Latest poll

July 27th, 2015 at 7:49 am by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the 3 News Reid Research poll broadcast last night.

Like the One News Colmar Brunton poll the previous week, it shows no bounce for Labour from its targeting of people with Chinese surnames.

What it does show is that Andrew Little has fallen below Winston Peters as Preferred Prime Minister.

This is a feat never achieved by Phil Goff, David Shearer or David Cunliffe.

The last time an Opposition Leader failed to poll in the top two as Preferred Prime Minister was in October 2003 – 12 years ago. Later that month he was rolled in a coup.

So the results of Labour’s concede Northland to Winston strategy has been to have their leader fall into third place behind Winston as Preferred PM.

And the results of their decision to highlight home buyers with Chinese surnames has been to achieve nothing in the polls, but alienate many Chinese New Zealanders.

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No bounce for Labour

July 20th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll.

A 1% lift for Labour is statistically insignificant, so there week of headlines on blaming the Chinese for Auckland house prices has come to nought.

Some journalists were saying this could be Labour’s Orewa. The week after Don Brash’s Orewa speech saw National go up 17% in the polls, not 1%.

Here’s a comparison of the One News poll with previous ones:

Jul-15 3 mths 3 years 9 years
National 47% 49% 48% 45%
Labour 32% 31% 32% 43%
PM 40% 42% 45% 39%
Opp Ldr 8% 11% 13% 14%

Both National and Labour are polling at much the same level as both 3 months ago and 3 years ago. If you go back to nine years ago (when Labour were in their third term), the opposition party was 2% ahead of the Government, not 15% below.

As for Preferred PM, Ket is at much the same level Clark was at nine years ago. But Little is polling worse than David Shearer three years ago and Don Brash nine years ago.

 

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June public polls

July 8th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

From Curia’s monthly newsletter:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 86, June 2015

There was one political voting poll in June – a Roy Morgan.

The average of the public polls has National 24% ahead of Labour in June, up 3% from May. The current seat projection is centre-right 63 seats, centre-left 48 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Donald Trump has shot to 2nd place in the Republican field. Clinton’s approval rating continues to decline, and Obama’s foreign policy approval is also declining.

In the UK David Cameron has positive approval at the start of his second term. Current views on the EU are 51% want the UK to remain, 31% leave and 17% undecided.

In Australia a large fall in approval ratings for Bill Shorten, so he now lags behind Tony Abbott.

In Canada with less than four months to go until the federal election, the NDP have taken a dramatic lead in the polls, and could end up forming the government for the first time since they formed in 1961.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls on trust in occupations plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

 

The poll average for the last three years is below.

junepolls

Bit of a trend for Labour.

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Latest poll

June 24th, 2015 at 10:46 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged the latest poll at Curia.

On it National would have 62 seats, Labour 32, Greens 16 and NZ First 8.

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May public polls

June 3rd, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

maypolls

The latest monthly polling newsletter is out. The high level summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 85, May 2015

There were three political voting polls in May – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 21% ahead of Labour in May, up 2% from April. The current seat projection is centre-right 63 seats, centre-left 49 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Clinton’s favourability goes negative for the first time, on the back of scrutiny of donations to the Clinton Foundation. Walker takes the lead from Bush in the Republican race.

In the UK the Conservatives have increased 3% since the election. Current views on the EU are 45% want the UK to remain, 38% leave and 18% undecided

In Australia the country direction has improved significantly in May, after the recent budget. Abbott’s approval also improving.

In Canada following their win in Alberta, the NDP are increasing support throughout the country.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the NZ Head of State, 2015 Budget, John Key’s ponytail pulling and the recent tax changes on property plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

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Latest poll

June 3rd, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The 3 News Reid Research poll released last night is now on Curia.

The weighted average of the recent polls has the CR on 62 seats, CL on 49 seats and 10 seats with centre parties.

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Latest poll

June 2nd, 2015 at 12:08 pm by David Farrar

Details of the latest (One News Colmar Brunton) poll are on Curia’s new website.

There is little change in the party vote despite both pony tails and Budgets.

However Andrew Little is now tied (dropping to 9%) with Winston Peters as Preferred PM.

The last time the Opposition Leader dropped behind (or tied) a third party leader as Preferred PM was Bill English in 2003.

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Latest poll

May 26th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The latest poll, a Roy Morgan, is on Curiablog.

It was taken pre-Budget and shows Labour on 25.5%, under half the level of National.

curiappa

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Lord Ashcroft analyses the UK election result

May 23rd, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Two interesting blog posts of Lord Ashcroft – the results of his post-election poll and a speech he gave to a post-election conference.

Some data from the poll:

  • Conservatives lost among under 55s, and won massively with over 65s. Labour got just 21% of over 65s.
  • Conservatives won in socio-economic classes AB and C1, tied in C2 and lost only in DE.
  • The most important factors in how people voted were trust of motives and values 75%, preferred promises 62%, the leader 45%
  • Most important issues were the NHS 55%, economic growth 51%, immigration 41%, cutting deficit 30%, cost of living 25%, welfare reform 20%, Europe 18%, schools 13%, environment 9%, crime 6%
  • 46% say austerity needs to continue, 30% say austerity was needed but no longer and 24% say austerity was never needed
  • Even 60% of Labour voters say austerity and spending cuts were needed

 

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Why the UK polls were wrong

May 9th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

ukpolls

As you can see the UK pre-election polls were wrong. Quite massively wrong. The Conservatives beat Labour by 6% and have won a clear majority. Only one poll of of the several dozen in the last few weeks got close to this. The poll were near unanimous that the Conservatives and Labour would be tied in the vote, and Conservatives would get only a few more seats. Instead they got 98 more.

So why were the polls do wrong? Not one poll, but almost all of them. There three broad plausible explanations – which are not mutually exclusive.

1 – People lie to the pollsters

Someone tweeted that the British have shown the one thing they’re really good at is lying to their pollsters.  A more polite version of this is what the Guardian calls Shy Tories. People don’t like to admit they are voting for a party. One has seen this in the US when one candidate is African-American. Also in NZ to a degree where I suspect one of the reasons NZ First often exceeds the polls, is people don’t like to admit they are voting for them.

But I think it is unlikely this explains most or even much of what happened.

2 – People change their mind

Either the undecideds decide to vote a certain way disproportional to the already decideds, or some decideds change their mind. One reason for this is tactical voting. This is why ACT keep winning Epsom despite poll after poll showing them behind. People only get tactical at the last minute.

Major newspapers published guides as to how to tactically vote to maximise the outcome for your preferred PM. This could have had quite an impact.

However while I think this may have been some of it, I don’t think it was the major factor. Even in seats where there was no ability to vote tactically (no major third party), you saw the Conservatives pick up seats off Labour.

3 – Turnout was different

Turnout was higher than expected in many areas. If one side does better at turning out their supporters, this can have a big impact.

In NZ the impact of Dotcom was to so enrage Government supporters, they advance voted in record numbers – determined to keep him out.

If you look at the motivations to vote in the UK for Conservative and Labour voters, they were quite different. Conservative voters had a pretty strong motivation to vote to keep Ed Miliband out, and to stop a party which wants to dissolve the United Kingdom, from holding the balance of power. A Mliband Government propped up by the SNP was very scary to many.

However if you are a Labour supporter, your best outcome was a Labour minority government that could only govern with the SNP’s votes. This is hardly motivating stuff.

So I suspect (we’ll know more as we get more data) that the major difference was turnout.

 

Of some interest is that in several elections now, it has been the more right wing parties that have exceeded their polls. In Israel Likud did massively better than the polls, as did the Conservatives in the UK. In the 2014 US mid-terms the Republicans did far better in the Senate than projected. And even in NZ National did better than the polls (but within margin of error). I’m not saying this is significant – just that it could be. Or it could just be chance. In one Victorian state election the Liberal Party did far far worse than the polls, and in NZ in 2011 National did a bit worse than the polls. But

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April 2015 public polls

May 5th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

apr15polls

The parties are very close to where they were three years ago with Labour and Greens down slightly and NZ First up.

The executive summary of the newsletter is:

There were three political voting polls in April – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a NZ Herald DigiPoll.

 The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in April, up 3% from March. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 50 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating for foreign policy increases on the back of the draft Iran deal.  The country direction remains strongly negative. Jeb Bush remains just ahead of Scott Walker in support for the Republican nomination.

In the UK the Conservatives look likely to win more seats than Labour on 7 May but Labour appears to be in a better position to form Government as the SNP are on track to win almost every seat in Scotland, and have said they will not allow the Conservatives to govern.

In Australia the Coalition regain a bit of support, but still trail Labor. Abbott’s approval ratings have improved significantly but remain negative – as do Bill Shorten’s.

In Canada the Conservatives are better placed than a year ago to retain power, as they enter the final six months before the October 19 election.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Ports of Auckland, the NZ Flag, the surplus, Iraq and euthanasia plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to this page to subscribe yourself.

 

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Latest poll

April 29th, 2015 at 6:30 am by David Farrar

The NZ Herald has a Digipol out this morning. I’ve blogged it on Curiablog.

It was taken from 17 April to 26 April half before and after massive publicity around the pony tail story.

The results must be very depressing for Labour. National increases slightly from December to 51%. Yes halfway through Year 7, and on 51%. Labour are below 30% on 28.7%.

There is little change from their last poll in December, except Peters is now just 2% behind Little as Preferred PM. Little has a lower level of support as Preferred PM than both Shearer and Cunliffe managed.

Overall National is 22% ahead on the party vote and Key is 51% ahead as Preferred PM.

curiappa

This shows the average of all the public polls.

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Latest poll

April 19th, 2015 at 7:35 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll. It has National remaining at 49%.

For a couple of weeks now sections of the print media have been doing regular columns on how the Government is in crisis, has to regain control, running on empty, needs a circuit breaker to get past the malaise, MPs are so worried they’re having sleepless nights etc.

You’d think the Government was trailing the opposition, rather than being 18% ahead of Labour.

In fact half way through their seventh year, National is polling 4% higher than the 45% they entered office with in 2008. That is an exceptional result.

If we compare to the last Government, in May 2006 the Labour Government was at 38% and National opposition at 47%. So they were 9% behind, while the Government today is 18% ahead (or 9% ahead if you include Greens).

It would be interesting to look at news stories from May 2006 and see if they were describing the then Labour Government in as negative terms, as National has been described in the last few weeks.

Now this does not mean the Government is going to win the next election. Normally I’d say a party has no better than a 20% chance of getting a fourth term. However National’s current chances are a bit better than 50/50 I’d say. Far far from certain, but in a strong position.

Hopefully some of the commentary of the last few weeks may become more reality based – the reality being that what matters to most New Zealanders is very different to what excites the “beltway”. Once again, it is about the economy, jobs, incomes, schools, leadership, hospitals etc.

Tonight’s poll basically has no change in the party vote from February. The one area where there was significant change was Preferred PM. Andrew Little went down 1% to 11% and Winston went up 3% to 10%. So the main impact of the by-election has been Andrew Little coming close to ceding the title of opposition leader to Winston Peters.  Labour may want to reflect on the difference between a strategic decision and a tactical one.

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First poll in Cuba in 50 years

April 14th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Miami Herald has details of how a poll was done in Cuba recently, despite it being illegal to do so. The methodology sounds very impressive- great effort was made for it to be accurate. The 18 surveyors were at considerable risk in conducting the poll.

The results of the poll were fascinating, as the first publication of actual opinion in Cuba. Key findings include:

  • Only 19% satisfied with the joys of a socialist economic system, and 79% dissatisfied
  • 44% have a positive opinion of Fidel Castro and 50% a negative opinion
  • 47% have a positive opinion of Raul Castro and 48% a negative opinion
  • 80% have a positive opinion of Barack Obama and 17% a negative opinion
  • 32% have a positive opinion of the Cuban Communist Party and 58% a negative opinion
  • 64% want to travel abroad and 37% want to open their own business
  • 55% would like to live in another country
  • 53% say the US is a friend of Cuba and 10% say not a friend

Shows why we should distinguish between the Cuban people, and their Government.

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March 2015 public polls

April 8th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

marpolls

Curia’s monthly polling newsletter is out. The summary is:

There was one political poll in March – a Roy Morgan.

The average of the public polls has National 16% ahead of Labour in March, down 2% from February. The current seat projection is centre-right 59 seats, centre-left 52 which would see the centre parties hold the balance of power.

In Australia Abbott’s approval rating improves this month, but is still strongly negative.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating continues to improve, especially on the economy and health care. Country direction remains strongly negative. Scott Walker shoots up to 2nd place in the polls for the Republican nomination.

In the UK the election is too close to call. You need 326 seats to govern. Current predictions have the anti-Conservative forces for Labour, SNP and Greens on 322. Labour would need both the SNP and Liberal Democrats to govern while the Conservatives would need the Lib Dems, UKIP and most of the Northern Ireland seats.

In Canada the Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals in terms of projected seats, but Harper has declining approval ratings.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Northland and foreign drivers plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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Northland poll

March 25th, 2015 at 9:40 pm by David Farrar

I have details at Curiablog of the 3 News Northland poll. Key findings are:

  • Peters 54%, Osborne 34%
  • National’s bridge upgrade pledge – 74% say it is a bribe but 58% want the bridges
  • 48% say Peters can’t be trusted and 43% say he can be

So two lots of semi-contradictory results. Most Northlanders say they don’t trust Peters but they will vote for him.

And most Northlanders say they think the proposed bridge upgrades are a bribe, but nevertheless they want them.

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UMR’s mood of the nation

March 15th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

A lot of interesting data in UMR’s annual mood of the nation. It includes:

  • Average country right direction in 2014 was 62% to 28% wrong direction
  • The most followed political news story (after the election result) was the Shane Jones Countdown allegations. The MP that bailed on Labour as he no longer fitted got their most impacting story
  • Gap between National and Labour went from 10% in 2013 to 18% in 2014
  • The least trusted institution is trade unions at 23%, below organised religion at 27%
  • 62% of NZers now own a smartphone
  • 76% are on Facebook, 30% on Linked In and 22% on Google Plus and Twitter
  • Net approval ratings of world leaders is Obama +70%, Merkel +37%, Cameron +30%, Abbott +7%, Putin -64%
  • The level of interest in various sports is rugby 71%, netball 51%, league 47% and cricket 45%
  • Only 23% of NZers could correctly name Jim Bolger as the PM in 1994. More people thought it was Clark or Shipley.
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February 2015 public polls

March 12th, 2015 at 12:22 pm by David Farrar

febpolls

Just published the February newsletter. The summary is:

There were two political polls in February – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls has National 18% ahead of Labour in February, down 5% from January. The current seat projection is centre-right 62 seats, centre-left 51 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition has regained some support but Abbott’s net approval ratings have plummeted 28% in just one month after the spill against him. In NSW the incumbent coalition Government look likely to be re-elected.

In the United States the country mood has been improving in recent months, and Obama’s approval rating for economic management has improved. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while Jeb Bush is slightly ahead of the large pack seeking the Republican nomination. 

In the UK Labour and the Conservatives are tied in the polls. However Labour is forecast to win more seats and to be able to form a Government with the SNP.

In Canada the Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals in terms of projected seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Wellington amalgamation, Islamic state, alcohol advertising and sponsorship plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

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How the polls did last year

March 9th, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

final-result-chart2

I only noticed this chart on Friday, but Andrew at Grumpolie looked at how the polls and polls of polls did, compared to the election result.

The Herald Digipoll was best overall. Of the poll of polls, the methodology I used did fairly well.

Not on the chart is how iPredict did. It was very accurate in 2011, but in 2014 was well out with a total error of 12.3%.

Overall the public polls under-estimated support for National and NZ First, were slightly too high for Labour and way too high for the Greens.

Andrew also made the point:

The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring – the polls that came closest only call landlines. It’s just one of many potential sources of error that pollster’s need to consider. Here’s another post about this, if anyone is interested in finding out why it’s not such a big deal.

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3 News Northland poll

March 5th, 2015 at 9:21 pm by David Farrar

The details of the Northland poll are at Curiablog.

They show Peters 5% ahead of Osborne with 19% undecided. Obviously a very good result for Peters. The key will be what do the undecided voters do.

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Wairarapa businesses on amalgamation

February 27th, 2015 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Wairarapa Times-Age reports:

The Wairarapa Chamber of Commerce is backing the super-city model.

In a statement on Wednesday, chief executive Steph Gundersen-Reid said their surveys showed 65 per cent supported the Local Government Commission’s draft proposal to create a Greater Wellington Council.

“We’ve listened to our members and engaged with the business community across the Wairarapa,” she said.

“Many of them support the proposal and understand that we must seize the opportunity to benefit the Wairarapa.”

Their surveys, conducted since December 2014, showed that most were in favour of some form of change to the current model.

A reader has e-mailed me some correspondence with the Chamber, which details they had a 20.6% response rate from their approx 220 members.

That means 45 replies.

The margin of error on 45 responses out of 220 for a 65% support is 12.5%.

To have the normal 95% confidence level, a sample of 136 would be needed. So the results are indicative but not conclusive.

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Public Polls January 2015

February 9th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

pollsjan15

The average of the public polls since 2012.

The monthly newsletter was published yesterday. The summary is:

There were two political polls in January – a Roy Morgan and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, up 3% from December. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 46 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition is 8% behind Labour as Abbott battles to remain Leader and Prime Minister.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating has improved but is still negative. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while the withdrawal of Mitt Romney sees no front runner for the Republicans. 

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 1%.For the first time in some years they are no longer forecast to get a majority.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, but are projected to win slightly fewer seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on summer holiday dates and leadership attributes plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

Correspondence and feedback is also welcome to the same address.

 

 

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Getting too excited

February 4th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Barry Soper at NewstalkZB reports:

And they’re also luxuriating in the new found popularity of their leader in the latest opinion poll which sees Andrew Little the most popular leader since Helen Clark. Given the other three incumbents since her, it’s hardly reason for popping the champagne corks just yet.

Andrew Little is not the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark. We’ve had several days of claims such as this, based on an incredibly modest poll result.

On one particular indicator (capable leader) he got a 54% rating. Yes that is 1% above Phil Goff’s initial rating. But being seen as capable is far from being proclaimed popular.

On the Preferred PM indicator which is the indicator of popularity, Little got 9.8%. Cunliffe was on 12.3%. Shearer made 12.6%.  Goff made 12.4%.   He is not the most popular. He is yet to poll higher than any of them.

Now don’t get me wrong. I think Little has had a solid start and is a capable leader. However proclaiming him as the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark is just daft. He isn’t (yet anyway). The public at best have an open mind on him.

His capable leader rating is basically the same as Goff started on. Goff them made a series of bad calls, and his ratings plummeted. Little’s challenge is to not do the same.

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First TV poll

February 2nd, 2015 at 7:35 am by David Farrar

3 News had a poll last night. Details are at Curiablog.  National and Labour up and Greens and Conservatives down. On the poll National could govern alone.

National’s lead over Labour is 21%. By comparison in the same poll in 2006 (Labour’s third term), their lead over National was just 6%.

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1st poll of 2015

January 23rd, 2015 at 8:03 pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan have released the first poll of 2015. National is up 6% to 52% – exactly double Labour and 15% ahead of Labour/Greens combined.

Of importance is that 67% of respondents said NZ is heading in the right direction and only 23% in the wrong direction.

This is an incredibly strong position to be in at the start of one’s third term.

If we look at the first poll of 2006, in Labour’s third term, Labour were actually 2% behind National.

Despite the positive publicity in the media for Little, he has yet to make a difference to Labour’s polls.

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