MPs funding

This the funding each party will get in Parliament based on how many MPs they have, if they are in the Executive or not and if they are Electorate or List.

It excludes Ministerial Services that will provide 200 or so staff to Ministerial Offices.

The bulk of the funding is for individual MPs to hire staff both in Parliament and out of Parliament Offices. However funding can be pooled and transferred.

The shape of the Government

What we know so far is:

  • Jacinda Ardern PM
  • Winston Peters offered Deputy PM
  • Three other NZ First Cabinet Ministers
  • Greens will have three Ministers outside Cabinet
  • One NZ First Under-Secretary and one Green Under-Secretary

I presume the three NZ First Cabinet Ministers will be Shane Jones, Ron Mark and Tracey Martin.

The Greens Ministers will presumably be James Shaw, Marama Davidson and Julie-Anne Genter.

Labour has 16 spots on Cabinet. Their caucus elects them but they tend to follow the leader’s nominations. Their current top 16 in terms of House seating are:

  1. Jacinda Ardern
  2. Kelvin Davis
  3. Andrew Little
  4. Grant Robertson
  5. Phil Twyford
  6. Megan Woods
  7. Chris Hipkins
  8. Carmel Sepuloni
  9. David Clark
  10. David Parker
  11. Nanaia Mahuta
  12. Stuart Nash
  13. Meka Whaitiri
  14. Iain Lees-Galloway
  15. William Su’a Sio
  16. Kris Faafoi

It is likely Trevor Mallard will become Speaker. Two Government MPs will also be Deputy Speaker and Assistant Speaker and one Opposition MP will be an Assistant Speaker also.

MPs Salaries

These are the salaries and remuneration packages, based on the coalition decisions. So what we have is:

  • Jacinda Ardern will be on a package of $540,000
  • Winston Peters will be on a package of $400,000
  • Labour and NZ First Ministers will be on a package of $360,000
  • Green Ministers will be on a package of $313,000
  • Under-Secretaries will be on a package of $250,000
  • Trevor Mallard as Speaker will be on a package of $354,000

It’s Labour

Winston Peters has just announced NZ First has chosen Labour to form a Government.

I’m slightly sad and very relieved! A 4th term National Government in coalition with NZ First had the potential to really damage National.

National goes into opposition as strong as a party can be – they had over a million New Zealanders vote for them and only need to pick up 3% or so to gain a majority in 2020.

The first ever Coalition of the losers will have a honeymoon, but the question is how long will it last for.

Thoughts are with the MPs and staff who get impacted by this decision. A transition from Government to Opposition is never easy.

UPDATE: Winston spent some of his time saying that the economy is likely to crash in the next three years, and don’t blame the Government he has picked if that happens. He is dreaming if he thinks that won’t happen.

Household income stats

Stats NZ reported:

Average annual household income has risen more than 40 percent since 2007, increasing at twice the rate of inflation, Stats NZ said today. Over the same period, average annual housing costs increased just over 50 percent.

Since 2007, average annual household income is up nearly $30,000 (42.0 percent), to reach $98,621 (before tax) in 2017. Over the same 10 years, average annual housing costs increased from $10,658 to $16,037 (up 50.5 percent), according to the latest household income and housing-cost statistics. Inflation, as measured by the consumers price index, increased 20.2 percent.

So the average household has 20% greater purchasing power than a decade ago. Also not this is before tax so the tax cuts would mean it has been greater than this

Lots of interesting data here such as:

  • Average HH income up 42% to $98,621
  • Median HH income up 34% to $77,250
  • Average personal income up 45% to $51,945
  • Median personal income up 41% to $40,000
  • Ratio of average housing costs to average HH income was 15.4% in 2007 and 16.4% in 2017
  • 40% of all households have income of over $95,000 a year.
  • 30% of all adults have personal income of over $57,000 a year

Will the Democrats take the House?

The Washington Post reports:

Buried inside the new CNN poll is a finding that won’t make many headlines, but should probably cause a good bit of concern for Republicans.

The poll asked the standard “generic ballot” question: Would you prefer a generic Democrat or a generic Republican in the upcoming election? Democrats lead on that question for the 2018 midterms by a whopping 16-point margin, 54 percent to 38 percent.

It would be hard for the Democrats to take the House but a gap of that magnitude would do it.

If they did take the House, I imagine there would be huge pressure to impeach Trump. However no way could they get a conviction in the Senate.

A bad combination

The Guardian reports:

A former National Front organiser and prominent neo-Nazi has denounced the far-right movement and expressed a commitment to fighting racism after revealing he is gay and of Jewish heritage.

I’d say there are not many gay Jewish neo-Nazis.

Matthew Collins, a former National Front and BNP member, now part of the anti-fascist group Hope not Hate, said they had received “a cry for help” from Wilshaw.

Collins has written about having known Wilshaw since the 80s. He said Wilshaw’s wife left him in 1996, citing Adolf Hitler as “the other man” in their relationship.

Strange strange people.

Quebec bans facial coverings in public

The Guardian reports:

The Canadian province of Quebec has passed a sweeping ban on face coverings – barring public workers from wearing the niqab or burqa and obliging citizens to unveil when riding public transit or receiving government services – ushering in a law believed to be the first of its kind in North America.

The legislation was adopted on Wednesday, capping off two years of work by the province’s Liberal government to address the issue of state neutrality. The resulting law has been slammed by critics who say it deliberately targets Muslim women and will fuel the province’s simmering debate on identity, religion and tolerance. …

The Liberal government has long argued the legislation – which does not specifically mention the niqab or burqa – addresses public safety, noting that it would also apply to masked protesters.

“We are not legislating on clothing,” Vallée said last year. “Public services have to be offered and received with the face uncovered for security, identification and communication purposes.”

Interesting that it is a left Government doing this.

Biggest and smallest vote gains for Labour

The top 10 vote gains for Labour, being the increase from 2014 to 2017 in their party vote percentages are:

  1. Te Tai Tokerau 23.0%
  2. Waiariki 20.2%
  3. Te Tai Tonga 19.4%
  4. Tamaki Makaurau 19.1%
  5. Ikaroa-Rawhiti 17.4%
  6. Te Tai Hauauru 16.9%
  7. Nelson 16.9%
  8. Auckland Central 16.1%
  9. Hauraki-Waikato 16.1%
  10. Dunedin North 15.9%

So the seven Maori seats had the biggest vote gains followed by Nelson, Auckland Central and Dunedin North.

The 10 smallest were:

  1. Manukau East 2.0%
  2. Mangere 3.5%
  3. Manurewa 5.8%
  4. New Lynn 6.6%
  5. Botany 7.0%
  6. Mt Roskill 7.1%
  7. Papakura 7.6%
  8. Kelston 8.2%
  9. Maungakiekie 8.3%
  10. Pakuranga 8.8%

The 10 smallest gains were all in Auckland.

Two landlords signed up

Stuff reports:

Only two landlords have applied for a rental warrant of fitness inspection since the city council launched the scheme six weeks ago.

The voluntary scheme was developed by Otago University and the NZ Green Building Council. It was backed by Wellington City Council, which teamed up with the university for a one-year trial.

The warrant, which aims to raise the bar for minimum housing standards, contains 63 pass-or-fail questions over 29 criteria to assess whether a house is warm, dry and safe to live in.

I suspect many owner occupied homes would fail the test also!

Islamic State loses more territory

Stuff reports:

US-backed militias say they have defeated Islamic State in its former capital Raqqa, raising their flags over the jihadist group’s last footholds in the city on Tuesday (local time) after a four-month battle.

The fighting was over but the alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias was clearing the stadium of mines and any remaining militants, said Rojda Felat, commander of the Raqqa campaign for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). …

Islamic State has lost most of its territory in Syria and Iraq this year, including its most prized possession, Mosul. In Syria, it has been forced back into a strip of the Euphrates valley and surrounding desert.

The SDF, backed by a US-led international alliance, has been fighting since June to take the city Islamic State used to plan attacks abroad.

Defeating Islamic State won’t mean the end of Islamist terrorism. But it will be a significant achievement to rid them of a territory.

Electoral law changes should not be part of the horse trading

The DP editorial:

Winston Peters wants to reduce the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold for political parties, the barrier that kept his party out in 2008. Peters’ own interests are obvious, but his unique position as kingmaker means he might now get his way on this. Labour or National might decide to give him a lower threshold as part of the coalition horse-trading.

That would be very very wrong. Policies should be horse traded, but not electoral law. Significant changes to electoral law should only be made with wide cross-party support. We do not want a US style system where the winning party gerrymanders the electoral system to favour them.

But I’m not sure the editorial is correct in saying Peters wants to reduce the 5% threshold. In the 2012 review of MMP he advocated keeping it at 5%.

He may have changed positions since then, but I can’t see any stories on this.

She should stand for the Internet Party in NZ

Stuff reports:

A congressional candidate from Miami can go one better: Bettina Rodriguez Aguilera says she’s been aboard a spaceship too. But this one was crewed by aliens. As in extraterrestrials.

Three blond, big-bodied beings – two females, one male – visited her when she was 7 years old and have communicated telepathically with her several times in her life, she says.

Doesn’t the Internet Party in NZ need some more candidates. She’d fit right in.

You would think it was a joke!

The Herald reports:

The Canadian man rescued from the Taliban after being held for five years thought his captors were playing a joke on him when they said Donald Trump was president of the United States.

Joshua Boyle, his American wife Caitlan Coleman and their three children – two boys and a baby girl – were kidnapped and held hostage by a Taliban-linked extremist network for five years.

According to Boyle, the family were rarely given any information about the outside world.

But when he was forced to participate in a ‘proof of life’ video, he was informed Donald Trump had been elected president.

Boyle told the Toronto Star he thought his captor was making a joke.

“It didn’t enter my mind that he was being serious,” he said.

He was kidnapped in 2012, so no surprise he thought it was a joke.

More Mayoral weirdness in Horowhenua

The Herald reports:

It has emerged a local woman has been writing and signing off emails as a district mayor.

Several Horowhenua District councillors spoke at a full council meeting on Wednesday about the need for an investigation into the allegation.

NZME understands the allegations to refer to local woman Christine Toms, although she wasn’t named in the meeting.

Toms has been openly acting in an advocacy role for mayor Michael Feyen. …

Media at the meeting were offered a copy of an email from Toms’ email address, which was sent to mayor Michael Feyen, with HDC chief executive David Clapperton copied in.

It was written as if from the mayor, and queried the qualifications held by Group Manager Infrastructure Services Gallo Saidy, who is acting chief executive while Clapperton is on leave.

Tukapua said the writing and signing off on emails as the mayor was “straight up unlawful”.

“It damages democracy, and it seriously damages confidence and good governance,” Tukapua said.

In an earlier statement, Feyen said Toms had never been paid by HDC “in any form”. He said his mayoral office set-up was “separate from the executive and administration”.

“I can have anyone I think appropriate to work for me,” he said.

“Paid or unpaid, and that includes Christine Toms as my current advocate.”

I guess the Mayor can have someone write his e-mails for him, but it does make you wonder who really is in charge.

Toms is believed to have invoiced HDC for her services as advocate and the invoice was ignored.

As it should be, unless her contract was approved by the Council.

More AUSA referenda

The fine folks at AUSA are at it again. Two accepted referendums are:

  • Should AUSA disaffiliate the Pro-Life Auckland Club?
  • Should AUSA prevent the future club affiliation of any group with a prolife ideology?

Other major issues are:

  • Should AUSA campaign for more student microwaves on campus, including a vegan-food-only microwave?

Yes thousands of Auckland students will get to vote on a vegan-food-only microwave!

Also of interest is the proposed referenda not accepted:

  • Should AUSA disaffiliate the Young Nats?

They rejected this question as they say it would breach their charitable status. So it is okay to disaffiliate a pro-life group but not the Young Nats?

The one hope is this question:

  • Should AUSA only allow club disaffiliation to be based on either misconduct or violation of the AUSA Constitution?

That should be the only basis for disaffiliation. Disaffiliation based on political opinion is a terrible idea.

Where National gained and lost votes

What were the 10 best electorates for National in terms of party vote compared to 2014?

  1. Manukau East +2.7%
  2. New Lynn +2.6%
  3. Mangere +1.7%
  4. Pakuranga +1.4%
  5. Botany +1.4%
  6. Manurewa +1.1%
  7. Mt Roskill +0.9%
  8. Kelston +0.6%
  9. Te Atatu +0.3%
  10. Papakura +0.0%

All Auckland seats. Astonishing to be growing the vote in any seats at all at the end of three terms of Government.

Which 10 seats had the biggest falls?

  1. Wellington Central -7.1%
  2. New Plymouth -7.1%
  3. Port Hills -6.3%
  4. Auckland Central -5.7%
  5. Christchurch Central -5.6%
  6. Whangarei -5.2%
  7. Mt Albert -5.1%
  8. Nelson -5.1%
  9. Ohariu -5.1%
  10. Ilam -5.1%

So quite big drops in Christchurch plus central metro seats.

The portfolios ACT would abolish

ACT have proposed abolishing around half the ministerial portfolios. Their proposal is:

Portfolio Action
ACC Keep
Arts, Culture and Heritage Keep
Attorney-General Keep
Broadcasting Merge with Arts Culture and Heritage
Building and Construction Merge with Housing
Building and Housing Merge with Housing
Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Keep until Complete
Children Delete
Civil Defence Keep
Climate Change Issues Merge with Environment
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Keep
Communications Merge with Infrastructure
Community and Voluntary Sector Delete
Conservation Merge with Environment
Corrections Keep
Courts Keep
Customs Keep
Defence Keep
Deputy Leader of the House Keep
Deputy Prime Minister Keep
Disability Issues Keep
Earthquake Commission Keep
Economic Development Delete
Education Keep
Energy and Resources Keep
Environment Keep
Ethnic Communities Delete
Finance Keep
Food Safety Merge with Primary Industries
Foreign Affairs Keep
GCSB Keep
Greater Christchurch Regeneration Merge with Canterbury Earthquake Recovery
Health Keep
HNZC Merge with Housing
Immigration Keep
Infrastructure Keep
Internal Affairs Keep
Justice Keep
Land Information Merge with Internal Affairs
Leader of the House Keep
Local Government Keep
Maori Development Delete
Ministerial Services Keep
National Security and Intelligence Keep
Novopay Merge with Education
NZ Security Intelligence Service Keep
Pacific Peoples Delete
Police Keep
Primary Industries Keep
Prime Minister Keep
Racing Delete
Regulatory Reform Delete
Revenue Keep
Science and Innovation Delete
Seniors Delete
Small Business Merge with Commerce
Social Development Keep
Social Housing Merge with  Housing
Social Investment Delete
Sport and Recreation Merge with Health
State Owned Enterprises Delete after Privatisation
State Services Keep
Statistics Merge with Internal Affairs
Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment Merge with Education
Tourism Merge with Infrastructure
Trade Merge with Foreign Affairs
Transport Merge with Infrastructure
Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Delete after Ngapuhi claim
Veterans’ Affairs Keep
Whanau Ora Delete
Women Delete
Workplace Relations and Safety Merge with Commerce
Youth Delete

 

More politically correct university madness

The Telegraph reports:

An Oxford College has banned the Christian Union from its freshers’ fair on the grounds that it would be “alienating” for students of other religions, and constitute a “micro-aggression”.

The organiser of Balliol’s fair argued Christianity’s historic use as “an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism” meant that students might feel “unwelcome” in their new college if the Christian Union had a stall.

Freddy Potts, vice-president of Balliol’s Junior Common Room (JCR) committee, said that if a representative from the Christian Union (CU) attended the fair, it could cause “potential harm” to freshers. 

Well Islam historically is also a colonising religion, so will they ban a Muslim group from their fair also? We all know the answer. The only acceptable religions to discriminate against are Christianity and Judaism.

Mr Potts, writing on behalf of the JCR’s welfare committee, told the CU representative at Balliol, that their “sole concern is that the presence of the CU alone may alienate incoming students”.

In email correspondence, seen by The Daily Telegraph, he went on: “This sort of alienation or micro-aggression is regularly dismissed as not important enough to report, especially when there is little to no indication that other students or committee members may empathise, and inevitably leads to further harm of the already most vulnerable and marginalised groups.

I think anyone who refers to micro-aggression is themselves a micro-aggressor.

The move sparked a backlash among students, with others within the College criticising it as a “violation of free speech”.

 The JCR passed a motion on Sunday evening condemning the JCR committees for “barring the participation of specific faith-based organizations”.

The motion said the ban was a “violation of free speech, a violation of religious freedom, and sets dangerous precedents regarding the relationship between specific faiths and religious freedom”.

Some hope for them, that the majority think this is nuts.

The $10 billion promise

The AFR reports:

When New Zealand’s new government is formed – most likely some time in the next two weeks – regardless of political stripe, there will be one big ticket project on the agenda: “moving” the 77 hectare Port of Auckland two hours up the road to Northland.

If it goes ahead, this project will create the biggest city centre development project in New Zealand for decades. The new port will require up to $10 billion in government cash just to get off the ground.

Now imagine the opportunity cost of that $10 billion. Think what else you could do with that.

Given the politically sensitive nature of the coalition negotiations, very few key players will go on the record about the project. But what has emerged is a picture of arguably the biggest non-earthquake-related infrastructure project since former prime minister Sir Robert Muldoon’s famed the “Think Big” energy projects of the late 1970s and 1980s that just about bankrupted New Zealand. 

It’s Think Bigger!

To give context, $10 billion is half the size of the New Zealand government’s contribution to the Christchurch post-earthquake rebuild, and more than 12 per cent of the annual NZ budget revenue. 

But may be the price of power.

Peters wants to move car imports to Northport by 2019 and the containerisation by 2027. Industry insiders dismiss both of these proposals, on that time frame, as pie in the sky.

There is a busy log port at Northport and a small container terminal. But there is only about 500 metres of berth space compared with Auckland’s more than 4 kilometres. So a massive port will have to be built, reclaiming, on a rough calculation by one source, 120 hectares of land.

That is a huge reclamation.

There is only one rickety train line, already in need of upgrade, that goes to Whangarei, the closest centre to Northport. In order to deal with the increased freight requirements, it will effectively require new twin tracks, travelling at least 150 kilometres. Best estimates told to the Financial Review are that the cost of that alone will be at least $NZ2.5 billion.

150 kms of twin track!

An act of Parliament and enabling construction and overriding planning legislation will almost certainly have to be passed.

You’ll need a law to confiscate Ports of Auckland off the Auckland Council. Will be the largest theft in modern times.

May have been offal from a pie!

Stuff reports:

Everyone who sat through Mark Lundy’s retrial will have different opinions on his guilt or innocence – if he killed his wife Christine and 7-year-old daughter Amber in their Palmerston North home on the night of August 30, 2000.

But it is safe to say they will agree on one thing – the scientific evidence was extremely complicated.

Lundy was found guilty of the murders in 2002, but the Privy Council quashed the verdicts in 2013 and ordered a retrial, which took place in 2015. He was again found guilty and sent back to prison to continue serving his life sentence with a minimum term of 20 years.  His case is once again before the Court of Appeal this week, starting on Tuesday.

Like OJ Simpson, Mr Lundy is still looking for the burglar who killed his wife and daughter.

There was never dispute that one of Lundy’s shirts had stains containing central nervous system tissue. The stains also contained DNA from the victims.

The DNA being there is not surprising, considering the trio lived together. The tissue was the issue.

The Crown said it was probably human tissue from Lundy’s wife. Crown prosecutor Philip Morgan, QC, in his closing address at the retrial, let the jury know how bad that looked. “No man should have his wife’s brain on his shirt.” 

The defence, however, said the tissue could have come from a piece of offal in a pie or a neck chop Lundy may have cooked.

No-one at the trial gave evidence about Lundy eating neck chops. There was a pie wrapper in his car door console, but no pie maker in the witness stand saying exactly what goes into a pie.

It wasn’t brain tissue from my wife, it was offal from a pie! Ingenious.