The Herald reports:

It will be “many decades” before New Zealand sees a substantial change in the road toll, says Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter.

Her comments come after New Zealand experienced its highest road toll since 2009, with almost 400 deaths last year.

This must set a new record in terms of Ministerial impotence.

To claim that nothing the Government does will have an impact for at least 30 years is both pathetic and of course wrong.

The road toll in fact was decreasing for the last few decades. It is only since 2013 that it has started to increase again. So all the Government needs to do is work out what has changed in the last few years.

Now compare the pathetic excuses the Minister is now making with her statement of nine months ago:

No loss of life is acceptable, is the message behind the development of the Government’s new road safety strategy, says Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter.

The development of the new strategy was announced today at the Local Government Road Safety Summit in Wellington.

“As part of the development of a new road safety strategy the Government will investigate setting a target of zero road deaths,” says Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter.

“I accept that a target of zero death would be audacious, but ambitious targets are need to focus the resources of both central and local government to save lives on our roads.

So nine months ago the Government was saying that we can get the road toll down to zero and that should be out target. Now they’re saying it is all too hard and will take many many decades to make any significant change.

This graph shows the road toll per 10,000 vehicles. It shows the Minister is absolutely off the reservation when she says it takes many decades to make a significant difference. From 1989 to 2013 the road toll declined massively.

If this Government honestly believes that they can’t make any difference to the road toll, then they should resign to allow in Ministers who don’t accept defeat after just twelve months.

Incidentally if your sole focus is to reduce the road toll, this is quite easy to achieve. You merely set a maximum speed limit of say 30 km/hrs. You could even require all vehicles to be fitted with technology to limit their speed,

Of course this would massively reduce the value of road transport and have huge personal and economic costs. So this is why road safety policy is a balancing act. How do you decrease accidents without unduly reducing the benefits of road travel.

You could pass a law requiring no car more than five years old to be certified for use. This would reduce the road toll massively but means that poorer families couldn’t afford cars.

You could upgrade every open road to modern standards with median barriers etc. That would cost billions but would definitely reduce the road toll.

You could increase the penalty for drink driving to mandatory jail time. That would reduce drink driving considerably and reduce deaths.

None of these changes would take decades to work. Some would have an impact within months.

The issue is policy. Do the benefits outweigh the costs.

Stuff reports:

Primary school children in the United Kingdom will be taught that all genders can have periods under new sex education guidelines that aim to tackle the stigma around menstruation.

Brighton & Hove City Council has released a report advising teachers that “menstruation must be inclusive of all genders”, as “trans boys and men and non-binary people may have periods”.

That’s going to lead to some fun discussions at home:

“Daddy, do you menstruate”
“Umm, no I don’t”
“Why not Daddy, is there something wrong with you”

UPDATE: The original story has been corrected, and was misleading. They now advise:

This story initially quoted the report as stating”menstruation must be inclusive of all genders”. This was incorrect and the article has been updated. The headlines and intros has also been updated to better reflect the content of the report.

So not that much of a story after all it seems.

Marc Thiessen, a conservative columnist, has done (as he did for 2017 also) a list of the ten best things Trump did in 2018. He will also do a list of the ten worst things Trump did. I like the format of the ten best and worst as it gives you a better picture than just reading the diehard fanboys and the diehard haters.

The ten best are:

1. He stood by Brett M. Kavanaugh and even in the worst moments never wavered.
2. He pulled out of Obama’s disastrous Iran deal and reimposed crippling sanctions on Tehran.
3. He’s continued his tough line with Moscow.
4. He struck Syria again and eliminated the last vestiges of the Islamic State’s physical caliphate.
5. In the six months after the Singapore summit with North Korea, he has made no concessions to Pyongyang.
6. His push to expand domestic energy production bore fruit.
7. He has ushered in a golden age for women in the CIA.
8. He worked with Democrats and Republicans to pass important legislation.
9. He delivered for the “forgotten Americans.
10. He has secured the release of 19 people, including 16 Americans, from foreign captivity.

Stuff has done their annual predictions. I’ve quoted them below, with my comments in italics.

1. No brothers or sisters for baby Neve this year but we’re predicting there be will be some more additions to the Parliament family after another couple of MPs announce they have babies on the way. DPF: Easy. Of course with 120 MPs and 120 partners, someone will be pregnant.

2. National MPs will lose their nerve partway through the year after the party’s poll ratings start to slide. And they will install Judith Collins as leader on a promise to destabilise Jacinda Ardern’s leadership.

3. The Euthanasia Bill will pass with NZ First’s support but its implementation will be subject to the country supporting it in a referendum. DPF: Agree

4. Ardern will have a cabinet reshuffle and promotions will include emerging star Kris Faafoi, plus the surprise return of veteran MP Ruth Dyson to address the lack of senior women cabinet ministers. Rookie MP Deborah Russell will make the biggest jump from the back bench. DPF: Agree with Faafoi and Russell. Dyson may be needed more where she is as Senior Whip.

5. NZ First’s Shane Jones will spend increasing amounts of time (and money) in Northland, in preparation to be lined up to contest the Northland seat with the understanding that if he wins he will be the successor to Winston Peters. DPF: Agree

6. The bullying inquiry led by Debbie Francis will find a widespread culture of bullying in Parliament and the Beehive, heralding a long overdue beef up of protections for ministerial and parliamentary staff. DPF: Not sure what protections one can do.

7. Ardern will be forced to sack another minister due to an ethical scandal. DPF: Very likely

8. A Government backbench MP will have their wings clipped after becoming embroiled in a personal issue.

9. The fallout from the Karel Sroubek deportation scandal will continue into the new year. DPF: Of course

10. Resignations among National’s old guard will continue and there will be some surprises with at least one triggering a by-election. Movements will prompt a reshuffle and promotions will include up and comers Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop. DPF: Willis and Bishop are both doing well.

11. National will trigger the waka jumping bill to remove Jami-Lee Ross from Parliament after he becomes a thorn in their side following his return to Parliament. DPF: Whether it gets triggered will depend on what JLR does when he returns.

12. The Government is going to park their promise of abortion reform for fear of alienating its conservative South Auckland Pasifika vote. 

13. A majority of the tax working group will recommend some kind of extension of a capital gains tax, with a series of exemptions and carve outs. But the campaign against the tax will grow until Labour abandons meaningful tax reform. DPF: Hopefully

14. There will not be 1000 KiwiBuild homes built by the Government’s deadline of July 1. Things won’t be looking much better by the end of 2019. DPF: Of course not

15. Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson will adopt a soapbox cause that will have co-leader James Shaw scrambling to carry out damage control. DPF: Highly likely

16. Despite success in their flagship Zero Carbon Bill, the Greens will round out the year in the exact same position at around six per cent popularity.

17. Attempts to find friends for National will see two new parties emerge as contenders – a Vernon Tava-led environment party and a party targeting the Christian and Pasifika vote to leverage off the Christian vote mobilised by the euthanasia, cannabis and abortion reform debates. DPF: There is a real gap for an environmental party that is not hard left, not centrist. Any Christian party though will be competing with the New Conservatives.

18. NZ First MP Fletcher Tabuteau is made a minister as the jockeying between him and Shane Jones to succeed NZ First leader Winston Peters heats up. DPF: Only if there is a vacancy. Could Peters sack Ron Mark and replace him with Tubuteau?

19. Peters will lose the legal battle over the leak of his superannuation details, claim victory, and the Government will have to pick up the tab for National MPs’ expenses. DPF: Pretty likely.

20. Teachers will call off their strikes in February but the Government will continue to be plagued by industrial action. DPF: Not sure they will be called off.

The Guardian reports:

The government is launching a new campaign to try to convince the UK’s smokers that vaping is safe and a good way to quit, in a bid to counter the scepticism generated by some scientific studies and media headlines.
Public Health England (PHE), which maintains that vaping is 95% safer than tobacco, is releasing a short video of an experiment which reveals the amount of sticky black tar that accumulates in the lungs of a heavy smoker, collected in a bell jar. By contrast, the same nicotine intake through vaping releases only a trace of residue.
“It would be tragic if thousands of smokers who could quit with the help of an e-cigarette are being put off due to false fears about safety,” said Prof John Newton, director of health improvement at PHE.
“We need to reassure smokers that switching to an e-cigarette would be much less harmful than smoking. This demonstration highlights the devastating harms caused by every cigarette and helps people see that vaping is likely to pose only a fraction of the risk.”

Good to see a public health organisation focused on harm reduction and good science.

In spite of PHE’s assertions about the safety of vaping, which are cited around the world, public confidence in e-cigarettes has fallen. Just over 40% of people believe they are as harmful as smoking or say they don’t know. 

An ignorance which may be fatal.

As today saw the release of the latest batch of Royal honours, I thought it would be timely to have a look at the members of the Order of New Zealand. This is our highest honour and restricted to 20 living New Zealanders.

Basically those in this list should be considered our greatest sons and daughters. But are they?

Let’s be clear. All of them have done things which make them worthy of an honour. They have all made significant contributions to New Zealand. But would they be one of our 20 greatest?

So let’s look at the 19 current members and I’ll give them a rating from 0 to 10 for whether I think they should be there. A 10 would be Sir Edmund Hillary. A 5 would be just on the line for inclusion.

• Dame Miriam Dell 7/10
• Sir Miles Warren 8/10
• Dame Kiri Te Kanawa 9/10
• Jim Bolger 5/10
• Ken Douglas 3/10
• Mike Moore 5/10
• Cardinal Thomas Williams 5/10
• Jonathan Hunt 1/10
• Lloyd Geering 2/10
• Sir Kenneth Keith 8/10
• Sir Murray Halberg 8/10
• Sir Don McKinnon 6/10
• Helen Clark 6/10
• Sir Robert Charles 9/10
• Albert Wendt 6/10
• Sir Ron Carter 5/10
• Sir Peter Gluckman 6/10
• Richie McCaw 7/10
• Joy Cowley 8/10

Feel free to include your own scores in comments. Again all these people have done very significant things, well beyond what probably any of us commenting have done. But this is about whether their achievements puts them into the top 20 NZers. Also feel free to say who you think is missing, that should be included.

The New Years Honours List in full is here.

The top tier awards are:

GNZM
To be a Knight Grand Companion of the said Order:
Sir Stephen Robert Tindall, KNZM, of Auckland. For services to business, the community, and the environment.

DNZM
To be Dames Companion of the said Order:
Distinguished Professor Margaret Anne Brimble, CNZM, of Auckland. For services to science.
Ms Diana Buchanan Crossan, of Wellington. For services to the State.
Ms Kerry Leigh Prendergast, CNZM, JP, of Wellington. For services to governance and the community.
Ms Gaylene Mary Preston, ONZM, of Wellington. For services to film.

KNZM
To be Knights Companion of the said Order:
Dr Ian Bruce Hassall, of Auckland. For services to the welfare of children.
Mr Robert Arnold McLeod, of Auckland. For services to business and Māori.
Mr Timothy Richard Shadbolt, JP, of Invercargill. For services to local government and the community.
Mr Robert Kinsela Workman, QSO, of Levin. For services to prisoner welfare and the justice sector.

Interesting choices with Sir Tim Shadbolt and Sir Kim Workman, but congratulations to them and their families.

Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2019:

1. NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019
2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party.
3. By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
4. At least one National List MP will retire in 2019
5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum
6. At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019
7. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019
8. A new political party will be registered in 2019
9. TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll
10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18
11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax
12. Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia
13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019
14. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2019
    
15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down
17. The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure
18. Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government
19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet
20. The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019

Stuff reports:

For many communities the days of bringing your own beer or wine to race meetings are already over, but proposed new legislation could see them return and keep police out of meddling in future events. 

A new members billl, to be put forward by MP for Hutt South Chris Bishop, aims to clarify the law around BYO alcohol areas at race meetings. 

“A glass of wine or beer in the sun with some chips and dip is a Kiwi tradition. Some race meets have allowed BYO for more than 135 years,” he said in a statement.

Yep. I recall a great day at the Castlepoint races a few years ago. A few beers while watching the horses compete.

Bishop said in a statement that his bill would allow families and communities to carry on the tradition of chilly bin and a hamper at the races.
“My bill makes it clear that racing clubs and race meetings are not the intended targets of section 235 of the Sale and Supply of Liquor Act. The bill provides an exemption from section 235 for racing clubs on the days of race meetings when the club holds either an on-licence or an on-site special licence that applies to the race meeting.”
Earlier in the year, Racing Minister Winston Peters attacked ‘bureaucratic shiny bums’ who were interfering in BYO alcohol at race meetings, Bishop said.
“This is a common sense change to the law that will essentially allow the status quo at community run race meets to continue.”

As usual Peters is good at attacking problems but never does anything to fix them. So Bishop has done what Peters should have done as Minister.

In fact the bill is based on the report from the NZ Racing Board to the Minister.

So will NZ First back this bill. It will pass into law, if they do.

The Herald reports:

Whaitiri says there are certain parts of the report she agrees with, but others she “actively continues to challenge”.
“In this country, we have a hierarchy; white men, white women, brown men, brown women, and sometimes brown women have to talk extra loud to be heard,” the MP said.

By talk extra loud, does she mean assault her own press secretary?

It is remarkable that Whaitiri is both trying to portray herself as a victim, but also is playing the race and sex card.

The reality is that Whaitiri was a Minister of the Crown. She had one of the loudest voices of anyone in New Zealand – white, brown, male or female. A Minister can command attention and the media more than 99% of New Zealanders could ever hope to.

So to have her trying to paint herself as a victim in what happened is rather sad. The press secretary was the victim, not the Minister.

Only in the UN could this not be a joke.

Saudi Arabia on the Board for Gender Equality is like North Korea being on a board for disarmament.

Here’s some of the ways women have “equality” in Saudi Arabia:

• Girls and women are forbidden from traveling, conducting official business, education, employment opening a bank account and undergoing certain medical procedures without permission from their male guardians
• Women in public must cover all of their body except their hands and eyes
• Women who socialise with men can be charged with adultery, fornication or prostitution
• Women must enter and exit through special doors in banks, restaurants and other public places
• A woman can only testify in a court of law if six men vouch for them
• Children belong to the father not the mother
• Daughters inherit one half that of sons
• Victims of rape often charged with indecent behaviour

Stuff reports:

Furious principals say they will march on Parliament in protest at the most radical restructuring in 30 years, saying the proposals will destroy schooling as New Zealand knows it.

Good. The public need to know how radical and destructive these changes will be. It will be lowest common denominator where no school will be allowed to be different or better than other schools.

But at some of the bigger secondary schools, especially in Auckland, anger is mounting. In this week’s strongly-worded attack, Macleans College principal Steven Hargreaves wrote to parents and staff in the holidays to say the proposed changes would “destroy the school system in New Zealand as we know it”.

It will be a triumph for central control and ending effective parental involvement in schools.

Taking power away from boards would create “bland, one-size-fits-all” institutions and destroy the role of communities in schools, Hargreaves said.
He called on parents to oppose the recommendations and said parents had already been quick to voice their backing for him.
Parents wanted to know they could have an impact on their children’s education through the board of trustees’ parent representatives, he said. “To think that that’s going to be passed over to another faceless bureaucracy is what really worries them,” he said.

These 20 education hubs will all be run by people directly appointed by the Minister. How many principals whose views are contrary to the Minister will survive such a purge?

Hoping all Kiwiblog readers have a very Merry Christmas and get to spend quality time with family or friends.

In December 2017 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2017 I scored myself 12/20. How did 2018 go?

1. NZ First will be on or below 5% in most public polls in 2018: Not exceeded 5% in a single poll 1/1
2. Bill English will remain National Party Leader: Didn’t take long for that to be wrong 0/1
3. By the end of 2018 the Government will not have achieved even 1% of its ten year targets for houses or trees: They need 1,000 houses and 10 million trees. They have built 33 houses. They have directly funded 7.6 million trees for planting so that is a double fail and 1/1
4. At least three National List MPs will retire in 2018: English, Joyce and Finlayson: 1/1
5. Eugenie Sage will be elected Greens female co-leader. I over-estimated their judgment. 0/1
6. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading. Has been delayed. Could argue a half mark as not been defeated but will score 0/1
7. At least one Minister will be gone by the end of the year: Only one! 1/1
8. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2018. Correct 1/1
9. A new political party will be registered in 2018. Conservative Party changed their name but not close enough so 0/1
10. Geoff Simmons will be annointed or elected Leader of TOP: Elected. 1/1
11. The Green Party will have a new Chief of Staff in 2018. No change. 0/1
12. The Government will increase the operating allowances for future years in the 2018 Budget. Of course they did. 1/1
13. Lance O’Sullivan will be elected male co-leader of the Maori Party. Not yet anyway 0/1
14. The Tax Working Group will recommend a Capital Gains Tax. Cullen has said they are so I’m giving this 1/1
15. There will be a leadership spill in the Australian Liberal Party. Heh too easy. 1/1
16. NZ First will declare there were no donations received over $15,000 to the Electoral Commission. And we believe them. 1/1
17. Lisa Owen will be the next Political Editor for Newshub. Got Checkpoint instead 0/1
18. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2018 will be the same or higher than September 2017. Nope well down. 0/1
    
19. An electorate MP will resign their seat in 2018 triggering a by-election. Thank you Dr Coleman 1/1
20. An MP will get pregnant in 2018. I picked it first! 1/1

I got 12/20 again.