn’t be vaccinated are dangerous. We have been very careful in having a look right through this particular case and it’s clear to me that it’s not in our national interest that he should come here.”

I have no time for the anti vaccination crowd who at best are misguided and worst are charlatans.

But Idon’t think views alone should be ground for not letting them into a country. That is a slippery slope.

More Labour confusion on tax

Stuff reports:

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has given her deputy a ticking off for confirming Labour will campaign on a capital gains tax in the next election.

In a confused interview with the AM Show, Kelvin Davis appeared to know little of the detail of Labour’s tax stance and seemed to resile from that comment in the next breath. 

It was a shocker interview from the guy who will be Deputy Prime Minister if Labour wins. He was all over the place.

Labour has faced tough criticism over its decision to establish a tax working group after the election, but not reveal to voters beforehand whether they intended to implement a capital gains tax or any other taxes. 

Vote Labour and you may find that a third of your parents home will disappear in tax when your parents die. They may do a wealth tax, a land tax, a capital gains tax. It might be 15% or 33%. And they’re not going to tell you before the election.

It has campaigned in the last two elections to implement a tax on the capital gains earned on properties, but has remained unclear about whether that would include farms and businesses.

You own a small business that does well. Not only might you pay income tax on it but any increase in the value of the overall business could get taxed. If a patent becomes more valuable, then you might pay tax on the increased value of the patent.

If a farmer divides a farm into two, to allow both daughters/sons to farm, then any increase in the capital value of the farm could see a massive tax bill.

These are not minor details to those who have to pay it. These are massive. And Labour won’t say what their policy is, except they will decide after the election and implement it before the next election.

It was the weak spot for Ardern in Thursday night’s first TVNZ leaders’ debate, and Davis was visibly uncomfortable answering questions on it Friday morning. 

Ardern said she was “absolutely clear” on the fact Labour would hold a working group, but refused to answer how far Labour was intending to go with its conclusions and suggested tax changes were more likely to occur in the first term.

Labour is being very transparent over it is not being transparent. They are very clear that they will provide no clarity.

National deputy leader Paula Bennett said it wasn’t good enough. 

“The capital gains tax has been your policy since 2007, so you’ve had at least 10 years to sort it out and tell us what it means for you,” she said on the AM Show. 

Providing voters with the details of a policy allows them to determine how it will affect them. Labour is refusing to provide any significant details so it is a lottery as to how much extra tax you will pay.

Gender pay gap drops significantly

Stats NZ reports:

The gender pay gap was 9.4 percent in the June 2017 quarter, down from 12.0 percent in the June 2016 quarter, Stats NZ said today. This is the smallest gender pay gap in five years, after women’s hourly pay rose at a faster pace than men’s in the past year.

“Recently, there’s been a spotlight on gender pay inequality in New Zealand,” labour and income statistics manager Sean Broughton said.

“The decrease from a 12 percent gap last year is the biggest drop in the gender pay gap since the series began in 1998.”

I am sure all those many politicians and lobby groups who have been campaigning on this issue for the last year will welcome this news.

In 2008 the gender pay gap was 12.5% and in 2017 it is 9.0%.

Male average earnings went up 1.6% this year and female earnings up a massive 4.6%. This excludes the pay rise for home care workers as that came into effect on 1 July and this data is to 30 June. So the next set of figures may have an even smaller gap. The decline in the gender pay gap in 2017 is the largest decline since the series began in 1988.

Overall the median weekly earnings for paid employment increased by $35 or 3.8%. That is a decent increase with inflation being so low.

If you adjust for inflation, the real increase in earnings from 2008 to 2017 has been:

  • average weekly earnings up 14.8% to $1,118
  • median weekly earnings up 13.8% to $959
  • male average weekly earnings up 11.9% to $1,291
  • male median weekly earnings up 11.2% to $1,092
  • female average weekly earnings up 19.7% to $921
  • female median weekly earnings up 17.2% to $806

Let’s sell TVNZ while we can

Newsroom reports:

State-owned Television New Zealand posted an 89 percent drop in full-year profit after taking a $12.4 million write-down on the value of an “onerous” contract for content from the Disney studio and some $4.5m of restructuring costs.

Profit fell to $1.39m in the year ended June 30 from $12.7m a year earlier, the Auckland-based broadcaster said. Sales fell 2.5 percent to $316.5m while operating expenses – excluding the Disney cost – were little changed at $286.7m.

Please please please lets sell TVNZ before it becomes a Solid Energy.

Maybe Buis will harass them for years also now

Stuff reports:

A former policeman who waged an almost three-year harassment campaign against his victim has lodged a complaint against his arresting officers.

Jeremy Buis, 39, resigned from the police in August after being suspended from active duty since February 2015.

After a judge-only trial he was found guilty of criminal harassment, threatening to do grievous bodily harm and intentional damage.

Sources have confirmed Buis, who still lives in Dunedin, has filed a complaint with the Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA).

If Mr Buis thinks he is the victim in all this, it is very sad.

A good debate

I enjoyed the debate last night. There were far fewer interjections than previous debates, and no impugning of motives.

Former Labour leaders could learn a lot from Jacinda in terms of the benefits of reasonableness. She thanked the Government for thr briefing on Afghanistan, praised Chris Finlaysons’ record on Treaty settlements and said she agreed that our economy is one of the better ones in the world. Jacinda is likeable, and showed it in the debate by not trying to be a hyper-agressive debater.

I thought Bill did well, especially in the wake of an unpleasant poll result. He used his knowledge well and kept up a good focus on people.

Not sure the debate would have changed a lot of votes, but I think both leaders did well. They both got some good attacks over the line, but also showed some weaknesses – Jacinda in terms of policy detail and Bill in terms of having to defend the status quo.

Those who demanded Mike Hosking be removed as moderator should be embarrassed. I doubt anyone could claim he was biased, or went easy on English. To the contrary, he was very firm and assertive with both leaders.

1st debate thread

Latest poll

Tonight’s One News Colmar Brunton poll has Labour in front for the first time since National gained Government. It is just one poll, but obviously shows that a Labour-NZFirst Government is a real possibility. Greens are still fighting to stay alive at the 5% level.

Results are:

  • National 41% (-3%)
  • Labour 43% (+6%)
  • NZ First 8% (-2%)
  • Greens 5% (+1%)

Another day another bottom line

The Herald reports:

Winston Peters is set to give a “cast iron commitment” to move container operations from the Ports of Auckland if his party is in a position of influence after the election.

The New Zealand First leader wants the relocation completed by the end of 2027 – opening up 77-hectares of prime waterfront land for public use and the development of a new cruise ship terminal.

His plan would stop vehicle deliveries by the end of 2019 and free up Captain Cook Wharf ahead of the America’s Cup.

A cast iron commitment sounds like a bottom line to me, so that must be his 20th or so bottom line.

In the Finance debate on Wednesday night David Seymour had the best line of the debate quipping that Winston has more bottom lines than a 100 year old elephant.

I actually support Ports of Auckland moving from its current location. But this is a decision for the Auckland Council (the owner), not central Government.

Well done Wellington Airport

Radio NZ report:

Wellington Airport will be the first airport in New Zealand to welcome Uber drivers, with a dedicated pick-up area available at the airport from Friday.

The airport has reached an agreement with the ride share company, which will see the airport charge Uber drivers drop-off and pick-up fees of $3 a ride – the same as taxi drivers are charged.

Uber will collect the money on the airport’s behalf.

About time. Has been so frustrating having to walk down the road just to get your preferred transport option.

Best investment ever

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Bill English has announced the rollout of ultrafast broadband to another 190 towns and rural areas at a cost of $270 million.

It will see the UFB network completed two years ahead of time – by the end of 2022.

English said UFB was critical for businesses in the regions, especially those focusing on technology.

The money includes $140m to extend rural broadband to a further 74,000 households and businesses and to get mobile coverage in “black spots” on stretches of state highways and tourist hotspots such as in Milford Sound, Cape Reinga and Bethells Beach.

 

English said the UFB rollout had gone faster than expected and the uptake was higher that estimated “which makes it one of the quiet successes of our country”.

English made the announcement at Mystery Creek in Hamilton, where Mayor Andrew King thanked him for the infrastructure spending in the region on transport and schools.

English said $240m of the $270m cost would be recycled capital from the original rollout because uptake had been strong.

This has been an excellent infrastructure investment. As you can see the original capital is available for recycling because so many people have taken up the fibre option. So the actual cost is just $30 million for this extension.

Chorus will deliver the ultrafast broadband to 87 per cent of the country.

We will have one of the highest fibre penetration rates in the world.

Communications Minister Simon Bridges said the total $2 billion spend on communications infrastructure would put New Zealand in the top five countries in the OECD for access to high-speed broadband, up from 26th in 2011.

Superb, and as more and more of us consume video via streaming and on demand, the fibre infrastructure becomes a must have, not a nice to have. I’m likely to close my Sky account shortly and just consume TV through Apple TV.

Game of Thrones Season Seven (spoilers)