Now all the party lists are out we can look at who are the likely MPs based on the average of the public polls. The current average has

• National 54 seats, 40 electorate and 14 list
• Labour 42 seats, 27 electorate and 15 list
• NZ First 13 seats, 1 electorate and 12 list
• Greens 9 seats, 9 list
• Maori Party 2 seats, 2 electorate
• ACT 1 seat, 1 electorate

The electorate seats are based on an assumption of the current party holding them except where a public poll shows otherwise. So we have Ohariu going to Labour and Te Tai Hauauru to Maori Party as public polls have shown them leading.

So who would be the List MPs. They are

National

1. Bill English
2. David Carter
3. Steven Joyce
4. Chris Finlayson
5. Michael Woodhouse
6. Paul Goldsmith
7. Alfred Ngaro
8. Brett Hudson
9. Melissa Lee
10. Kanwal JS Bakshi
11. Jian Yang
12. Paramjit Parmar
13. Jo Hayes
14. Chris Bishop

Labour

1. Andrew Little
2. David Parker
3. Priyanca Radhakrishan
4. Raymond Huo
5. Jan Tinetti
6. Willow-Jean Prime
7. Kiri Allan
8. Willie Jackson
9. Jo Luxton
10. Liz Craig
11. Marja Lubeck
12. Trevor Mallard
13. Tamati Coffey
14. Jamie Strange
15. Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki

Greens

1. James Shaw
2. Marama Davidson
3. Julie Anne Genter
4. Eugenie Sage
5. Gareth Hughes
6. Jan Logie
7. Chloe Swarbrick
8. Golriz Ghahraman
9. Mojo Mathers

NZ First

1. Ron Mark
2. Tracey Martin
3. Fletcher Tabuteau
4. Darroch Ball
5. Clayton Mitchell
6. Mark Patterson
7. Shane Jones
8. Jenny Marcroft
9. Mahesh Bindra
10. Pita Paraone
11. Ria Bond
12. Denis O’Rourke

Note the public poll average includes polls taken before the Labour and Greens changes so I expect the numbers will change as the older polls fade (after five weeks they disappear) and new ones come in.

Newshub reports polling done in three Maori seats. The electorate votes are:

• Te Tai Hauauru – Howie Tamati 52% to Adrian Rurawhe 39%
• Ikaroa Rawhiti – Meka Whaitiri 55% to Marama Fox 39%
• Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene 57% to Mei Reedy-Taare 22%

I believe the Maori Party will retain Waiariki so looks like they could win a second electorate seat at least.

A reader who is on NZ Superannuation has sent me a copy of the letter they receive every year from MSD confirming their arrangements. As you can see they explicitly state your relationship status and living situation.

The rogue MSD staffer who altered Mr Peters’ application form must also have intercepted these annual letters because surely someone who is a former Treasuer of New Zealand would have immediately noticed something is wrong if he had seen a letter from MSD asking him to confirm his relationship status and living situation, and incorrectly stating them as single and living alone.

This rogue MSD staffer has a lot to answer for. I think MSD should call in the Police to try and track his or her down.

Of course it is possible that Peters did receive these letters. In which case you have to wonder what excuse he has for not responding to them.

MSDLetter by David Farrar on Scribd

UPDATE: MSD have said that not everyone gets one of these letters every years. So we don’t know how many, if any, Winston was sent. We would know of course if Winston gave a privacy waiver for MSD. Absolutely everything we have been told is what Winston says happened. MSD are gagged and unable to confirm or deny whether Winston’s version of events is correct.

National announced:

National will progressively extend Paid Parental Leave to 22 weeks as part of its Parents and Newborns Package designed to support families to grow and stay healthy, while also putting more money into their pockets.

“National will share the dividends of a growing economy, with more support for families with newborns in a new package made possible only by the improving government finances,” Women Spokesperson Paula Bennett says.

Ironic that Labour only extended it from 9 to 14 weeks, and National is taking it from 14 to 22. When you have a surplus you get better options around what you can afford.

Add flexibility to Paid Parental Leave, by allowing both parents to take some of the 22 weeks off at the same time so they can be at home with their baby together

This is a very useful change. Doesn’t cost anything but for many families the more time both parents can have at home together the better. Many families might choose for say the father to take six weeks and the mother 16 weeks so they have six weeks together trying to survive the baby’s demands.

“As pregnancy can lead to dental problems for some women, we will fund one dental course for all pregnant women and mothers up until their baby’s first birthday, including a check-up and any resulting x-rays, extractions and fillings.

Sounds reasonable.

The Parents and Newborns Package will come into effect on 1 July 2018. It is expected to cost $88 million per year from 2019/2020 once 22 weeks of Paid Parental Leave is fully implemented.

Something just messaged me to say they think the election should be held this weekend as the country may not survive another three week of spending pledges!

From Sideswipe.

Twizel is more lively than I imagined.

People will have read how Richard Prosser told people at a BusinessNZ conference that they shoudl sell their Contact shares as NZ First will nationalise the companies and only pay people the original purchase price.

Winston then came out and said Prosser had it wrong and they will pay market price for the shares.

As usual, Winston is making it up. You see WInston himself in 2012 made the exact same pledge as reported by Sunlive:

New Zealand First will use its influence on the next coalition Government to buy back our state-owned power companies which are being flogged off by National.

Winston Peters says New Zealand First is committed to buying back the shares at no greater price than paid by the first purchaser.

“State-owned assets rightfully belong to all New Zealanders but National is intent on handing them over to rich foreign investors.

“It is simply lining the pockets of the wealthy by selling off well-performing assets that already provide the Government with extremely healthy dividends.” 

Mr Peters says it is only fair to alert potential investors that New Zealand First’s intention to buy back the shares will be part of any coalition negotiations.

So Prosser has been punished for speaking the truth about NZ First policy.

Stuff reports:

International tourists would be charged $25 a head to help fund local tourism and conservation infrastructure under Labour.

International tourists already pay around $2 billion a year in GST. You don’t need a new tax to fund local tourism and conservation infrastructure.

So Labour is now doing a water tax, a tourist tax, a secret capital gains tax and an increased petrol tax.

As you can see below the Electoral Commission has investigated the Campaign for Change and made the following determinations:

1. All funds spent by the Campaign for Change are Labour candidate donations and must be declared in returns after the election
2. McCarten personally paid for the costs
3. $65,095 was spent up until Labour formally took over
4. The Campaign for Change was not a neutral enrolment exercise

I’m surprised that Matt McCarten was in a position to pay the $65,000 himself, especially as he claimed there was an external donor. But I guess the Electoral Commission has to take him for his word.

Chief Electoral Officer Letter to David Farrar 29 August by David Farrar on Scribd

NZ First has announced its party list, just after the deadline for filing them. The list is:

1. Rt Hon Winston Peters (nc), 5.0%
2. Ron Mark (+7), 5.0%
3. Tracey Martin (-1). 5.0%
4. Fletcher Tabuteau (nc), 5.0%
5. Darroch Ball (+5), 5.0%
6. Clayton Mitchell (nc), 5.0%
7. Mark Patterson, 5.2%
8. Shane Jones, 6.0%
9. Jenny Marcroft, 6.8%
10. Mahesh Bindra (+1), 7.6%
11. Pita Paraone (-3), 8.4%
12. Ria Bond (nc), 9.2%
13. Denis O’Rourke (-6), 10.0%
14. David Wilson, 10.8%
15. Richard Prosser (-12), 11.6%

On current public polling they would get 13 MPs.

I’d like to tell you something about the possible new MPs of Mark Patterson, Jenny Marcroft and David Wilson but the NZ First website doesn’t actually bother with minor stuff such as candidate profiles.

TOP have announced their party list. The top six (who would be MPs if they make 5%) are:

1. Gareth Morgan, cat killer
2. Geoff Simmons, works for cat killer
3. Teresa Moore, marine scientist
4. Buddy Mikaere, resource consent consultant
5. Olly Wilson, real estate agent and nurse
6. Donna Pokere-Phillips, regional council manager

UPDATE: A reader has corrected the list:

1. Morgan: kills your cat
2: Simmons: works for cat killer.
3: Moore: marine scientist, knows how to drown cats.
4: Mikaere: resource consent consultant, helps plan where to bury cats.
5: Wilson: real estate and nurse, sell you somewhere to bury the cat after checking it doesn’t have a pulse.
6: Pokere-Phillips: council manager, gives you forms to fill out and charges the fees for burying your cat.

The Herald reports:

Speaking to Newstalk ZB this morning, Peters said that he declared that he was in a de facto relationship with partner Jan Trotman when he applied for superannuation.

There appeared to have been an alteration to his application form but “no one knows how it was made”, he said.

This is a very serious matter. It sounds like a rogue MSD staffer altered Mr Peters’ form seven years ago in order to pay Mr Peters’ more money – possibly hoping to embarass him some day. MSD surely has to investigate how the application form correctly filled in by Mr Peters was altered so it was incorrect.

This is a copy of the application form for Superannuation. So Mr Peters would have ticked Yes and written in his partner’s name, DOB and gender. If Peters gives a privacy waiver to MSD, they can release the form that will show his handwriting on it with his partner’s name written in. This will exonerate him totally if he gives a waiver.

Stuff reports:

Labour has fired its biggest weapon of the campaign so far with a promise to deliver the first year of three years free post-secondary education a year earlier in 2018 and boost student allowances by $50 per week as part of a big jump in education spending.

Leader Jacinda Ardern released the policy on Tuesday as finance spokesman Grant Robertson updated the party’s fiscal plan that included the extra spending. 

The move sees extra education spending jump from $417m this year under Labour’s original plan to $781m and from $1.5b to $2b by 2022 as the fee free promise is fast-tracked.

That policy, unveiled by former leader Andrew Little in his “state of the nation” speech in early 2016, promised three years free education for tertiary students and other “post-school” education.

Labour want to keep taxes higher on all New Zealanders, so that they may give massive dollops of cash to the most well off in society. It is the anti-Robin Hood.

Those who gain a degree earn $1.6 million more on average over their lifetime than those who do not. That is a huge personal benefit which is why we say that they should contribute something towards the cost of that degree. Not a huge amount – usually $20,000 or so. A great investment for a $1.6 million return.

Labour’s frontbench is dominated by former student politicians who think students should pay zero towards their education. They think a truck driver should pay more in taxes so the lawyer has no student debt.

A small business truck driver owns his own truck. He needs to borrow money to fund that truck to set him or herself up in business. But Labour are saying doctors, lawyers and accountants should have taxpayers provide 100% of the costs of their education.

It’s an awful awful policy.

Not only is it a huge transfer of wealth to the richest in society, it will lead to a massive increase in worthless courses. If someone else is paying, people don’t care as much about the quality. You will again see people signed up for courses in hamburger joints, so that tertiary providers can get more of the “free” money Labour is promising.

Thios policy will cost $1.2 billion a year. Imagine what you could do with that money if you spent it in areas of real need, rather than bribing students who are going to become very wealthy.

Stuff reports:

Labour is being pressed for detail on its “Fair Pay Agreement” policy which business fears could lead to national industry-wide strikes.

Labour’s industrial relations election policy says: “Fair Pay Agreements (FPAs) will be agreed by businesses within an industry and the unions representing workers within that industry. FPAs will set basic standards for pay and other employment conditions within an industry, according to factors including job type and experience.”

FPAs are an Owellian name for national awards. It will be a return to de facto compulsory unionism and will mean an employer in Gore and an in employer in Auckland may be treated the same.

But Business NZ and National’s Steven Joyce called for Labour to explain to the electorate exactly how the policy would work, and whether it threatened the prospect of entire industries going on strike should FPA negotiations break down.

It would be like the 1970s again – entire industries on strike.

Kirk Hope from Business New Zealand said: “Pan-industry awards have been part of Labour policy at least since 2011, so it is concerning that there is a lack of detail around how the policy might work in practice.

Who needs detail!

“The Fair Pay Agreements policy would be the largest systemic change promoted by any party this election. 

“It’s important that it receives more scrutiny and debate in the run-up to the election.”

“There would be grave concerns if one of the outcomes of Fair Pay Agreements was widespread frequent industrial action,” Hope said.

The policy is designed to force more people to fund unions so that unions can provide more funding to Labour.

This is Part 4 of my family tree covering the Autons, my mother’s mother’s mother’s family.

William Auton my 6th great-grandfather was born in 1713 at Parkhouse Farm in Ripon and died in 1767 in Fountains Park.

His son William born in 1744 is my 5th great-grandfather. He married Margaret Thompson in 1769 and died in 1792.

Christoper Auton, my 4th great-grandfather was born in 1779. He married Elizabeth Leeming in 1805 and they lived in Yorkshire. He died in 1848 aged 69.

His son Christopher is my 3rd great-grandfather. He was born in 1806 and died in 1848 also. He married Jane Myers in 1833.

Their son Myers Auton is my 2nd great-grandfather. He was born in 1845 and married Anne Holdsworth in 1867. He emigrated to NZ in 1883 on the ship Crusader. They had 15 children. Two of his sons fought in WWI for New Zealand. He died in Canterbury in 1919 aged 73.

This is Myers and Annie and their children.

And a larger family photo of Autons and Storers at the wedding of Janey Auton and John Storer in Christchurch in 1904.

Myers was a farmer and a painter. When they emigrated to NZ they had six children aged under 10. I think they had sixteen children in total.

Hannah Auton, my great grand mother was born in Yorkshire in 1868. She married John Scott Milne (my great grand father) in 1893 and they had seven children together. She died in 1955 in Paraparaumu aged 87.

An undated photo of Hannah.

So on my mother’s side of the family I am part Newth, Milne, Clemens and Auton.

Their summary is:

• Newths (mother’s father’s father’s family) traced back to 1530 in Gloucestershire, England. Emigrated to NZ in 1842.
• Milnes (mother’s mother’s father’s family) traced back to 1782 in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. Emigrated to NZ in 1840.
• Clemens (mother’s father’s mother’s family) traced back to 1600s in Devon, England. Emigrated to NZ in 1842.
• Autons (mother’s mother’s mother’s family) traced back to 1713 in Southampton, England. Emigrated to NZ in 1883.

So three of my four maternal families were amongst the earliest families to emgrate to New Zealand. On my mother’s side of the family I am a sixth generation New Zealander.

A Q+A Colmar Brunton poll found:

• Reti 42%
• Jones 24%
• Savage (Lab) 22%
• Holwell (Gre) 10%

So it looks like Shane Jones will continue his unbroken streak of never winning an electorate seat.

Stuff reports:

Wellington homeowners face the possibility of being forced to bring their homes up to an approved city council standard.

The proposed Housing Quality Standard will be voluntary at first, but deputy mayor Paul Eagle says Wellington City Council has not ruled out making it mandatory if support falls flat. 

So Eagle is saying that if property owners don’t sign up to their scheme, they’ll try and make it compulsory. No possibility that if no one uses it, it is because it is a useless scheme!

“My crappy house in Island Bay is a 1950s job, and you wouldn’t build a house like that today,”  he said. “We get battered by the coast every day.”

So is Eagle saying no house mader in the 1950s is suitable for renting today?

If people failed to take the standard on, or thwarted the process, the standard could be made mandatory, he said. 

“If they’re not going to do it, only then we will need to take a harder line.” 

However, only the Government has the power to make such standards compulsory.

So it is an empty threat.

A spokesman for mayor Justin Lester said a “huge amount of work” was going into designing the standard, and it was a long process.

The council would introduce the standard through its Long-Term Plan, to be signed off in June next year. 

“[It] will incorporate both personal health and earthquake resilience, and be tailored to Wellington’s needs.

“The aim of this is to have a clear standard for all houses in Wellington to be warm, safe and dry, and also to tie in the earthquake strengthening and have it all in one simple standard.

“Currently, there’s a bunch of standards.” 

It was too early to say whether meeting or failing the standard would be included on a home’s Lim report, he said. 

“There will be a quality mark, and we envisage it being able to be advertised on Trade Me. For landlords, it’s a way to stand out in the market.” 

No problem with it as a voluntary scheme. If prospective tenants see value in it, they’ll give priority to properties that meet the standard, and this will encourage more landlords to meet it.

Stuff reports:

With the National Party grassroots still reeling from the unexpected onslaught of the Jacinda effect, Bill English needed to pull something out of the bag at his campaign launch.

English did that with a promise to give every kid a chance at learning a second language and an expansion of his Government’s flagship national standards scheme – national standards plus.

His promise that parents would be able to keep up to date with their child’s achievement on their mobile phone is something that will resonate with middle New Zealand and draws a line in the sand between National and Labour, which plans to scrap the student assessment scheme.

Labour want to return to the days where parents get no clear information on how their children are doing. They’d rather kids continue to fail, than actually point out when kids are below the desired level of literacy and numeracy.

English also hit the mark with his promise to put more resources into maths and digital leaning, and to give every child a chance at learning a second language – though there was a sense of policy on the hoof when English was caught out being fuzzy on the detail.

We are in a globalised Internet connected world. Maths, digitial and languages are all important parts of the future.

The sight of nearly 3000 National Party faithful drumming their seats to that theme should have given euphoric Labour supporters cause to pause and respect that their opponent is anything but down and out, and still far from on the ropes.

I didn’t attend, but those who did say it was the largest campaign launch they can recall.

Stuff reports:

NZ First leader Winston Peters won’t reveal how much he had to pay back due to a superannuation overpayment because it’s a “private matter”.

An MP being overpaid an entitlement is not a private matter.

Peters, the champion of superannuation, started collecting the pension in 2010 and was contacted by the Ministry of Social Development (MSD) in July this year to say he had been receiving too much.

Peters said the overpayment likely started in about 2013/14 because up until that point he was completing annual returns and says the mistake would have been picked up by Inland Revenue.

MSD need to explain how they made this mistake.

Did their computer system fail?

Did their staff enter in the wrong details?

Was this an error that could have affected other pensioners?

The public need to be reassured that this error which occured with Mr Peters isn’t systemic.

This of course assumes that the error was with MSD, and not with Mr Peters. It is unthinkable that the error would be on his part, such as incorrect information being supplied. That would be such a serious matter, I am sure it can be ruled out.

UPDATE: According to Newsroom the error was not with MSD, but with Me Peters. They report:

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters took higher superannuation payments than he was entitled to for seven years – while living with his de facto partner – and has been required to pay back $18,000 to the state.

Peters filled out forms when he turned 65 that qualified him for the single person’s superannuation rate, which is about $60 a week higher in this case than a person would receive if declared to be living with a partner, which he was.

If this is correct, this is very serious. It could be deemed welfare fraud. Now Peters, unlike Turei, promptly paid it back. But if this report is correct, then Peters needs to explain how this happened.

Also surely Peters of all people would know what the single and partner rates of NZ Super are.

Peters and partner Jan Trotman live together in a dress circle, $2.65 million St Mary’s Bay home. Her application, on turning 65, for superannuation is said to have brought the discrepancy to the Ministry of Social Development’s attention. Newsroom understands Trotman had to say if she was single, married or in a de facto relationship. The information was cross-referenced and Peters’ lack of entitlement to the sum he was receiving was discovered.

So did Trotman say she was de facto or did she also say she was single, and it was the common address that alerted MSD? Again this is information needed so conclusions can be reached on whether this was accidential, or not.

It is expected Peters will be pressured to waive his privacy rights and ask the Ministry to release the details of his application, the overpayments, and the correspondence that ensued once the issue was raised.

If Perers refuses to do this, the question will be why?

In 2008, Peters and his party were ejected from Parliament by voters after he denied receiving funds from millionaire Owen Glenn but was chastised by Parliament’s Privileges Committee which heard evidence directly contradictory to Peters’ infamous “No” sign that he held up at a press conference.

A reminder of why proof is needed about who this happened, not just Peters’ assertion it was an administratrive error.

Stuff reports:

Jacinda Ardern’s all-time favourite election?

Well, Obama’s 2008 victory will always feel special. But closer to home? It would have to be 2005, when the contest between race-baiting National leader Don Brash and two-term Labour prime minister Helen Clark went down to the wire.

Ardern, then a 25-year-old staffer for Clark, was beside herself as early results seemed to show Brash had denied Clark her third term.

“I remember my dad calling me and saying, ‘Don’t worry, you’ll be able to find another job’ – because he could hear how upset I was. And I remember saying in this broken voice, ‘It’s not about my job. What about all the people who’ll have to pay market rents in their state houses?'”

The interesting thing with this recollection is that as far as I recall that was not National policy in 2005. So Jacinda was upset over a non existent policy!

The job in Blair’s Cabinet Office was in 2006, shortly before he handed over the UK prime-ministership to Gordon Brown.

So is Blair one of Ardern’s chums too? Because as activist John Minto has pointed out, Blair took Britain into George W Bush’s catastrophic Iraq war on a lie, and many consider him a war criminal. How did working for Blair jibe with Ardern’s enthusiasm for peace and justice and so on?

Actually, says Ardern, she never met Blair in person at that time – ” the Cabinet Office is massive”. But the issue of whether she was bothered about working for a war criminal? “That’s a fair question”.

It isn’t a fair question. Blair is not a war criminal. Shoddy journalism to report an opinion of John Minto’s as fact.

She had very low expectations, so when the job offer came, “I was absolutely gutted. I felt this real dilemma, which was absolutely about Blair.”

She still took the job though.

So Jacinda is no Blairite.

The Herald reports:

The Black Ferns staged a stunning second-half comeback to beat the English 41-32 after losing to the women in white in Rotorua this year.

It was their fifth World Cup victory and adds another trophy to an already full cupboard at New Zealand Rugby headquarters.

Watched the game delayed on Prime and it was a great game. Nice to have New Zealand teams win both Rugby World Cups! Awesome effort from the Black Ferns.

NZ Herald reports:

Green Party leader James Shaw said there should be no more New Zealand troops sent to Afghanistan.

“Pursuing peace by military means has not fundamentally changed the situation in Afghanistan for 16 years – it’s not clear how sending more troops now will make a difference.”

He said the Green Party would seek the return of any troops should it become part of the next government.

“There are more effective ways of supporting the people of Afghanistan to achieve peace and stability.”

We only have 10 soldiers in Afghanistan,but it is nice to be helping contribute towards making it more secure for the locals. I’m fascinated by James Shaw saying there is a more effective way to get peace and stability with the Taliban. Could he share with us what that is?

As for his assertion the situation hasn’t changed for 16 years. Well that is not true. Here are some differences between Afghanistan today and in 2001.

• 2.9 million girls now attending school compared to zero in 2001
• Six million refugees have returned home
• Life expectancy up from 56 to 60 years
• Population with access to safe drinking water gone from 5% to 61%
• GDP gone from $5 billion to $20 billion

Without military intervention the entire country would be under Taliban rule. So again what is this magic solution James Shaw has to achieve peace and stability in Afghanistan without military force?