The Herald reports:

Half the boats challenging for the America’s Cup will not make it to the start line in Auckland in 2021, according to a report.
Newshub have reported that all three teams that filed late entries have failed to get enough money together to stage a challenge.
“It is not surprising that some of the challenges aren’t going to make it to the start line,” America’s Cup veteran skipper Chris Dickson told Newshub.
“It’s an expensive game, the America’s Cup.”

It leaves Emirates Team New Zealand facing the prospect of losing millions of dollars.
Newshub reported that Malta’s entry is “dead in the water”, DutchSail is resorting to crowdfunding and California’s Stars and Stripes is currently drafting a media release announcing its withdrawal.
That would leave Luna Rosa, the challenger of record, INEOS Team UK, backed by Sir Ben Ainslie, and American Magic, from the New York Yacht Club.

Just three challengers. That must reduce greatly the claimed economic benefits of hosting. They’re saying the challengers haven’t officially withdrawn yet but neither have they paid the entry fee that was due.

Stuff reports:

ACT leader David Seymour was planning to oppose the speed of the new gun laws set to pass their first reading on Tuesday – but missed the motion as he was talking to media instead.

Oh dear. That is very embarrassing.

Stats NZ has released the nine measures of child poverty that the Government will use to measure progress. This post will look at the nine measures and what has happened to them under nine years of National and the first year of Labour.

1. Percentage of children in households with income under 50% of median, before housing costs. 156,000 in June 2008 and 156,000 in June 2017 so no increase under National (rate dropped 0.3%). In June 2018 increased by 27,000 and rate increased 2.3% for Labour’s first year.
2. Percentage of children in households with income under 50% of median, after housing costs. 329,000 in June 2009 (no data for 2008) and 247,000 in June 2017 so a drop of 82,000 under National (rate dropped 8.1%). In June 2018 increased by 7,000 and rate increased 0.4% for Labour’s first year.
3. Percentage of children in households in material hardship. 196,000 in June 2013 (no data before that) and 140,000 in June 2017 so dropped 56,000 under National (rate dropped 5.4%). In June 2018 increased by 8,000 and rate increased 0.6% for Labour’s first year.
4. Percentage of children in households with income under 60% of median, before housing costs. 252,000 in June 2008 and 243,000 in June 2017 so a drop of 9,000 under National (rate dropped 1.3%). In June 2018 increased by 38,000 and rate increased 3.2% for Labour’s first year.
5. Percentage of children in households with income under 60% of median, after housing costs. 355,000 in June 2008 and 314,000 in June 2017 so a drop of 41,000 under National (rate dropped 4.6%). In June 2018 increased by 27,000 and rate increased 2.2% for Labour’s first year.
6. Percentage of children in households with income under 50% housing costs for the base financial year. 258,000 in June 2008 and 236,000 in June 2017 so a drop of 22,000 under National (rate dropped 2.5%). In June 2018 increased by 18,000 and rate increased 1.4% for Labour’s first year.
7. Percentage of children in households with income under 40% housing costs for the base financial year. 156,000 in June 2008 and 178,000 in June 2017 so a increase of 22,000 under National (rate increased 1.6%). In June 2018 dropped by 4,000 and rate dropped 0.4% for Labour’s first year.
8. Percentage of children in households in severe material hardship. 84,000 in June 2013 (no data before that) and 74,000 in June 2017 so dropped 10,000 under National (rate dropped 1.0%). In June 2018 dropped by 9,000 and rate dropped 0.9% for Labour’s first year.
9. Percentage of children in households in material hardship and under 60% median income after housing costs. 96,000 in June 2013 (no data before that) and 86,000 in June 2017 so dropped 10,000 under National (rate dropped 1.1%). In June 2018 increased by 12,000 and rate increased 1.0% for Labour’s first year.
   

So let’s be very clear about this.

Child poverty under National dropped on seven of the nine measures, stayed static for one, and increased for one.

Child poverty in Labour’s first year increased on seven of the nine measures and dropped on only two of them.

Will the media report this with the same vigour as they did hundreds of stories claiming child poverty increased under National?

NB: Note the data is over a full year, not as at 30 June so the latest year includes three months of National and nine months of current Government.

Stuff reports:

“It is one of our most important and far-reaching relationships,” said Ardern. She said the New Zealand Labour Party, in particular, was “really proud of its record of engagement”, with China.
“We are particularly invested in the comprehensive strategic partnership, agreed during President Xi’s visit to New Zealand in 2014, and we are committed to advancing our ties,” Ardern said.

The PM is there as PM of New Zealand, not as the Leader of the Labour Party.

And note who was in Government in 2014 when the comprehensive strategic partnership was agreed?

“The New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement has significantly benefited both countries. China is now our largest trading partner and two-way trade recently exceeded $30 billion dollars for the first time, a significant milestone in the trading relationship.

And all credit to Clark and Goff for their finest foreign policy achievement – one that Winston Peters of course campaigned against despite being Foreign Minister at the time.

The Herald reports:

National Leader Simon Bridges is backing the Government’s plans to review New Zealand’s hate speech law but is warning against limiting free speech in the process.
Over the weekend, Justice Minister Andrew Little said he would fast-track a review of the Human Rights Act, which could see a crackdown on hate speech.
He said the current hate speech laws were not strong enough and needed to change.
Bridges said he agreed with Little having a look at the law and told RNZ: “I think he is doing the right thing having a review”.

But he warned against fast-tracking legislation that would change the law.
Bridges said that this type of legislation was “so fundamental to society that it can’t be rushed or fast-tracked”.
“Freedom of speech is so incredibly important to us as a society.”

Massey University regards Don Brash advocating against Maori seats as hate speech. If the law was changed, Brash would no doubt end up with multiple complaints laid against him with the Police, because people disagree with his advocacy.

Act Party Leader David Seymour is also advising caution on any changes to rules that might impact free speech.
“When the Government makes it its role to start working out which opinions are right and which are wrong and which ones should be punished, that’s when you get into real difficulty,” he told RNZ.
He said a new hate crime law would exacerbate divisions and fail to stamp out prejudice in New Zealand.

Does anyone think the UK is a less divided country, despite having had hate speech laws for a couple of decades?

The Taxpayers’ Union has announced:

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union today formally launches a major campaign to fight the unfair capital gains tax, proposed by Dr Michael Cullen’s Tax Working Group.
 
The Union is encouraging New Zealanders to go to axethistax.nz and use the email tool to tell Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters how the tax will hit their family.

Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says “The capital gains tax proposed by Dr Cullen and the Tax Working Group would be the least fair and most punitive in the world, and would apply to small businesses, farms, shares, and property. We are calling on the Government to Axe this Tax by rejecting the Working Group’s recommendations outright.”

“Our role in this campaign is to make it easier for taxpayers to navigate the Wellington bureaucracy to ensure politicians hear from those who will be personally affected by the tax. That’s why as a first step of the campaign we’re providing taxpayers with a tool to tell Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters to reject the capital gains tax.”
 
“This is also a public education campaign to increase awareness of the scope of the proposed tax. With the support of our thousands of donors, we have full page newspaper adverts running across the country and a major digital campaign launching today.”

If you don’t want Dr Cullen’s Capital Gains Tax, then go to axethistax.nz.

Stuff reports:

The Treasury says it has stopped publishing a regular report on the status of major public sector investments, despite acknowledging that might be viewed as a step back for transparency.
The “major project reports” were introduced in 2015 under the last National government to provide a quick view of whether major government investments, such as large information technology projects, were tracking to plan.
Projects were “colour-coded” from green to red to provide readers an easy means of assessing projects that were in trouble and they usually provided a short but candid assessment of their cost, benefits, progress and challenges.

They were really good. I would always read them. Really useful to see which major projects had the biggest risks around them.

But the Treasury has only now confirmed that what appeared to be a “hiatus” in their publication was in fact permanent.

That is a real shame.

The Herald reports:

Gareth Morgan has quit The Opportunities Party (TOP) after a dispute over how to spend a $50,000 donation that the party has given back to him.
But Morgan says the main reason he is leaving is not the dispute, but simply because it is time to pour energy into other projects.
Morgan has donated about $2 million to TOP to contest the 2017 election, and said he had put in about twice that amount overall, including what it took to set up the party from scratch.

A total of $2.29 million donated.

Asked if the party had been a dictatorship, Simmons said: “Gareth was the sole funder, the leader, and chair of the board. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.”

Code for yes.

One former TOP candidate thought the old military quote “We’re here to preserve democracy not practice it” applied wonderfully to Gareth.

“In my view, the leadership cannot be kumbaya, ‘let’s hold hands’ – that’s Green Party-type stuff. For me, it’s got to be hard-ass, straight between the eyes, ‘this is the best policy and tell me why it’s not, otherwise adopt it’.
“Geoff is far more conciliatory. He’s a really nice guy. He and the others, well, they’re not going to be like me. They’ll adopt a different approach, and whether that works I have no idea, but it’s up to them.”

A leader does need to be able to get media attention. But that doesn’t mean all publicity is good publicity.

Stuff reports:

Little said he was fast-tracking a widespread review of New Zealand’s existing hate speech legislation.
This would include deciding if hate crime should be established as its own separate offence, as it is in the United Kingdom.

The UK is a great example of how well intentioned laws end up criminalising many different types of speech. Some examples:

• An evangelist, was convicted because he had displayed to people in Bournemoutha large sign bearing the words “Jesus Gives Peace, Jesus is Alive, Stop Immorality, Stop Homosexuality, Stop Lesbianism, Jesus is Lord”. 
• A man was arrested in Cardiff for distributing pamphlets which called sexual activity between members of the same sex a sin
• Harry Taylor sentenced to six months prison (suspended) because he left anti-religious cartoons in the prayer-room of Liverpool’s John Lennon Airport on three occasions and the Chaplain complained
• A 19-year-old woman was convicted of sending a “grossly offensive” message after she posted rap lyrics that included the N-word on her Instagram page
• Scottish YouTuber Mark Meechan of Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire was fined £800 after being found “grossly offensive” for posting a YouTube video that was viewed over 3 million times depicting him training his girlfriend’s pug to respond to the phrase “Sieg Heil” by lifting his paw in a Nazi salute
• A student was arrested for saying to a mounted police officer “Excuse me do you know your horse is gay”
• A teenager was arrested for barking at two labradors, as the owner was non-white
• A teenager was prosecuted for holding up a placard that described the Church of Scientology as a cult
• A man was charged with racially aggravated criminal damage for writing “Don’t forget the 1945 war” on a UKIP poster
• An Essex baker Daryl Barke was ordered to take down a poster promoting English bread with the slogan “none of that French rubbish”, because the police believed it would stir up racial hatred
• An 11 year old boy was charged for calling a classmate a “Paki bastard” in a playground fight after being called a teletubby
• The North Wales Police Commissioner tried to prosecute a newspaper columnist for suggesting a Welsh bridge should be named something indecipherable with no real vowels, such as Ysgythysgymlngwchgwch Bryggy”.
• An Irish TV writer was visited by the Police because he used the pronoun “he” on Twitter to refer to a transgender woman.

These are just a few examples I’ve plagiarized from various columns and articles I could locate. There are no doubt many more.

We already have a law which states it is an offence to publish anything which is “likely to excite hostility or ill-will against, or bring into contempt or ridicule, any such group of persons in New Zealand on the ground of the colour, race, or ethnic or national origins of that group of persons”

Lowering the bar from exciting hostility will lead to court cases like the ones cited above. If the Government proceeds, it will be buying a huge battle.

Phil Twyford announced:

We announced on the 31st of January that we are recalibrating Kiwibuild and its targets.

The Coalition Government is now in a position to announce our new targets to demonstrate we are on track to deliver 100,000 homes over ten years for first home buyers.

The old and new targets are shown below:

• 1 July 2019 1,000 150
• 1 July 2020 6,000 750
• 1 July 2021 16,000 2,500
• 1 July 2022 28,000 5,000
• 1 July 2023 40,000 10,000
• 1 July 2024 52,000 20,000
• 1 July 2025 64,000 40,000
• 1 July 2026 76,000 60,000
• 1 July 2027 88,000 80,000
• 1 July 2028 100,000 100,000

This looks absolutely unrealistic. The Government is saying in their first term they’ll now manage only 2,500 houses (probably right) but in a second term they’ll build 15,000 (a stretch) and in a mythical third term they’ll magically build 60,000 houses.

Excellent.

Stuff reports:

A Hamilton City Councillor who wore an anti-vaccine t-shirt to an autism awareness event says she didn’t mean to cause offence.

That is pretty offensive. Basically she wore a t-shirt telling all the parents I think the reason your kids are autistic is because they were vaccinated.

But Siggi Henry, known for her strident anti-fluoride stance, is defending her anti-vaccination views, saying many parents are too accepting of medical advice.

Yeah, what has medical advice ever done for humanity, apart from increase life expectancy by 30 years or so.

A new Danish study has found that the MMR vaccination does not trigger or increase the risk of autism in children. The survey looked at more than half a million children born between 1999 and 2010 and is the single largest study on this topic to date.
Henry said she hadn’t heard of the study but later contacted Stuff to say she had read the study and that her views on the MMR vaccine hadn’t changed.
Henry uses a variety of Facebook groups to keep her informed on vaccines.

Need more be said.

Duncan Garner writes:

Yet right now she carries so much political capital she could probably pass two capital gains taxes but that’s not the point. This decision matters next year when Labour is heading into an election campaign.
The environment next year must not be confused with now. She won’t have political capital and trust like she does right now. She’ll also be selling climate change measures in a slowing economy and the jobless numbers could be rising. 
And let’s be honest the housing market has gone cold – especially in Auckland. This week at the lunchtime Bayleys Auction 8 out of 8 houses did not sell. 
And here’s the real reality check, there was not one bid on any house. Two apartments sold, one for barely the same price as 3 years ago. 
So the desired effect has happened, the housing market has cooled and first home buyers are back. It does not need a huge tax shift that could slow the economy even further. This economy needs certainty and confidence not a half baked tax shift that could backfire. 

House prices have naturally corrected. The market has been flat for a couple of years now.

A CGT will impose huge compliance costs on hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders and have little impact on house prices.

Yahoo reports:

At just 37, Pete Buttigieg has deployed to Afghanistan, graduated from Harvard, learned seven languages and serves as mayor of a Midwestern American city.
Now the Millennial Renaissance man is seeking to become the first openly gay president of the United States — and the youngest — a longshot 2020 prospect whose odds appear to improve by the week.

I was listening to a live recording of the popular US Politics Gabfest podcast and was amazed by how many people in the audience cheered when Buttigieg’s name was mentioned.

In theory someone who has never held higher office that Mayor of a small city (301st by population in the US) should have no chance. But hey Trump never held any elected office before President. The rules have changed.

Buttigieg happens to be gay but isn’t campaigning as an identity politics activist (which upsets some on the left). His military service, earnestness, and sheer intelligence has gathered him a cult following.

He draws sharp contrasts with Trump on multiple fronts including age, government experience, military service, campaign style, and “intellectual curiosity,” she added.
“Every single thing about him is in diametric opposition” to the president, she said.
Buttigieg is relishing his breakout moment, fuelled by a star turn headlining a recent town hall that saw his national profile skyrocket.
Bookish and smart, he refutes the charge that he’s too young and inexperienced to compete in the diverse Democratic field, or against Trump himself.
“I have more years of government experience under my belt than the president… and more military experience than anybody to walk into that office on day one since George H.W. Bush,” he said at the event, broadcast by CNN.
“So I get that I’m the young guy in the conversation, but I would say experience is what qualifies me to have a seat at this table.”

Not lacking confidence.

In Iowa, Buttigieg surged from one percent support to 11 percent and third place in Emerson Polling’s survey released Sunday, behind former vice president Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders and ahead of more prominent candidates like senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren.

One huge advantage Buttigieg will have is no voting record on national issues to attack.

CNBC reports:

The United States became the world’s biggest oil producer in 2018, and over the next five years, the nation will take aim at becoming the top oil exporter, according to the International Energy Agency.
IEA forecasts U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products will nearly double, hitting about 9 million barrels per day by 2024. At that level, the U.S. will surpass Russia’s shipments and threaten to unseat Saudi Arabia, the current top exporter.

That’s incredible. For decades the US was totally dependent on oil from the Middle East. Now they will be producing more than Saudi Arabia thanks to fracking technology.

Pulling ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia in exports would further erode their influence in the oil market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have formed an alliance in recent years, coordinating oil production among OPEC and other oil-producing countries. The so-called OPEC+ alliance has capped output for much of the last two years, helping to boost oil prices after a punishing downturn.

OPEC is basically a cartel. The less market power they have, the better it is for consumers.

Stuff reported:

The trial of a new form of public transport in one of Auckland’s wealthiest suburbs is praying for rain after making a slow start.
AT LOCAL, which is a New Zealand-first, is a new form of public transport that’s currently being trialled for a year at an estimated cost of $1.3 million.
The Uber-style service provided by Auckland Transport allowed residents of Devonport to request a pick-up via an online app by one of five dedicated electric vehicles which then takes them home or to a nearby ferry wharf.
But after three months the number of people expected to use the service on a weekly basis have not even reached half of the modest target set by Auckland Transport.

So ratepayers have paid $1.3 million for a service run by the Council which is near identical to Uber.

Global News reports:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to have suffered more damage from the SNC-Lavalin scandal than U.S. President Donald Trump has from the Russia investigation, hush money payments to a porn star, alleged campaign finance violations, threats of impeachment proceedings and the litany of new investigations launched by Democrats.
That’s according to a new Ipsos poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, which found that Trudeau’s approval rating (40 per cent) has now slipped below Trump’s (43 per cent), even as the Conservative Party established a double-digit lead over the Liberals.

Even worse is the voting preference which is 40% Conservatives, 30% Liberals, 21% NDP. And women have deserted them the most – only 28% of women now voting Liberal.

Current odds are:

1. Environment Secretary Michael Gove 7:2
2. Cabinet Office Minister David Liddington 6:1
3. Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson 6:1
4. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt 10:1
5. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab 12:1
6. Home Secretary Sajid Javid 12:1
7. Work & Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd 49:1

Matthew Hooton writes:

There are theoretically four candidates to replace Peters but, if there is a change, NZ First MPs have no more choice than National MPs with Judith Collins, than to anoint Shane Jones.
While more internationalist than Peters, Jones would need to respect NZ First’s heritage by becoming the champion of globalisation’s victims and broadening the party’s appeal to small business owners — the so-called “white vans”. Jones’ Labour background might help attract its remaining conservative males.
If Peters accepts change is needed to assure his legacy, he may agree to forgo the leadership but try to remain Deputy Prime Minister. This would be a mistake.
If Jones is to get NZ First back above 5 per cent, it must be him voters see alongside Ardern over the next 18 months. He must become as much part of the political furniture as Peters for so many years. Bad behaviour won’t work post-March 15.

So Hooton argues Jones must become Deputy Prime Minister in order for NZ First to survive.

That would be very interesting indeed.