The Herald reports:

The cost of Auckland’s City Rail Link project has soared by more than $1 billion.
The new cost “envelope” of $4.419b has been unveiled today along with the announcement of the successful bidder to build the bulk of the 3.4km underground railway, which will run from Britomart Station to Mt Eden Station by 2024.
The successful bidder is a consortium comprising Sydney-based Downer, two subsidiaries of the Paris-based Vinci Group, the global Los Angeles-based Aecom engineering group and Auckland-based Tonkin and Taylor.
CRL Ltd’s (CRLL) Chief Executive, Dr Sean Sweeney, said that after a rigorous and comprehensive review of project costs, a revised cost envelope had been submitted to the project’s sponsors – the Crown and Auckland Council – for approval.

“The $1 billion cost increase on the previous $3.4 billion estimate made in 2014 reflects significant changes impacting the project in the past five years.
“No-one could have foreseen the competitive pressures that have occurred in the construction industry over the past few years and the impact that has on costs, particularly for a project the scale and complexity of the City Rail Link.”

Of course it could have been foreseen. It is hardly a surprise.

Sweeney refused to guarantee that the project would be completed on time by 2024.

So no guarantee on costs or on time.

Goff said it was unfair for Aucklanders to meet half the cost of the CRL when no other part of the country had to do so.

Why is it unfair? People in Invercargill are already paying half the cost. Why should they pay 75%?

Anyway the original cost was forecast to be $2.5 billion. I reckon there is a fair chance it ends up at double that.

Trump is definitely beatable, with his low approval ratings. But he could well win re-election, especially if the Democrats select the wrong candidate.

Here’s my take on how different Dems would do against Trump:

Probably beat him

• Pete Buttigieg – the anti Trump. Intellectual. Served in military. Very likeable. Avoids extreme left policies
• Kamala Harris – a former prosecutor so hard to pigeon hole as a liberal. Popular with broad appeal
• Beto O’Rourke – an empty vessel but a telegenic one who could win just on youth turnout

Probably lose to him

• Bernie Sanders – too left
• Elizabeth Warren – the Native American issue has damaged her
• Kirsten Gillibrand – too unpopular in her own party

Not sure

• Julian Castro
• Cory Booker
• Amy Klobuchar
  

What do readers think? Who if selected would do best and worst against Trump?

The Government is announcing their decision on the proposed Capital Gains Tax this afternoon after briefing Labour caucus at midday.

Use this post to discuss the decision. I’m doing a driving course at Manfeild today so probably won’t have details until this evening.

UPDATE from Mods:

With DPF away on his driving course he has asked us to give a summary of the announcement, which is:

It’s gone. The Government has ruled out a Capital Gains Tax!

Ardern says that no consensus was able to be reached within the Government over it. Here is her full Press Release, available HERE:

The Coalition Government will not proceed with the Tax Working Group’s recommendation for a capital gains tax, Jacinda Ardern announced today.

“The Tax Working Group gave the Government, and the country, an opportunity to look at the fairness of our tax system and debate options for change,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“All parties in the Government entered into this debate with different perspectives and, after significant discussion, we have ultimately been unable to find a consensus. As a result, we will not be introducing a capital gains tax.

“I genuinely believe there are inequities in our tax system that a capital gains tax in some form could have helped to resolve. That’s an argument Labour has made as a party since 2011.
“However after almost a decade campaigning on it, and after forming a government that represented the majority of New Zealanders, we have been unable to build a mandate for a capital gains tax. While I have believed in a CGT, it’s clear many New Zealanders do not. That is why I am also ruling out a capital gains tax under my leadership in the future.

“The Tax Working Group was a valuable exercise that has delivered some useful suggestions well beyond just the debate on CGT, and I want to thank the Group for its work. In fact the majority of recommendations will either be investigated further or have formed part of our work programme.

“There are other things that can be done to improve the fairness of our tax system. As such the Coalition Government has agreed to tighten rules around land speculation and work on ways to counter land banking.

“Work will also continue to cut red tape for business and crack down on multi-nationals avoiding paying their fair share of tax in New Zealand. We have already made changes to address base erosion and profit shifting, and we will shortly release a discussion document on options for introducing a digital services tax.

 “My job now is to focus on the things we can and are doing to improve the wellbeing of all New Zealanders.

“The Coalition Government is addressing the long-term challenges New Zealanders face such as mental health, climate change and child poverty and responding to the March 15 terrorist attack and keeping New Zealanders safe. Those challenges will be my priorities for the remainder of this term,” Jacinda Ardern said

News.com.au reports:

Tony Abbott has bluntly made clear he would agree to return to the Liberal leadership in comments suggesting Scott Morrison might not have the job after the election.
But he would have to be “invited”, Mr Abbott told voters in his seat of Warringah last night, The Guardian reports.

My God the man is deluded.

Stuff reports:

The Government’s top spending watchdog says it will pay close attention to the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) and has ordered an in-depth review into aspects such as managing, monitoring, and evaluating the fund.
Controller and Auditor-General John Ryan said the PGF would be a focus for his office for  2018/19 and beyond.

As it should be. It is a reelection slush fund, not an actual development fund.

The Press editorial:

Statistics Minister James Shaw’s claims that the gaps in the data are not a concern, and a chief statistician who was almost dragged kicking and screaming by politicians to present a fuller picture of a shambolic process and a poor result, are both worthy of greater scrutiny. 

They seem to be the only ones who don’t think there is a problem.

Another expert, John McDermott, Executive Director of Motu Economic & Public Policy Research, agrees with National’s spokesman Nick Smith that serious thought must be given to going back to the drawing board and holding another census as soon as 2021. This would fit with the original timeframe as the 2011 census was knocked back by two years after the Christchurch earthquakes.

This is absolutely what should happen.

Spiked reports:

Last May, six years after the law got the green light in Holyrood, minimum unit pricing of alcohol was finally introduced in Scotland. After being held up by appeals from Scottish drinks manufacturers, campaigners and politicians could at last use the latest and greatest weapon against the scourge of inebriation. Alcohol can no longer be sold for less than 50 pence per unit in Scotland. Surely the imbibers of cheap cider and supermarket beer deals would now have to curb their habits?

Well, the first proper results are in – and the policy has been about as potent as a lager shandy. Nielsen, a data specialist company, found that 203.5million litres of alcohol were purchased from shops in Scotland over the 46 weeks to 29 March. Minimum pricing should have, according to Scottish government figures, raised the price of roughly half of all alcohol sold in shops. Yet the figures suggest an increase in sales of 1.8million litres on the same period in 2017/2018. That’s hardly what the anti-booze lobbyists would have expected.

Bravo the Scots.

The Herald reports:

Notre Dame cathedral will be rebuilt – “it is our destiny” – following today’s devastating inferno, says French President Emmanuel Macron.
The famous Paris cathedral has been virtually destroyed in a massive blaze – its roof and spire have collapsed and firefighters have been struggling to contain the flames.
Although much of the 850-year-old cathedral has been gutted, Paris’ fire chief says the main structure has been saved, with the flames stopped from spreading to the northern belfry.

Macron said the cathedral was part of France’s destiny – and would be rebuilt starting tomorrow. “We will rebuild because it is what French people expect, it is what our history deserves.”

This is so so sad. After 850 years Notre Dame falls. It is arguably the most famous cathedral in the world, perhaps after St Peter’s.

But at least enough survives that rebuilding is feasible. Impossible to think of Paris without Notre Dame.

The Institute of Directors released:

The Institute of Directors (IoD) is concerned by recommendations of the Tomorrow’s Schools Independent Taskforce that would fundamentally change the nature of school boards, significantly reducing their role and responsibilities.
IoD Governance Leadership Centre General Manager Felicity Caird says “given the amount of change proposed and the importance of maintaining a well-functioning system, the IoD has significant concerns about the lack of robust evidence and analysis to justify the proposed changes.”
“Many of the IoD’s members serve (or have served) as trustees on school boards. It is clear from a recent survey of our members that the school board governance model is not fundamentally broken and many boards are operating effectively. Fifty-seven percent of respondents thought the current school governance model is effective or very effective, and 69% agreed or strongly agreed their school board of trustees has the right capability to govern effectively.
“We know there are some boards and schools that are not operating effectively and these situations need to be addressed promptly to ensure the school  system promotes equity and excellence,” Caird says.
“Transferring core board responsibilities to Education Hubs is not the answer and 63% of our survey respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed that hubs would improve the quality of school governance.

Around 15% of boards seem to struggle. The Government’s answer is to gut the other 85% whom are succeeding.

The worst aspect of the proposed reforms is that instead of parents electing school governors, the Minister of Education will appoint every school governor in New Zealand. Yes every director of every education hub would be a ministerial appointee.

David Seymour points out:

“If people weren’t allowed to make stupid and historically inaccurate statements, we’d have to close down Parliament,” says ACT Leader David Seymour, “but that is what Justice Minister Andrew Little seems to be suggesting in his response to a One Law for All pamphlet this weekend.”
“Mr Little is not claiming that the pamphlet incites or threatens violence, is defamatory, or is even a nuisance. Those would be legitimate reasons to curtail speech, but Mr Little is claiming the Government needs the power to shut down speech that is foolish.”

The Government is coming for you.

“We live in a world where the Reserve Bank Governor thinks the Bank is a Kauri tree, the Treasury is trying to measure your sun and moon feelings, and the Minister of Statistics says a census that missed 700,000 people is good work by the Chief Statistician. If this Government wants to ban foolish speech, it will have to seriously look at shutting itself down.”

Great analogies.

One News Colmar Brunton poll is here. As expected, a deserved boost for the Government and Ardern. When a Government shows competence it should go up in the polls. This is not a bad thing.

What is interesting is despite the timing being in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attack, how it compares with the same poll at the same point in National’s first term – April 2010.

Here’s how the numbers look:

• major government party – 48% Labour (2019) vs 54% National (2010)
• major opposition party – 40% National vs 33% Labour

So definitely a great deserved result for Labour but still 6% below what National was at midway in 1st term. And National in opposition is 7% above what Labour were at.

They key question going forward is what direction does the Government go in. Do they consolidate or do they slip back. How they deal with CGT, Kiwibuild, the Budget etc will be the key.

Okay a positioning episode with little conflict. Key points are:

Radio NZ reports:

National MP Nuk Korako has announced his retirement after roughly five years in Parliament.

The list MP will be replaced by Paulo Garcia, who will become National’s first Filipino MP.
Mr Korako is the chair of National’s Māori caucus and was an unsuccessful contender in the Port Hills electorate for the past two elections.
He said he wanted to leave Parliament now to allow his successor time to get to know the issues and people of Port Hills ahead of next year’s vote.
Mr Korako will give his valedictory speech on 1 May, 2019.

I wish Nuk well in the future.

The new List MP will be, as stated, NZ’s first MP of Filipino ancestry. Paulo has a strong background in commercial law. He is also the former honorary consul general for the Filipino Embassy.

The NY Times reports:

For months, employees of the International Committee of the Red Cross have made weekly visits to a detention camp in northern Syria bearing a photograph of a petite woman in her early 60s.
They show the image to camp officials, comparing it with pictures of tens of thousands of other people in the camp’s database. All of them are escapees from the Islamic State’s last stretch of territory, which fellto American-backed forces last month.
The woman in the photo is Louisa Akavi, 62, a New Zealand nurse and midwife who was abducted in late 2013 in the northwest Syrian city of Idlib. She is one of the last links to the group of at least 23 Western hostages held by ISIS, a majority of whom were released for ransom while others were killed in widely publicized beheadings.
For more than five years, her employer and her government imposed an especially strict media blackout, warning that any mention not only of her identity, but even of her nationality, could endanger her. But now that ISIS’ caliphate has collapsed, the aid group has broken its silence in hopes that the public can help find her and two Red Cross drivers, both Syrians, kidnapped alongside her.

I know Louisa slightly – one of the nicest kindest people around. I worked in the 1990s for the head office of the NZ Red Cross. The absolute highlight of working there was meeting the delegates when they returned home, who had worked overseas in war zones and disaster areas. They did amazing things and make a huge difference helping those most in need. Nurses would save lives, sanitation engineers would provide safe drinking water to tens of thousands etc.

The delegates would live in rough conditions, often in risky areas, and for very modest pay. They did it because they were motivated to make a difference. Louisa was the recipient of the rare and prestigious Florence Nightingale award for her exceptional courage and devotion to victims.

The Red Cross is strictly neutral in all armed conflicts and most warring parties will never deliberately harm someone who is under the red cross (or red crescent). But the barbarians of ISIS are the sad exceptions.

Hopefully someone out there has some information on where Louisa is, or what has happened to her. Thoughts are with her family, friends and colleagues who have had to endure her absence for the last five and a half years.

The ABC reports:

A major opinion polling company used by GetUp!, Greenpeace, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age and some political candidates is co-owned by union heavyweights the CFMMEU and the ACTU, an ABC investigation has discovered.
Melbourne-based uComms, which uses the robo-polling technology of veteran pollster ReachTEL, is now facing a backlash from clients who say they had no idea the company was controlled by two of the most powerful forces on the left-side of politics.

Amazing it took so long for this to come out.

Polls by uComms have received widespread media coverage in the past 12 months, including a recent front-page splash commissioned by The Sydney Morning Herald predicting a Labor win in the New South Wales state election.

Whoops. In fact Labor got 12 fewer seats than the Coalition.

Group executive editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, James Chessell, said the paper was not aware of who owns the company and will no longer commission uComms in the future.
There is no suggestion the outcome of uComms polling is influenced by its ownership structure.

The ownership shouldn’t matter, however the ownership should be known.

MFE has published the latest greenhouse gas inventory and its inconvenient for the left.

The left claimed for nine years child poverty increased under National, when in fact it fell on seven out of nine measures.

They also claimed that greenhouse gas emissions skyrocketed under National, when in fact they fell.

Here’s gross emissions for 1999, 2008 and 2017:

• 1999: 74.1 mt
• 2008: 81.3 mt so an increase of 9.7% under Labour
• 2017: 80.9 mt so a decrease of 0.5% under National

Here’s the change from 2008 to 2017 by sector:

• Energy -5.5%
• Industrial +15.6%
• Agriculture +3.7%
• Waste -12.0%

Now consider this against the fact James Shaw is promising emissions will rise under Labour/Greens for the next six years.

NB: I’ve used gross emissions as the offsets from forestry tend to be relatively short-lived.

The final season of Game of Thrones starts tomorrow. I will try to blog after each episode (with spoiler alerts) for those who share my addiction to both the books and the TV series.

Below are the unresolved questions that I hope will get answered over these final six episodes.

1. Who sits on the Iron Throne at the end – Jon or Daenerys or their child or Tyrion or Jaime or Gendry or someone else?
2. Is Tyrion a third Targaryen? Or are Jaime and Cersei?
3. Who will kill Cersei? Tyrion or Jaime or Arya? Will her baby survive?
4. Who is Azor Ahai, the prince that was promised, and who will they have to kill to forge Lightbringer?
5. What impact has Bran had on the past? Did he cause the Mad King to go mad? Did he create the Night King?
6. What secrets lie in the crypts under Winterfell?
7. Who will win Cleganebowl?
8. Who else will Arya kill? Will she complete her list?
9. What does Varys do before he dies?
10. How does Melisandre die and what does she do before then?
11. What happens to Gendry?
12. Jaime and Brienne?
13. Will we see Nymeria in action? Ghost?
14. Which dragons, if any, survive?
15. What happens to House Greyjoy?
16. Does Sam survive?
17. Which cities fall before the Night King is defeated?
18. Does Bronn get his castle?
19. How does the Night King get killed? How is the undead dragon killed?
20. Does Tyrion betray Dany?

After each episode, I’m going to recap (with spoiler alerts) the main points and then repost these 20 questions with the answers as we get them.

The Washington Post reports:

House Democrats are giving the Trump administration a hard deadline of April 23 to turn over the president’s tax returns, pushing back against Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s skepticism over their request for the private records.

I’m a Never Trumper but on this issue the Democrats are the bad players.

Trump decided not to release his tax returns before the election. He was the first candidate for 40+ years not to do so. He got criticised for it, but got elected despite it.

Having politicians use an obscure power to force a political opponent’s tax returns to be published is appalling. Where will it end? Will the Democrats start to publish tax returns of journalists they don’t like?

Stuff reports:

Auckland mayoral challenger John Tamihere backs concerts being staged at Eden Park and a new covered sports venue adjacent to the stadium.
He made the announcement in his first major policy release, covering parks, open spaces and stadia, at Chamberlain Park on Saturday.
He said rugby league’s Warriors would eventually have to shift to Eden Park to avert a costly overhaul of their home at Mt Smart stadium.

Eden Park is losing money big time and costing ratepayers. It needs to be allowed to do more than the status quo.