Latest poll

May 26th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The latest poll, a Roy Morgan, is on Curiablog.

It was taken pre-Budget and shows Labour on 25.5%, under half the level of National.

curiappa

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Lord Ashcroft analyses the UK election result

May 23rd, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Two interesting blog posts of Lord Ashcroft – the results of his post-election poll and a speech he gave to a post-election conference.

Some data from the poll:

  • Conservatives lost among under 55s, and won massively with over 65s. Labour got just 21% of over 65s.
  • Conservatives won in socio-economic classes AB and C1, tied in C2 and lost only in DE.
  • The most important factors in how people voted were trust of motives and values 75%, preferred promises 62%, the leader 45%
  • Most important issues were the NHS 55%, economic growth 51%, immigration 41%, cutting deficit 30%, cost of living 25%, welfare reform 20%, Europe 18%, schools 13%, environment 9%, crime 6%
  • 46% say austerity needs to continue, 30% say austerity was needed but no longer and 24% say austerity was never needed
  • Even 60% of Labour voters say austerity and spending cuts were needed

 

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Why the UK polls were wrong

May 9th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

ukpolls

As you can see the UK pre-election polls were wrong. Quite massively wrong. The Conservatives beat Labour by 6% and have won a clear majority. Only one poll of of the several dozen in the last few weeks got close to this. The poll were near unanimous that the Conservatives and Labour would be tied in the vote, and Conservatives would get only a few more seats. Instead they got 98 more.

So why were the polls do wrong? Not one poll, but almost all of them. There three broad plausible explanations – which are not mutually exclusive.

1 – People lie to the pollsters

Someone tweeted that the British have shown the one thing they’re really good at is lying to their pollsters.  A more polite version of this is what the Guardian calls Shy Tories. People don’t like to admit they are voting for a party. One has seen this in the US when one candidate is African-American. Also in NZ to a degree where I suspect one of the reasons NZ First often exceeds the polls, is people don’t like to admit they are voting for them.

But I think it is unlikely this explains most or even much of what happened.

2 – People change their mind

Either the undecideds decide to vote a certain way disproportional to the already decideds, or some decideds change their mind. One reason for this is tactical voting. This is why ACT keep winning Epsom despite poll after poll showing them behind. People only get tactical at the last minute.

Major newspapers published guides as to how to tactically vote to maximise the outcome for your preferred PM. This could have had quite an impact.

However while I think this may have been some of it, I don’t think it was the major factor. Even in seats where there was no ability to vote tactically (no major third party), you saw the Conservatives pick up seats off Labour.

3 – Turnout was different

Turnout was higher than expected in many areas. If one side does better at turning out their supporters, this can have a big impact.

In NZ the impact of Dotcom was to so enrage Government supporters, they advance voted in record numbers – determined to keep him out.

If you look at the motivations to vote in the UK for Conservative and Labour voters, they were quite different. Conservative voters had a pretty strong motivation to vote to keep Ed Miliband out, and to stop a party which wants to dissolve the United Kingdom, from holding the balance of power. A Mliband Government propped up by the SNP was very scary to many.

However if you are a Labour supporter, your best outcome was a Labour minority government that could only govern with the SNP’s votes. This is hardly motivating stuff.

So I suspect (we’ll know more as we get more data) that the major difference was turnout.

 

Of some interest is that in several elections now, it has been the more right wing parties that have exceeded their polls. In Israel Likud did massively better than the polls, as did the Conservatives in the UK. In the 2014 US mid-terms the Republicans did far better in the Senate than projected. And even in NZ National did better than the polls (but within margin of error). I’m not saying this is significant – just that it could be. Or it could just be chance. In one Victorian state election the Liberal Party did far far worse than the polls, and in NZ in 2011 National did a bit worse than the polls. But

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April 2015 public polls

May 5th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

apr15polls

The parties are very close to where they were three years ago with Labour and Greens down slightly and NZ First up.

The executive summary of the newsletter is:

There were three political voting polls in April – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a NZ Herald DigiPoll.

 The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in April, up 3% from March. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 50 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating for foreign policy increases on the back of the draft Iran deal.  The country direction remains strongly negative. Jeb Bush remains just ahead of Scott Walker in support for the Republican nomination.

In the UK the Conservatives look likely to win more seats than Labour on 7 May but Labour appears to be in a better position to form Government as the SNP are on track to win almost every seat in Scotland, and have said they will not allow the Conservatives to govern.

In Australia the Coalition regain a bit of support, but still trail Labor. Abbott’s approval ratings have improved significantly but remain negative – as do Bill Shorten’s.

In Canada the Conservatives are better placed than a year ago to retain power, as they enter the final six months before the October 19 election.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Ports of Auckland, the NZ Flag, the surplus, Iraq and euthanasia plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to this page to subscribe yourself.

 

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Latest poll

April 29th, 2015 at 6:30 am by David Farrar

The NZ Herald has a Digipol out this morning. I’ve blogged it on Curiablog.

It was taken from 17 April to 26 April half before and after massive publicity around the pony tail story.

The results must be very depressing for Labour. National increases slightly from December to 51%. Yes halfway through Year 7, and on 51%. Labour are below 30% on 28.7%.

There is little change from their last poll in December, except Peters is now just 2% behind Little as Preferred PM. Little has a lower level of support as Preferred PM than both Shearer and Cunliffe managed.

Overall National is 22% ahead on the party vote and Key is 51% ahead as Preferred PM.

curiappa

This shows the average of all the public polls.

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Latest poll

April 19th, 2015 at 7:35 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll. It has National remaining at 49%.

For a couple of weeks now sections of the print media have been doing regular columns on how the Government is in crisis, has to regain control, running on empty, needs a circuit breaker to get past the malaise, MPs are so worried they’re having sleepless nights etc.

You’d think the Government was trailing the opposition, rather than being 18% ahead of Labour.

In fact half way through their seventh year, National is polling 4% higher than the 45% they entered office with in 2008. That is an exceptional result.

If we compare to the last Government, in May 2006 the Labour Government was at 38% and National opposition at 47%. So they were 9% behind, while the Government today is 18% ahead (or 9% ahead if you include Greens).

It would be interesting to look at news stories from May 2006 and see if they were describing the then Labour Government in as negative terms, as National has been described in the last few weeks.

Now this does not mean the Government is going to win the next election. Normally I’d say a party has no better than a 20% chance of getting a fourth term. However National’s current chances are a bit better than 50/50 I’d say. Far far from certain, but in a strong position.

Hopefully some of the commentary of the last few weeks may become more reality based – the reality being that what matters to most New Zealanders is very different to what excites the “beltway”. Once again, it is about the economy, jobs, incomes, schools, leadership, hospitals etc.

Tonight’s poll basically has no change in the party vote from February. The one area where there was significant change was Preferred PM. Andrew Little went down 1% to 11% and Winston went up 3% to 10%. So the main impact of the by-election has been Andrew Little coming close to ceding the title of opposition leader to Winston Peters.  Labour may want to reflect on the difference between a strategic decision and a tactical one.

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First poll in Cuba in 50 years

April 14th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Miami Herald has details of how a poll was done in Cuba recently, despite it being illegal to do so. The methodology sounds very impressive- great effort was made for it to be accurate. The 18 surveyors were at considerable risk in conducting the poll.

The results of the poll were fascinating, as the first publication of actual opinion in Cuba. Key findings include:

  • Only 19% satisfied with the joys of a socialist economic system, and 79% dissatisfied
  • 44% have a positive opinion of Fidel Castro and 50% a negative opinion
  • 47% have a positive opinion of Raul Castro and 48% a negative opinion
  • 80% have a positive opinion of Barack Obama and 17% a negative opinion
  • 32% have a positive opinion of the Cuban Communist Party and 58% a negative opinion
  • 64% want to travel abroad and 37% want to open their own business
  • 55% would like to live in another country
  • 53% say the US is a friend of Cuba and 10% say not a friend

Shows why we should distinguish between the Cuban people, and their Government.

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March 2015 public polls

April 8th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

marpolls

Curia’s monthly polling newsletter is out. The summary is:

There was one political poll in March – a Roy Morgan.

The average of the public polls has National 16% ahead of Labour in March, down 2% from February. The current seat projection is centre-right 59 seats, centre-left 52 which would see the centre parties hold the balance of power.

In Australia Abbott’s approval rating improves this month, but is still strongly negative.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating continues to improve, especially on the economy and health care. Country direction remains strongly negative. Scott Walker shoots up to 2nd place in the polls for the Republican nomination.

In the UK the election is too close to call. You need 326 seats to govern. Current predictions have the anti-Conservative forces for Labour, SNP and Greens on 322. Labour would need both the SNP and Liberal Democrats to govern while the Conservatives would need the Lib Dems, UKIP and most of the Northern Ireland seats.

In Canada the Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals in terms of projected seats, but Harper has declining approval ratings.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Northland and foreign drivers plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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Northland poll

March 25th, 2015 at 9:40 pm by David Farrar

I have details at Curiablog of the 3 News Northland poll. Key findings are:

  • Peters 54%, Osborne 34%
  • National’s bridge upgrade pledge – 74% say it is a bribe but 58% want the bridges
  • 48% say Peters can’t be trusted and 43% say he can be

So two lots of semi-contradictory results. Most Northlanders say they don’t trust Peters but they will vote for him.

And most Northlanders say they think the proposed bridge upgrades are a bribe, but nevertheless they want them.

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UMR’s mood of the nation

March 15th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

A lot of interesting data in UMR’s annual mood of the nation. It includes:

  • Average country right direction in 2014 was 62% to 28% wrong direction
  • The most followed political news story (after the election result) was the Shane Jones Countdown allegations. The MP that bailed on Labour as he no longer fitted got their most impacting story
  • Gap between National and Labour went from 10% in 2013 to 18% in 2014
  • The least trusted institution is trade unions at 23%, below organised religion at 27%
  • 62% of NZers now own a smartphone
  • 76% are on Facebook, 30% on Linked In and 22% on Google Plus and Twitter
  • Net approval ratings of world leaders is Obama +70%, Merkel +37%, Cameron +30%, Abbott +7%, Putin -64%
  • The level of interest in various sports is rugby 71%, netball 51%, league 47% and cricket 45%
  • Only 23% of NZers could correctly name Jim Bolger as the PM in 1994. More people thought it was Clark or Shipley.
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February 2015 public polls

March 12th, 2015 at 12:22 pm by David Farrar

febpolls

Just published the February newsletter. The summary is:

There were two political polls in February – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls has National 18% ahead of Labour in February, down 5% from January. The current seat projection is centre-right 62 seats, centre-left 51 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition has regained some support but Abbott’s net approval ratings have plummeted 28% in just one month after the spill against him. In NSW the incumbent coalition Government look likely to be re-elected.

In the United States the country mood has been improving in recent months, and Obama’s approval rating for economic management has improved. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while Jeb Bush is slightly ahead of the large pack seeking the Republican nomination. 

In the UK Labour and the Conservatives are tied in the polls. However Labour is forecast to win more seats and to be able to form a Government with the SNP.

In Canada the Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals in terms of projected seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Wellington amalgamation, Islamic state, alcohol advertising and sponsorship plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

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How the polls did last year

March 9th, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

final-result-chart2

I only noticed this chart on Friday, but Andrew at Grumpolie looked at how the polls and polls of polls did, compared to the election result.

The Herald Digipoll was best overall. Of the poll of polls, the methodology I used did fairly well.

Not on the chart is how iPredict did. It was very accurate in 2011, but in 2014 was well out with a total error of 12.3%.

Overall the public polls under-estimated support for National and NZ First, were slightly too high for Labour and way too high for the Greens.

Andrew also made the point:

The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring – the polls that came closest only call landlines. It’s just one of many potential sources of error that pollster’s need to consider. Here’s another post about this, if anyone is interested in finding out why it’s not such a big deal.

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3 News Northland poll

March 5th, 2015 at 9:21 pm by David Farrar

The details of the Northland poll are at Curiablog.

They show Peters 5% ahead of Osborne with 19% undecided. Obviously a very good result for Peters. The key will be what do the undecided voters do.

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Wairarapa businesses on amalgamation

February 27th, 2015 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Wairarapa Times-Age reports:

The Wairarapa Chamber of Commerce is backing the super-city model.

In a statement on Wednesday, chief executive Steph Gundersen-Reid said their surveys showed 65 per cent supported the Local Government Commission’s draft proposal to create a Greater Wellington Council.

“We’ve listened to our members and engaged with the business community across the Wairarapa,” she said.

“Many of them support the proposal and understand that we must seize the opportunity to benefit the Wairarapa.”

Their surveys, conducted since December 2014, showed that most were in favour of some form of change to the current model.

A reader has e-mailed me some correspondence with the Chamber, which details they had a 20.6% response rate from their approx 220 members.

That means 45 replies.

The margin of error on 45 responses out of 220 for a 65% support is 12.5%.

To have the normal 95% confidence level, a sample of 136 would be needed. So the results are indicative but not conclusive.

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Public Polls January 2015

February 9th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

pollsjan15

The average of the public polls since 2012.

The monthly newsletter was published yesterday. The summary is:

There were two political polls in January – a Roy Morgan and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, up 3% from December. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 46 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition is 8% behind Labour as Abbott battles to remain Leader and Prime Minister.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating has improved but is still negative. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while the withdrawal of Mitt Romney sees no front runner for the Republicans. 

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 1%.For the first time in some years they are no longer forecast to get a majority.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, but are projected to win slightly fewer seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on summer holiday dates and leadership attributes plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

Correspondence and feedback is also welcome to the same address.

 

 

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Getting too excited

February 4th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Barry Soper at NewstalkZB reports:

And they’re also luxuriating in the new found popularity of their leader in the latest opinion poll which sees Andrew Little the most popular leader since Helen Clark. Given the other three incumbents since her, it’s hardly reason for popping the champagne corks just yet.

Andrew Little is not the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark. We’ve had several days of claims such as this, based on an incredibly modest poll result.

On one particular indicator (capable leader) he got a 54% rating. Yes that is 1% above Phil Goff’s initial rating. But being seen as capable is far from being proclaimed popular.

On the Preferred PM indicator which is the indicator of popularity, Little got 9.8%. Cunliffe was on 12.3%. Shearer made 12.6%.  Goff made 12.4%.   He is not the most popular. He is yet to poll higher than any of them.

Now don’t get me wrong. I think Little has had a solid start and is a capable leader. However proclaiming him as the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark is just daft. He isn’t (yet anyway). The public at best have an open mind on him.

His capable leader rating is basically the same as Goff started on. Goff them made a series of bad calls, and his ratings plummeted. Little’s challenge is to not do the same.

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First TV poll

February 2nd, 2015 at 7:35 am by David Farrar

3 News had a poll last night. Details are at Curiablog.  National and Labour up and Greens and Conservatives down. On the poll National could govern alone.

National’s lead over Labour is 21%. By comparison in the same poll in 2006 (Labour’s third term), their lead over National was just 6%.

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1st poll of 2015

January 23rd, 2015 at 8:03 pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan have released the first poll of 2015. National is up 6% to 52% – exactly double Labour and 15% ahead of Labour/Greens combined.

Of importance is that 67% of respondents said NZ is heading in the right direction and only 23% in the wrong direction.

This is an incredibly strong position to be in at the start of one’s third term.

If we look at the first poll of 2006, in Labour’s third term, Labour were actually 2% behind National.

Despite the positive publicity in the media for Little, he has yet to make a difference to Labour’s polls.

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How the pollsters did

September 22nd, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

table-1

These tables are from Grumpollie. The Herald DigiPoll was closest for National, One News Colmar Brunton for Labour, Herald Digipoll for Greens and NZ First.

table-2

 

On the provisional results, the Herald DigiPoll was exceedingly accurate. A wee way back were One News Colmar Brunton, Roy Morgan and Fairfax Ipsos. 3 News Reid Research was noticeably further out.

However overall not too bad a result overall for the public pollsters. Grumpollie notes:

  1. Well done DigiPoll.
  2. Looking at these results, I see no evidence of the ‘National bias’ that some people talk about.
  3. If there is any poll bias, it appears to be toward the Green Party.
  4. The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring.

Hopefully we’ll hear less now of how the landline polls over estimate National!

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Projected MPs for 2014 Parliament

September 19th, 2014 at 10:19 am by David Farrar

This is a projection of who may be in Parliament based on the average of the polls, and using the seat projections of iPredict (I don’t actually agree with all of them, but they are the only complete source of public predictions so I use them).

Those in bold are not current MPs.

National – 58 seats, 40 electorates, 18 list

  1. Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye
  2. Bay of Plenty – Todd Muller
  3. Botany – Jami-Lee Ross
  4. Clutha-Southland – Todd Barclay
  5. Coromandel – Scott Simpson
  6. East Coast – Anne Tolley
  7. East Coast Bays – Murray McCully
  8. Hamilton East – David Bennett
  9. Hamilton West – Tim Macindoe
  10. Helensville – John Key
  11. Hunua – Andrey Bayly
  12. Ilam – Gerry Brownlee
  13. Invercargill – Sarah Dowie
  14. Kaikoura – Stuart Smith
  15. Maungakiekie – Pesata Sam Lotu-Iiga
  16. Nelson – Nick Smith
  17. New Plymouth – Jonathan Young
  18. Northcote – Jonathan Coleman
  19. Northland – Mike Sabin
  20. North Shore – Maggie Barry
  21. Otaki – Nathan Guy
  22. Pakuranga – Maurice Williamson
  23. Papakua – Judith Collins
  24. Rangitata – Jo Goodhew
  25. Rangitikei – Ian McKelvie
  26. Rodney – Mark Mitchell
  27. Rotorua – Todd McClay
  28. Selwyn – Amy Adams
  29. Tamaki – Simon O’Connor
  30. Taranaki-King Country – Barbara Kuriger
  31. Taupo – Louise Upston
  32. Tauranga – Simon Bridges
  33. Tukituki – Craig Foss
  34. Upper Harbour – Paula Bennett
  35. Waikato – Lindsay Tisch
  36. Waimakariri – Matthew Doocey
  37. Wairarapa – Alastair Scott
  38. Waitaki – Jacqui Dean
  39. Whangarei – Shane Reti
  40. Whanganui – Chester Borrows
  41. List 1 – Bill English
  42. List 2 – David Carter
  43. List 3 – Steven Joyce
  44. List 4 – Hekia Parata
  45. List 5 – Chris Finlayson
  46. List 6 – Tim Groser
  47. List 7 – Michael Woodhouse
  48. List 8 – Nicky Wagner
  49. List 9 – Paul Goldsmith
  50. List 10 – Melissa Lee
  51. List 11 – Kanwal Bakshi
  52. List 12 – Jian Yang
  53. List 13 – Alfred Ngaro
  54. List 14 – Brett Hudson
  55. List 15 – Paul Foster-Bell
  56. List 16 – Jo Hayes
  57. List 17 – Parmjeet Parmar
  58. List 18 – Chris Bishop

Labour – 32 seats, 27 electorates, 5 list

  1. Christchurch Central – Tony Milne
  2. Christchurch East – Poto Williams
  3. Dunedin North – David Clark
  4. Dunedin South – Clare Curran
  5. Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta
  6. Hutt South – Trevor Mallard
  7. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Meka Whaitiri
  8. Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni
  9. Mana – Kris Faafoi
  10. Mangere – Su’a William Sio
  11. Manukau East – Jenny Salesa
  12. Manurewa – Louisa Wall
  13. Mt Albert – David Shearer
  14. Mt Roskill – Phil Goff
  15. Napier – Stuart Nash
  16. New Lynn – David Cunliffe
  17. Palmerston North – Iain Lees-Galloway
  18. Port Hills – Ruth Dyson
  19. Rimutaka – Chris Hipkins
  20. Rongotai – Annette King
  21. Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare
  22. Te Atatu – Phil Twyford
  23. Te Tai Hauauru – Adrian Rurawhe
  24. Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene
  25. West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor
  26. Wellington Central – Grant Robertson
  27. Wigram – Megan Woods
  28. List 1 – David Parker
  29. List 2 – Jacinda Ardern
  30. List 3 – Clayton Cosgrove
  31. List 4 – Sue Moroney
  32. List 5 – Andrew Little

Greens – 16 seats, 16 list

  1. List 1 – Metiria Turei
  2. List 2 – Russel Norman
  3. List 3 – Kevin Hague
  4. List 4 – Eugenie Sage
  5. List 5 – Gareth Hughes
  6. List 6 – Catherine Delahunty
  7. List 7 – Kennedy Graham
  8. List 8 – Julie Anne Genter
  9. List 9 – Mojo Mathers
  10. List 10 – Jan Logie
  11. List 11 – David Clendon
  12. List 12 – James Shaw
  13. List 13 – Denise Roche
  14. List 14 – Steffan Browning
  15. List 15 – Marama Davidson
  16. List 16 – Barry Coates

NZ First – 10 seats, 10 list

  1. List 1 – Winston Peters
  2. List 2 – Tracey Martin
  3. List 3 – Richard Prosser
  4. List 4 – Fletcher Tabuteau
  5. List 5 – Barbara Stewart
  6. List 6 – Clayton Mitchell
  7. List 7 – Denis O’Rourke
  8. List 8 – Pita Paraone
  9. List 9 – Ron Mark
  10. List 10 – Darroch Ball

Internet Mana – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

  1. Te Tai Tokerau – Hone Harawira
  2. List 1 – Laila Harre

Maori Party – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

  1. Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell
  2. List 1 – Marama Fox

ACT – 1 seat, 1 electorate

  1. Epsom – David Seymour

United Future – 1 seat, 1 electorate

  1. Ohariu – Peter Dunne
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The 2014 election polls

September 19th, 2014 at 9:30 am by David Farrar

2014pollvoteav

 

This table shows the last five polls from the five public pollsters. The average is shown, as is the weighted average (which takes into account recency and size).

National is projected to get between 44.5% and 48.2%, which is a a range within the margin of error. Note though these polls only partially include polling since the “Moment of Truth” on Monday night.

Labour is projected to get between 24.0% and 26.1%.

Greens are projected to get between 11.0% and 14.4%.

NZ First are projected to get between 6.6% and 8.4%.

Conservatives are projected to get between 3.3% and 4.9%

Internet Mana are projected to get between 0.9% and 2.0%

2014pollseatav

 

These seat projections take the party vote figures from each poll, but a standard assumption for electorate seats of the status quo.

National is projected to get between 56 and 61 seats.

Labour is projected to get between 30 and 33 seats.

Greens are projected to get between 14 and 18 seats.

NZ First are projected to get between 8 and 11 seats.

Internet Mana are projected to get between 1 and 3 seats.

In terms of coalitions, the findings are:

  • No polls predict National can govern alone
  • Two out of five say National could form a CR Government with ACT and United Future (if they win their electorate seats)
  • Four out of five say National could form a CR Government with ACT, United Future and Maori Party, if the Maori Party hold their seats and decide to go with National
  • No polls show that Labour, Greens and NZ First could form a Government
  • One poll says that Labour, Greens, NZ First and Internet Mana could form a Government
  • The average of the polls predicts National could govern either with NZ First alone or with ACT, United Future and the Maori Party (status quo)
  • The average of the polls predicts Labour could govern, but only with the agreement of Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party

These options are very finely balanced. A change in the party vote of just 1% would make a difference to what sort of government can be formed. If the Maori Party win less than their current three electorate seats, or if ACT, Mana, or United Future do not hold their electorates – that will have a significant impact on the possible shape of a Government.

Labour’s decision to rule out any ministerial roles for the Maori Party may turn out to be an incredibly stupid move for them, as it makes them far more reliant on support from Internet Mana. A Labour-Green-NZ First combination (Cunliffe’s stated option) is between three and six seats short of a majority in the polls. On average they are four seats short. This means that they realistically can not govern or pass laws (if they form a Government) without the agreement of Internet Mana. Internet Mana would of course support them to be Government (even if not Ministers) but they would have a effective veto on every law.

These polls show every vote could count. A change of just 1% could mean that NZ First hold the balance of power. If you have not voted, bote today or vote tomorrow.

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Two more polls

September 17th, 2014 at 6:48 pm by David Farrar

Two more polls out today, on Curiablog.

curiappa

The weighted average is above, of the last five polls. The CR has 62, CL 50 and centre parties 11.

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Latest poll

September 14th, 2014 at 11:09 am by David Farrar

The Sunday Star-Times has published the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll, which is at Curiablog. It has Labour at a new low of 22.4%.

curiappa

On the average of the polls, a centre-right government has a very slim majority. They have 63 seats and need 62. After that then the Maori Party or NZ First hold balance of power, unless the Conservatives make 5%.

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Two more polls

September 12th, 2014 at 6:11 am by David Farrar

Two more polls last night and this morning are at Curiablog.

curiappa

The weighted average of the polls shows a tight race. The centre right parties could just govern – 62 seats out of 123. After that you would need Maori Paty, NZ First or Conservatives if they make 5%. The centre left parties have 51 seats.

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Latest poll

September 11th, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Have blogged the 3 News poll at Curiablog.

Conservatives up up 0.5% to 4.7%. This isn’t a significant change (70% probability it is an increase), but it does suggest their chances of making 5% are getting better and better.

curiappa

The average of all the public polls is above.

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