In December 2018 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2018 I scored myself 12/20. How did 2019 go?

1. NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019. Were at or below 4% in 6/9 polls. 1/1
2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party. Their website logo is “ACT for freedom” so 0.5/1
3. By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees. They are at 0.3% for houses and 2.5% for trees so 1/1
4. At least one National List MP will retire in 2019. Nuk Korako retired so 1/1
5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum. 1/1
6. At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019. Twyford sacked as Housing Minister but not from Ministry so 0.5/1
7. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019. Dropped 0.75 so 0/1
8. A new political party will be registered in 2019. Welcome to Sustainable NZ and Vision NZ. 1/1
9. TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll. They made 0.9% so 0/1
10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18. The 17/18 surplus was $5.5b. The 2019 Budget was for $3.5b (and is now projected to be a deficit) so 1/1
11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax. 1/1
12. Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia. Glad to be wrong and 0/1
13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019. 1/1
14. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2018. It was 4.2% compared to 4.0% so 1/1
15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. Tempted to give myself a half mark as they hide him whenever he is meant to be Acting PM but technically still there even though Robbo is the de facto Deputy Leader. 0/1
16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down. Yep 1/1
17. The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure. Nope so 0/1
18. Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government. Got that right 1/1
19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet. Also 1/1
20. The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019. Not bad for back in December 2018 – 1/1

So all up 14/20 – happy with that.

Radio NZ has an article on the “turnardern” campaign.

I think the campaign is puerile and silly.

But equally silly is this reaction from the author of the Ardern book:

“Throughout history, attempts have been made to silence women. We’ve been drowned as witches, denied the vote, gaslighted in relationships, had our ideas stolen in meetings, had our voices and views disbelieved and minimised. We’ve been done to, not done by,” she said.

“Seen in this light, #TurnArdern is just another manifestation of this simmering hatred of women that lies just beneath the surface.

Comparing a campaign of turning books around in a bookshop to drowning witches is even sillier than the actual campaign.

In fact the only violence associated with the campaign is against the guy who started it who has had his address doxed and online death threats.

A Canterbury man was five times over the drink driving limit travelling about 200km/h in a suburban street when a fiery car smash killed him, a coroner has found.

Timothy Joshua (TJ) Walker died at the scene after his Ford Falcon car failed to take a slight bend, flipped, smashed into a brick wall and caught fire in Hampstead, Ashburton, at 3am on May 19, 2018.

The 24-year-old electrician was not wearing a seatbelt. 

He was five times over the legal limit. He was driving at four times the speed limit, and he wasn’t wearing a seatbelt.

If it weren’t for the fact he killed himself, he would have been eligible for being charged with vehicular homicide. His actions were almost guaranteed to kill.

Steven Joyce writes:

The Government’s half-yearly update this week shows that by 2022 they’ll have collected at least $10 billion more tax than was predicted by Treasury before the last election.

Unfortunately, they are spending it even faster. The amount they are going to spend across the four years to 2022, according to official government numbers, is now $19b more than was in their own fiscal plan prior to the election. Alert readers will recall much wailing and gnashing of teeth when someone had the temerity to suggest they would spend $11b more than their own plan. We are now well past that point.  

Yep Labour have blown out their own fiscal plan by $19 billion – twice what Joyce pointed out was the likely hole.

Debt is now predicted to top out at $78b, as against the $68b they predicted at election time two years ago, and an expected surplus of $6b for the current year is now projected to be a deficit.

And this deficit isn’t due to the extra infrastructure spending announced a few weeks ago – that won’t impact the surplus for years. The deficit is purely runaway expenditure.

All the key performance indicators that measure the effectiveness of government spending are currently going backwards. State Housing wait lists, poverty numbers and numbers on welfare are all growing. The big hospital metrics like emergency wait times and elective surgery numbers are deteriorating. The performance of our kids in school relative to the rest of the world is continuing to decline, and tertiary enrolments are down despite a year’s free tuition. There has also been no discernible economic uplift in regional New Zealand to match the government’s fine rhetoric, beyond what was already occurring.

Poverty up. Homelessness up. Welfare up. Emissions up. Hospital waiting times up.

Let’s be under no illusion as to how quickly the infrastructure pipeline has been run down. There are currently eleven major roading projects, all started before 2017, that are building 120km of new and upgraded four lane highways around this country. Nine of them are due to finish before the end of next year.  

From that point in time there is literally nothing, no large new road projects, rail projects, or anything else to replace them.

Hence the panicked announcement.

Here’s how Duncan Garner grades the Ministers for 2019:

• B+: Jacinda Ardern, Winston Peters
• B: Grant Robertson, David Parker, Megan Woods, Chris Hipkins, Kris Faafoi, Kelvin Davis
• B-: Shane Jones
• D: Iain Lees-Galloway
• E: Phil Twyford

Steve Elers writes at Stuff:

The Māori Council claim acknowledged that “existence of radio waves was discovered by Heinrich Hertz [a German physicist] in about 1886”, but “whether discovered or not, the [Māori] chiefs and tribes had absolute chieftainship over all resources, discovered and undiscovered, in New Zealand in 1840”.

So, a German physicist discovered radio waves, in Germany, about 1886, so therefore Māori should own 5G mobile technology today because the spectrum was a resource, albeit undiscovered, before or at the signing of the treaty? That’s just as nonsensical as the Waitangi Tribunal’s report that found: “The spectrum is a taonga to be shared by the tribes and by all mankind.” A taonga. Really?

Being Māori, of course I’d like to see Māori up and down the country reap the benefits of ownership, for example, home ownership and business ownership. But, no matter how I look at it, I cannot see a logical, rational argument for the Government to give “Māori” a slice of 5G spectrum. Moreover, government actions such as this feed into the hysteria that Māori are given preferential treatment and handouts when in fact your Māori neighbours and work-mates won’t see a cent. Who then benefits?

To suggest that the meaning of taonga in 1840 included the then undiscovered radio spectrum is farcical.

Stuff reports:

Large government departments have reported increased spending on consultants and contractors, a year after the government promised to reduce it.

State Services Minister Chris Hipkins promised in mid-2018 the government would “reduce the reliance on expensive consultants and contractors, saving taxpayers many millions of dollars a year”.

At that time, the total spend reported by 22 departments was about $550m.

Now, annual reviews at 13 of the 16  largest departments and agencies show spending on contractors and consultants increased a total 14 percent in a single year to $720m.

The year of delivery keeps on delivering.

The Herald reports:

Deputy Speaker and National MP Anne Tolley has announced she won’t be running for her long-held East Coast electorate next year and will instead rely on coming into Parliament the party’s list.

This, according to Tolley, is because she wants to be the Speaker of the House if National wins next year’s election.

“The role of Speaker would require full-time attention. Given that, it wouldn’t be fair to continue to be an electorate MP.”

Anne would be a great Speaker, so this decision makes sense for her.

She has an 4,807 majority in East Coast. Labour’s Kiri Allan has a lot of profile so National will need to select a good candidate to be confident of retaining the seat with Anne going list-only.

The Supreme Court has dismissed the appeal by Mark Lundy for his murder of his wife and daughter. Some extracts:

• the location of the central nervous system tissue and large quantities of Mrs Lundy’s DNA in precisely the same places on the shirt is very strong evidence that the tissue came from Mrs Lundy’s brain
• we think it very unlikely that Mrs Lundy sneezed mucus onto the shirt at precisely the same two places as the central nervous system tissue and the blood were found
• Amber’s body was found in the doorway of the bedroom in which Christine was murdered. It seems likely that she had entered the room and was attacked as she fled. Very small particles of her blood were found when the ESR took tape lifts from the shirt
• We consider that the paint fragments support the Crown case that the murder weapon was a tool bearing blue and orange paint, a hallmark of Mr Lundy’s.

And in summary:

We find that the central nervous system tissue on the shirt came from Mrs Lundy’s brain and its presence there is not explained by contamination in police or ProPath custody. The evidence establishes these facts beyond reasonable doubt. It offers no alternative explanation consistent with innocence.

Game over.

Lundy’s non-parole period has now expired, but as he continues to deny responsibility I doubt he will get parole anytime soon.

Josie Pagani writes in the Herald:

Jeremy Corbyn promised the skies. Free tertiary fees, nationalised railways, free money, free broadband and a four-day week. Who wouldn’t vote for that?

At some point, the popular components of this manifesto lost as awareness grew that he couldn’t remotely deliver it all. Labour’s inability to prioritise and make tough calls, or voice a coherent message on anything, let alone Brexit, showed Corbyn to be weak and unable to lead.

Pagani gets a key point. Some policies individually may poll as popular (who wouldn’t want free broadband) but collectively voters are not stupid and know that promises have to be funded.

But more than anything else, it’s a culture war. Working people in working towns and cities knew exactly what side Corbyn’s Labour Party was on: Palestine was more important than Preston.

And in NZ it is applause at international conferences rather than our towns and provincial cities.

It used to be that people joined the Labour Party to make their lives better off. Now they join to make someone else’s life better off.

What a great analysis. So true.

NZ Labour’s red wall has already crumbled in the provinces. Otaki, New Plymouth, Gisborne, Taupō should all be Labour-held seats. We need to look at the corrosive effects of a culture war. Environmentalism over equality. A sugar tax over a capital gains tax. Climate change over child poverty. Keep cups over mugs.

Corbyn is a warning about building support in liberal urban centres, but losing it in poorer regions.

Labour in the past has held the provincial seats of Rotorua, New Plymouth, Gisborne, Taupo, Whanganui, Wairarapa, Tukituki, Nelson and Invercargill.

Trevor Mallard had a bit of a lash at the Government in the adjournment debate over its use of urgency. He noted:

There’s been very nearly 30 hours of urgency and I want to make the point that probably having 28 hours of urgency was unnecessary if proper organisation and planning had occurred.

So the Speaker is saying 90% of the use of urgency was unnecessary if the Government had been more competent and planned ahead.

I want to say that there were only four hours of extended sittings, which, in my view, is a wasted opportunity to give better consideration of bills.

That’s also a damning stat. The Government can automatically take four hours of extended sitting a week, so could do 120 hours. And they only took four. National did masses of extended sittings to progress Treaty bills and other non controversial bills.

The almost total lack of extended sittings (which were meant to replace urgency) again shows how hopeless the Government has been in having a legislative programme. On several occasions they’ve had to filibuster their own bills as they weren’t ready for the next bil!

Newsroom reports:

Light rail along Auckland’s Dominion Rd is further behind than many might have thought, Dileepa Fonseka reports

Bids currently being considered for Auckland’s light rail project aren’t for a “specific solution” the Ministry of Transport’s CEO has said.

The CDPQ/NZ Infra consortium and NZTA submitted their competing bids for Auckland Light Rail last week but Ministry of Transport CEO Peter Mersi told a Transport and Infrastructure select committee on Thursday that the bids weren’t about routes or modes but the way the project would be administered.

“At this stage this process is about deciding who the preferred delivery partner will be not the specific solution.”

The revelation has taken commentators who have been watching the light rail saga by surprise. Greater Auckland editor Matt Lowrie said it was a “bizarre process”, urban geographer Ben Ross said “it seems the project is going in reverse”, while National Party Transport spokesman Chris Bishop said it was an indication that “we’re well away from actually building anything”. 

This is so Mickey Mouse.

Normally what you do is work out what you want, and then go out to tender to select a partner to build it.

This Government is selecting a partner to build something, and then once they selected them, will decide what that something is.

Almost 2,000 people have voted in the 2019 Kiwiblog Awards. The winners are:

• National MP of the year – Chris Bishop wins with 39% followed by Simon Bridges on 31%, Judith Collins 22% and Paul Goldsmith on 8%
• Labour MP of the Year – Kris Faafoi wins again with 39% followed by Phil Twyford 24%, Trevor Mallard 20% and Jacinda Ardern 17%
• Minor Party MP of the Year – David Seymour gets a landslide majority of 86% followed by 8% for Shane Jones and 6% for Winston Peters
• MP of the Year is no contest with David Seymour on 90% and Jacinda Ardern 10%.

Congratulations to the winners, and the runners up.

Radio NZ reports:

Sir Ron Brierley’s former deputy is staggered the New Zealand business tycoon has been arrested and charged in Australia for possessing child abuse material, he says.

Sir Ron, 82, was stopped at Sydney International Airport on Tuesday morning ahead of a flight to Fiji.

Border officials found child pornography on his laptop and electronic storage devices, leading police to lay six charges of possessing child abuse material.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, they had been acting on an anonymous tip and found more than 200,000 images and 512 videos.

That’s shocking and disgusting. If correct, that level of material suggests a very strong addiction.

Like most I was staggered when I heard the news. But maybe I shouldn’t have been:

In her 1990 biography Brierley, the Man Behind the Corporate Legend, Yvonne van Dongen wrote that he frequently travelled to Asia – mostly to Thailand – where he enjoyed encounters with young women – often teenage prostitutes.

“Brierley seems completely comfortable with this aspect of his life and showed no signs of embarrassment when teased about his frequent trips to Thailand,” the book says.

Teenage can mean anything from 13 to 19, which is a big difference. But as it is Thailand, I suspect it may have been towards the younger and illegal end.

Stuff reports:

Christchurch mayor Lianne Dalziel says she regrets not taking independent advice on her election return, but laughed off suggestions of an inquiry. 

Dalziel updated her election return on Wednesday with the names of six donors who made contributions over $1500 at a dinner and auction event in July.

She said on Thursday she took husband Rob Davidson’s advice on what she was required to declare.

The candidate is responsible for understanding the law, and signing off their declaration. Blaming it on your husband’s advice is naff.

Would a male politician get away with blaming an incorrect donation declaration on their wife?

Dalziel has been a candidate in eight parliamentary elections and two mayoral elections. One can’t claim ignorance of the rules.

And this is not a minor breach. One donation was for $17,000 – which is more than ten times the disclosure limit of $1,500.

The US House of Representatives has voted to impeach Donald Trump by 230 to 197 on the 1st count of Abuse of Power and 229 to 198 on Obstruction of Power.

The only two other President to be impeached were Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. Also Richard Nixon was about to be impeached before he resigned.

How justified has each impeachment been? Here’s my scoring:

• Andrew Johnson 2/10. All he did was ignore a clearly unconstitutional law saying he couldn’t fire a Cabinet Secretary. It should have been resolved in the Courts. Other charges were making speeches inciting hostility to Congress. Ridicolous.
• Richard Nixon 8/10. He covered up a criminal break in designed to help him politically, and used his office to try and do so.
• Bill Clinton 6/10. He lied under oath. That is a serious offence. However it was about something basically unrelated to his office – a sexual affair. So a line call, but on balance a reasonable impeachment.
• Donald Trump 9/10. Using your office to suspend congressionally approved military aid to a valuable US ally to pressure them to smear your domestic opponent is as close to a 10/10 as you can get. Worse unlike Clinton and Nixon who admit wrongdoing, Trump thinks it was fine.

Sadly the partisan nature of US politics today means the trial in the Senate is a formality. I supported Clinton’s impeachment not because he was a Democrat but because he lied under oath. Trump’s actions are so much worse I don’t see how anyone can support the Clinton impeachment but not Trump’s. Sure you can oppose both or support both, but you’d have to be wildly partisan to support Clinton’s and oppose Trump’s.

Feel free to give your own scores in the comments as to how you would score out of 10 the validity of the four “impeachments”.

TVNZ report:

Middlemore Foundation chief executive Sandra Geange said the National Burn Centre team, which is currently caring for eight of the 14 patients, has been stretched.

She made an appeal for donations to help “ease the immense pressure” while victims are undergoing lengthy and painful treatments, with many of them having to endure long periods in isolation due to a very high risk of infection.

“Middlemore Foundation are asking for money over goods to support this appeal, due to time and resource constraints. This is to speed up the process and provide support as fast as possible where needed.”

Unbelievable. The Government says it has spent far more on health, yet a public hospital has to call for donations to cover a core service of emergency treatment.

Only this Government could increase funding yet deliver worse outcomes – we have seen cancer waiting times increase, ED waiting times increase and vaccination rates drop.

It is not unusual for hospitals to ask for donations for new facilities such as a new children’s hospital. But I can’t recall before a hospital having to ask for donations to fund an emergency treatment service.

There is something wrong if the Government bureaucracy is so hidebound that Middlemore has to do this.

TVNZ report:

Police have now charged Thomas, 81, with sex offences including rape and indecent assault.

He has entered pleas of not guilty to the charges, which are historic, and has elected for trial by jury.

Presumably this has nothing to do with the Crewe murders, yet nevertheless this may make some people wonder about these still unsolved murders.

The maximum penalty for rape is life imprisonment. 

No it isn’t. Rape is a sub-set of sexual violation and S128B(1) of the Crimes Act 1962 states:

Every one who commits sexual violation is liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 20 years.

Mind you at 82 years of age, it may be the same thing – if convicted.

Note this is a jury trial, so don’t speculate about guilt or innocence around this particular case.

An excellent article at the Sydney Morning Herald about Topham Guerin and their role in Boris Johnson’s election victory. They managed to produce the Love Actually take off in under 24 hours which is impressive, especially as even Hugh Grant commented it had high production values.

Also interesting tactics such as deliberate spelling mistakes or using Comic Sans font purely so morons on Twitter would jump on them and highlight them, this spreading their underlying message virally.

Stuff reports:

The Labour Party inquiry into a former staffer’s alleged sexual assault found the allegation could not be substantiated.

The report, released on Wednesday, found inconsistencies in the alleged victim’s versions of events – particularly with regards to an email sent to the party.

It could not establish other allegations of sexual assault against the staffer but could substantiate complaints about “aggressive and overbearing” conduct, but this did not meet a criminal standard of bullying.

What a surprise.

Stuff understands a sexual assault counsellor told the prime minister’s office on Wednesday that at least two of the young people who participated in the review were at risk of harming themselves, and should be given more time to look at the report before it was released publicly.

The complainant said she was first alerted to the report’s imminent release in an email from a solicitor at 7.30pm on Tuesday. 

She said she and others in the survivor group asked the solicitor to go back to Labour and plead for more time. 

“We didn’t have enough notice,” the woman told Stuff.

Through tears, the woman said she was frantically worried about one of the other complainants, who had “gone AWOL” and had not been in contact with anyone since reading the report.

The woman said she had been told that any release process would be done with full collaboration with the complainant group.

“They haven’t done that. They have said this is what we are going to say, and they’ve gone ahead and done it anyway.”

Labour – the party that cares.

It was total coincidence of course they released it the day of the press gallery party.