Latest poll

April 19th, 2014 at 3:06 pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan reports:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large jump in support for National (48.5%, up 5.5%) now with its largest lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, down 5%) since July 2013 …

Support for the Labour Party has fallen to 28.5% (down 3.5%) – clearly the lowest support under new Labour Leader David Cunliffe, and the lowest Labour support since April 2012 …

Also of interest:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 143pts (up 10pts) with 65% (down 4%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 22% (down 6%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

I guess New Zealanders are not as fascinated over Oravida, as Labour are.

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March public polls

April 1st, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

marpolls

 

The above graphs tracks all the public polls since the election, averaging them out every month. The trend for Labour over the last six months is quite pronounced.

The newsletter summary is:

 

There were five political polls in March – a One News Colmar Brunton poll, a Fairfax Reid Research poll, a NZ Herald Digipoll and two Roy Morgan polls.

The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour in March, the same margin as in February. The current seat projection is centre-right 64 seats, centre-left 56 which would see National form a Government.

In Australia Labor retains a narrow lead, but there have been improvements in the national mood.

In the United States President Obama’s numbers are stable overall but dipping for handing of foreign policy – probably due to the Ukraine crisis.

In the UK Labour’s lead has dipped to just 3% in the wake of a generally positive budget for the Government. David Cameron’s ratings are also increasing.

In Canada the Liberals remain ahead in the polls, but no party is projected likely to win a majority.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the Kim Dotcom, the NZ Flag, Countdown, Len Brown, income inequality Labour’s baby bonus plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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Opposition Leader in the Preferred PM poll

March 31st, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

oppldr

 

Most Opposition Leaders go up in the Preferred PM polls after they get elected. Goff and Shearer did. Cunliffe has only declined since he was elected. The opposition his poll ratings seem most similar to are Jim McLay.

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Not quite right

March 27th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Richard Prebble writes in The Letter:

Maybe the Fairfax media is right that ACT will do exceptionally well. In the Herald poll ACT has gone from zero to .8%. As a percentage increase that is an infinite increase. Projected forward at that rate of increase ACT could govern alone. That statement is no sillier than the commentary the Herald has run on its poll. We are not trumpeting ACT’s spectacular rise because the margin for error in the poll is 3.5%. so ACT might already be on 3%.

That isn’t right. It is a common mistake.

The margin of error normally quoted in a poll is the maximum margin for a result of 50%. It is far less for smaller results such as 0.8%. In fact a 0.8% result for a poll of 1,000 has a margin of error of 0.6% so the 95% confidence range is 0.2% to 1.4%.

Evan at a 99.999999% confidence interval the margin of error for 0.8% is only 1.7%. There is no way at all ACT can be at 3%, just on sampling variation.

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The New Zealand Political Polling Code

March 25th, 2014 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Research Association of New Zealand has announced:

A new Code has been released today that will guide the conduct and reporting of political surveys for this year’s General Election.

Research Association New Zealand has produced the NZ Political Polling Code to ensure fair and dependable political polls.  It has been designed in conjunction with researchers, politicians and media, and is binding on members.

The working group that oversaw the code has representatives on it from Colmar Brunton, Reid Research/Baseline, Digipoll, Ipsos, UMR and Curia. It has three sections to it:

  1. Conducting of political polls by researchers (binding)
  2. Reporting of political polls by researchers (binding)
  3. Publishing of political polls by media (advisory)

Polls that comply with the code will have the logo below on them, so people can quickly see if they are code compliant.

pollcodelogo

The best practice guidelines for media reporting are:

  1. If possible, get a copy of the full poll report and do not rely on a media release. 
  2. The story should include the name of the company which conducted the poll, and the client the poll was done for, and the dates it was done. 
  3. The story should include, or make available, the sample size, sampling method, population sampled, if the sample is weighted, the maximum margin of error and the level of undecided voters. 
  4. If you think any questions may have impacted the answers to the principal voting behaviour question, mention this in the story. 
  5. Avoid reporting breakdown results from very small samples as they are unreliable. 
  6. Try to focus on statistically significant changes, which may not just be from the last poll, but over a number of polls
  7. Avoid the phrase “This party is below the margin of error” as results for low polling parties have a smaller margin of error than for higher polling parties. 
  8. It can be useful to report on what the electoral results of a poll would be, in terms of likely parliamentary blocs, as the highest polling party will not necessarily be the Government. 
  9. In your online story, include a link to the full poll results provided by the polling company, or state when and where the report and methodology will be made available. 
  10. Only use the term “poll” for scientific polls done in accordance with market research industry approved guidelines, and use “survey” for self-selecting surveys such as text or website surveys.

The full code is below:

Political Polling Code 2014

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Herald Digipoll on Brown

March 20th, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Len Brown will find it tough to be re-elected Mayor of Auckland, according to a newHerald-DigiPoll survey.

Only 22.7 per cent of the people questioned in this month’s poll said they would vote for Mr Brown in the 2016 elections; 57.7 per cent said they would not. The other 20 per cent said they did not know or did not vote in local body elections.

Brown would be an idiot if he stands again. It is very difficult to see how he could be re-elected.

The poll suggests women and the elderly were particularly upset by revelations about his extramarital affair and undeclared hotel stays.

That women probably because of what they saw as a power imbalance, with the mistress being a much younger girl who was a Mayoral appointee.

However, Mr Brown can take some comfort from the survey, which found 51.6 per cent of respondents believed he could still be an effective advocate of Auckland’s interests for the remainder of this three-year term.

When asked if the mayor should have resigned last year after revelations of his misbehaviour, 50.2 per cent said yes and 37.7 per cent said no. A further 12.1 per cent did not know.

This is a reversal of the result of a Herald-DigiPoll survey taken a few days after the affair became public last October.

At the time, 51 per cent of Aucklanders said he should stay and 39.5 per cent said he should resign.

The details in the report about all the hotel stays, is probably why the mood has changed.

Lawyer and feminist commentator Catriona MacLennan said the poll result reflected that women do not believe that Mr Brown’s affair was a private matter and could see he used his powerful position to obtain sex from a young woman.

“Many New Zealand women have encountered this behaviour in their own working lives.

“I and other women wish there was greater condemnation and consequences for such behaviour so that it becomes less prevalent in future,” Ms MacLennan said.

While the affair was consensual, the fact Bevan was a Mayoral appointee and he helped get her a job while trying to start a relationship with her, means it was not a private matter.

The poll of 248 Auckland voters was taken between March 6 and March 16. Of those, only 31.3 per cent voted for Mr Brown last year.

248 is a very small sample size.  That’s a 6.2% margin of error. The breakdowns by gender and age are even bigger. The gender data would have a 8.8% margin of error and the age one could be as high as a 12.4% margin of error. So I wouldn’t put too much faith in them.

Also the fact that only 31% of the sample say they voted for Brown could be significant, as more than that actually did vote for him. However we don’t know if that 31% is of all Aucklanders or of Aucklanders who actually voted. Also asking people who they voted for last time doesn’t always get reliable data as people often claim they didn’t vote for someone who has since disgraced themselves, even if they did.

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For those who missed it

March 18th, 2014 at 9:54 pm by David Farrar

Have just come off the Milford Track and looks like I missed a pretty significant Herald Digipoll:

Labour’s support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.

Polling below Shearer who was rolled because he was polling so low.

The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent. That is his best rating since the election but not as high as he reached in his first term when he often rated more than 70 against Phil Goff.

The increases in support for National and the Greens since December put them at their highest ratings since the 2011 election.

Crashing below 30 per cent will be a bitter blow for Labour six months before the election. No party in the six elections held under MMP has been able to lead a government without polling in the high 30s or in the 40s.

Didn’t David Cunliffe claim Labour under his leadership would poll higher than National, not 22% behind them?

Labour’s only hopes seem to be Winston Peters and Kim Dotcom/Mana.

Of interest in the poll is that National is polling at just under 51% with both men and women. It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.

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Mr Cunliffe the poll trend doesn’t lie

March 18th, 2014 at 3:33 pm by Jadis

*Jadis post as DPF collecting info for a travel blog piece.

Audrey Young has a fascinating opinion piece today that calls out David Cunliffe’s spin on today’s demoralising Herald-Digipoll for Labour – that precarious drop into the 20s.

It was disappointing to hear David Cunliffe suggesting today’s Herald DigiPoll survey putting Labour at 29.5 per cent is off the mark.

On the one hand he said he accepted that Labour’s polling has suffered from him using a trust for donations to his leadership campaign.

The next thing he is touting his party’s own internal polling which apparently puts Labour at 34 per cent.

The fact is that if Labour’s own polling is 34 per cent, it is at odds not just with DigiPoll, but with two other recent polls: Roy Morgan on March 6 which had Labour at 30.5 per cent and the Ipsos Fairfax poll a month ago which had Labour at 31.8 per cent.

The DigiPoll result of 29.5 is not much lower in reality but falling into the 20s from 30 is like falling into a canyon and is devastating for any party with designs on Government.

I am wondering if Cunliffe, his closest advisors and others have only been presenting some of the truth of Labour’s predicament to caucus.  You see that ’34 per cent’ that Cunliffe talks about is entirely possible if we add in the ‘prompted’ voters.  A prompted result is where a voter who says they are undecided is asked who they are most likely to vote for.

Today’s report on the Herald-Digipoll result very clearly states that the 29.5 per cent result is of “decided voters only”.  The decideds are what matter at this point of the cycle and Cunliffe knows that.  If I were in his caucus I’d be asking to see the decided or unprompted numbers.

If I was in Labour’s caucus I’d also be asking why Labour is becoming less attractive to women and Aucklanders.  Two groups that are pivotal to the quest for the undecided vote.  If you aren’t picking up decided voters from those groups now then you are very unlikely to pick up votes from those groups closer to the election.

A 29.5% result is a big deal.  One public poll in the 20s sends the caucus and party activists into a bit of meltdown.  As Whaleoil points out electorate MPs run back to their seats, and activists only focus on MPs or candidates they think can win a seat. A 29.5% result also means that a 25% result is not that far away… and that is frightening.  A 29.5% result means that Matt ‘Game Changer’ McCarten hasn’t worked his magic (the way Bomber talked him up it sounded like we’d see a result day 2).

In all this National also has to be a bit careful.  National needs to retain women and Auckland voters and ride very high in the polls due to a lack of support partners.  National can chortle a bit and I am sure Bill English Is thinking “so much nice being this side of the result’ but National cannot get complacent.  It needs to defend its fine batting total and bowl Labour out.

Labour can get away with some low polling if the Greens also shoot up (as they have) so that the Left vote is still high or near to National’s vote.  If they can do that then it is still a close run race.  A true decimation is less likely on the Left as Labour has (and I think it will continue to) fragment into distinct parties or collections of interests.  We are seeing a re-organisation of the Left.  Yes, Labour could drop into the mid 20s but the Greens and possibly Mana will shoot back up.

The Right needs to continue to look at the total Left vote vs the National (plus two seats) scenario.  Right and Left need to run two very different strategies.

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Latest poll

March 7th, 2014 at 3:06 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curiablog.

The gap between National and Labour/Greens has increased from 6% to 7.5%, NZ First have dropped below the 5% threshold and the country heading in the right direction indicator has increased to 65%, which is a four year high.

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February polls

March 3rd, 2014 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

feb14polls

 

As one can see, February saw significant movement in the polls, as shown in the above average of the public polls.

The monthly newsletter is out today. The executive summary is:

There were four political polls in February – a One News Colmar Brunton poll, a Fairfax Ipsos poll and two Roy Morgan poll

 The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour in January, up a large 6% from January. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 55 which would see National form a Government.

Tony Abbott’s approval ratings has plunged in Australia.

In the United States President Obama’s numbers continue to slowly recover from his terrible end to 2013.

In the UK David Cameron’s ratings also drop after a poor Government response to recent floods.

 In Canada the Conservatives are static with the Liberals remaining in the lead.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood in Australia has dropped significantly in the last month, while New Zealand improves.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the NZ Flag, religion in schools, Winston Peters, the most important issues, Labour’s baby bonus, higher taxes plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

 This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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Latest poll

February 23rd, 2014 at 6:11 pm by David Farrar

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.

National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.

Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.

Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.

One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.

It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.

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A 38% probability the story is about nothing

February 21st, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Stuff has a story from Reuters which says:

Support for Scottish independence rises

I got excited. There must have been a big movement in the polls. So I read the story.

The first opinion poll since Britain’s rulers warned Scots they would lose the pound if they voted to leave the United Kingdom showed a slight increase in support for independence ahead of a referendum on the issue scheduled for September 18.

Slight? So it wasn’t 5%. Maybe 4%? I presumed it a significant amount as Reuters has done an entire story on this.

A Survation/Scottish Daily Mail poll carried out on February 17 and 18 of 1,005 people found 37.7 percent support independence, which it said could be compared to 36.9 percent recorded in a PanelBase/Sunday Times poll carried out on January 29-February 6.

First of all comparing the results of one company to the results of another, to declare a change is bad enough. But even if the results were from the same company, is an increase of 0.8% significant?

My probability calculator tells me the two results mean that there is a 61.6% chance the second poll is actually higher than the first poll To turn that around, there is a 38% chance there has been no increase at all.

Hardly worth a story.

Personally I don’t think Scotland voting for independence would be a bad thing for England. But anyway the point is that Reuters have written a story about pretty much nothing.

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The ABCs are back

February 21st, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Duncan Garner talks on Radio Live about how the ABCs are back. He cites both a current and former Labour MP who have said that there is growing discontent over how Cunliffe has started the year.

Duncan was very clear that there is no challenge to Cunliffe’s leadership looming.Both sources were explicit on this. What has happened is that the the ABCs had gone into hibernation, but now they are talking to each other again.

The strategy that seems to be emerging is more a go slow. They think Labour can’t win, so they won’t bust their backs slogging away for a leader they don’t support. They’ll just wait for the loss, and then vacate the leadership after the election.

That’s what Garner has said a current and former Labour MP have said. And it is worth noting that Garner was one of the first to expose the maneuvers that were happening against David Shearer.

Labour dropping to 30% in yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll won’t help settle things down much either. The RM poll is very volatile, so eyes will be out for other polls in the next month or so.

Pete George has a transcript of what Garner said.

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Edwards on Labour’s chances

February 19th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Tracy Watkin at Stuff reports:

Politicians may rate lower than used car salesmen in most polls, but it seems they are not all created equal.

A Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll reveals that Prime Minister John Key is by far our most liked and trusted politician, with 59.3 per cent of people liking him, and 58.7 per cent also trusting him.

Key is also well ahead of his opponents as preferred prime minister on 51.2 per cent.

Labour leader David Cunliffe appears to be more polarising, with those who like and trust him, and those who don’t, falling into roughly equal camps. His rating as preferred prime minister is just 18.2 per cent.

The bad news for Cunliffe is that only Conservative Party leader Colin Craig, Mana Party leader Hone Harawira and Internet Party leader Kim Dotcom are more disliked. Harawira and Dotcom are also the least trusted.

At least he beat out Dotcom!

Brian Edwards, veteran commentator and media trainer to former Labour leader Helen Clark and others, said for a political leader to be truly successful, they needed the public to both like and trust them – but being likeable may provide the biggest advantage.

“John Key is widely liked and I think this is a problem for anyone that wants to oppose him because that liking is the sort of liking people have for a mate or friend or someone they know.

“Key has got this easygoing pleasant demeanour, he doesn’t seem to take things all that seriously and kids around a bit, which gives him a very accessible personality. He enjoys this tremendous liking among the public, which is very difficult for his opponents to deal with.”

Even when people considered him to be dodgy on issues such as the SkyCity deal, or electorate accommodations in seats like Epsom, that was outweighed by the fact they liked him.

“With David Cunliffe he probably does not come across as such an easygoing, warm sort of character . . . he’s not hated, but I don’t think he enjoys that popular appeal John Key has.”

That was not fatal to Cunliffe’s chances of becoming prime minister, but it would make his job harder, especially with a “feel good” factor around the economy – “for some people at least”. “It’s going to be extremely difficult for Labour to win this election.

Their best chances are a Labour/Greens/Mana Government endorsed by Kim Dotcom. But you can see above the problems associated with that also!

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Opposition to higher taxes broken down

February 17th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

The recent Fairfax poll asked respondents if they support or opposed raising taxes to pay for new spending. 69% said they were opposed and 25% in favour which means the net disapproval was -44%.

I was interested in the breakdown by party vote, which Fairfax kindly supplied. The net disapproval for supporters of each party against higher taxes was:

  • National voters: -59% net disapproval
  • Labour voters: -23% net disapproval
  • Green voters -0.5% net disapproval
  • NZ First voters -55% net disapproval

No surprise National voters are against higher taxes. Pleasing to see NZ First voters just as strongly against. What was fascinating is that most Labour voters are against increasing taxes to pay for new spending. Only 36% supported that with 59% opposed. The Greens were the only party not to be strongly opposed and they were split pretty much down the middle.

Also interesting to look at the demographics of opposition to higher taxes. They include:

  • Under 30s: -38% net disapproval
  • Maori: -50% net disapproval
  • Europeans: -40% net disapproval
  • Students: -32% net disapproval
  • No qualifications: -67% net disapproval
  • Post-grads: -22% net disapproval
  • HH income under $50k: -46% net disapproval
  • HH income over $100k: -32% net disapproval

So three fascinating things here:

  1. More Maori than Europeans oppose raising taxes to pay for more spending
  2. Those with no qualifications at all are far more opposed than the small number of people with a post-graduate degree
  3. Those with household incomes below $50K more opposed than those with HH income over $100k

So if parties go into this election vowing to raise taxes to pay for more spending, they will be seriously out of touch. As we head back into surplus, I want parties to be offering tax cuts, not tax increases.

The detailed results are here, for those interested - Fairfax poll breakdown

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Fairfax poll breakdowns

February 15th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Some interesting data in the breakdown of the Fairfax poll. Now note that these can be small sample sizes with high margins of error. But still some value in them.

I’ve listed National’s support from the strongest to weakest demographics:

  • 65+ yr olds 55.5%
  • Men 53.6%
  • 45 – 64 52.6%
  • Lower NI 50.6%
  • Auckland 50.2%
  • Upper NI 49.8%
  • All 49.4%
  • South Island (rest) 49.1%
  • Canterbury 47.8%
  • Wellington 47.3%
  • 30 – 46 46.1%
  • Women 45.7%
  • 18 – 29 40.6%

The interesting thing about those breakdowns is that older voters always turn out in much greater proportions than younger voters. Also interesting how strong Auckland is for National.

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Latest poll

February 15th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Fairfax have their latest poll done last weekend.

It has National 17% ahead of Labour and 7% ahead of Labour/Greens combined. Those saying NZ is heading in the right direction are 64% compared to 36% wrong track.

Very pleasing is that 67% are opposed to raising taxes to fund new initiatives, with only 27% in favour. Parties should be offering tax cuts, as NZ heads back into surplus, not tax increases.

Labour have dropped 2% in this poll and under Cunliffe not making more of an impact than David Shearer did. This poll result comes out in the same week when one Labour MP showed his colleagues how to run an issue well, and get most of NZ onside – as Shane Jones did with Countdown. More than a few of his colleagues will be wondering if the party made the wrong choice.

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The mood in different countries

February 4th, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve just published Curia’s monthly polling newsletter (can subscribe here), and of interest is the difference in mood between countries.

Many polls ask if people think their country is generally heading in the right or the wrong direction. They difference between right and wrong is called the net direction. The current polls for the five countries we cover are:

  • United States -32%
  • United Kingdom -21%
  • Canada – 17%
  • Australia +2%
  • New Zealand +39%

Why do people think New Zealand is so much more positive than all the others?

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Some UK poll results

February 4th, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Been doing the monthly polling newsletter, and in reading the results of the UK polls, noticed some interesting questions this month. results include:

The Labour Party has announced that if it wins next year’s election it will increase the top rate of income tax to 50p for people earning more than £150,000 a year. If Labour does come to power and does increase the top rate of income tax, what do you think will happen in practice?

16% say it raise a significant amount of money and 71% say rich people will find ways to avoid paying the tax and it will raise very little extra money.

Currently people are allowed to use “reasonable” force to defend themselves and their home against a burglar or intruder. Some people have suggested that the law should be changed to allow people to use whatever force they see fit to defend themselves and their home against a burglar or intruder. Would you support or oppose changing the law to allow people to use whatever force they see fit to defend themselves and their home against a burglar or intruder?

An astonishing 75% support no limit on what force can be used to defend a home with only 17% against. And specifically on lethal force:

Do you think it is or is not acceptable for someone defending their home to use force that causes the death of a burglar or intruder?

60% support lethal force and only 26% against. Even Labour voters are 55% in favour and 30% against.

The Channel 4 news presenter Jon Snow recently said he always thought about sex upon meeting a member of the opposite sex, saying ‘Sex comes into every evaluation of a woman, there’s no doubt about it. It’s there,’

When you meet a member of the opposite sex, do you think about what they would be like to make love to?

36% say they do and 60% say they do not. But broken by gender it is 56% of men do and only 18% of women!

If a referendum were held on the UK’s membership of the European Union with the options being to remain a member or withdraw, how do you think you would vote?

52% say they would vote to leave and 34% to remain. 62% of Conservatives favour leaving, 40% of Labour and 36% of Lib Dems.

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Most women against Labour’s gender quotas

January 9th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Labour’s target of selecting candidates to ensure women make up at least half of its caucus by 2017 has been given the thumbs down in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey – and more than half of the women polled said it was too restrictive.

The survey asked respondents whether they believed Labour’s target of achieving 50 per cent by 2017 was a good idea, or too restrictive.

Overall, 54 per cent said it was too restrictive, while just 38 per cent believed it was a good idea. Among the women respondents, 52 per cent said it was too restrictive while 42 per cent believed it was a good idea.

And it’s more than a target, it is basically a quota.

A spokeswoman for Labour leader David Cunliffe said it was a matter for the party. 

Oh how brave. DC campaigned on it in the leadership primary.

Labour has so far selected only about eight candidates, all in electorates held by other parties. So far four are males and three are females – but in the three more marginal seats of Otaki, Napier and Te Tai Hauauru the candidates are all male – Robb McCann, Stuart Nash and Adrian Rurawhe respectively.

What the gender quota means is that if those three men look likely to win their seats, then three men on the party list must be demoted beneath female candidates to compensate.

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Polls December 2013

January 8th, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

pollsdec13

 

The latest polling update, for November and December 2013. National has had a good three months.

The summary of the newsletter is:

There were three polls in November and two in December.

The average of the public polls has National 13% ahead of Labour in November (was 10% in October) and also 13% in December. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 59.

Tony Abbott has the shortest honeymoon in recent history, with the Coalition already behind Labor and with a net negative approval rating in Australia.

In the United States President Obama’s approval rating is drops to an even further all-time low of 41%. The Republicans are now ahead of the Democrats on the generic House ballot as the Obamacare fiasco damages the President and his party.

In the UK Labour’ leads the Conservatives by just 5%.

In Canada the ongoing scandal in the Senate sees the Conservatives drop to 28%.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood in NZ is a net 27% higher than Australia and 69% higher than in the US. Key is the only leader with a positive approval rating (+30%).

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on cannabis, CIRS, electoral threshold, asset sales, KiwiAssure, Te Tai Tokerau, Pike River, GST, Fireworks, the speed limit, fishing, mining, land sales and drink driving plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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National up in latest poll

December 20th, 2013 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Labour’s poll support has slipped after an initial surge following David Cunliffe’s election as leader, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power if the figures were translated to an election result.

With the left and right blocs fairly evenly split, it could be a close election next year.

Neither National nor Labour would be able to form a government without the Maori Party.

Labour has fallen 2.3 points in the survey to 35.4 per cent. In the September poll, it had a surge in support and could have formed a government with just the Greens and Mana.

National has risen 3.1 points and Prime Minister John Key has somewhat recovered in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, after taking a 9.4 point dive in the last poll.

He has jumped 6.1 points to 61.9 per cent, well ahead of Mr Cunliffe on 16.5 per cent.

Not a bad place to end the year. And David Cunliffe is polling below what David Shearer was as Preferred PM.

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Bennett v Rankin

December 15th, 2013 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

Colin Espiner reports:

The Conservative Party is poised to stand its high-profile chief executive Christine Rankin against National’s Paula Bennett in Upper Harbour, setting up a potential battle of the former solo mums next election.

Conservative Party leader Colin Craig confirmed to the Sunday Star-Times that the party’s board had formally asked the controversial former boss of Work and Income New Zealand to stand in next year’s general election. …

Bennett and Rankin have similar back stories; both grew up in households without much money, had children at a young age and raised them alone on the domestic purposes benefit. Both ended up in charge of their former paymaster; Rankin as chief executive of Work and Income New Zealand and Bennett as Minister of Social Development.

It will be an interesting contest. I suspect both women will agree on a lot of stuff around welfare reforms but perhaps disagree in other areas.

Polling had indicated Rankin would do well in the proposed electorate that would wrap around the north and west of Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour. …

Independent polling by Research Solutions for the Conservatives obtained by the Star-Times shows Rankin has 24 per cent support in Upper Harbour, with 20 per cent opting for “another candidate” and a large 56 per cent undecided.

I’ve blogged on this before, but a poll which names only one candidate has little value in predicting the outcome of an election. A poll should either be totally unprompted (Which candidate or party’s candidate would you vote for) or totally prompted (Which of the following candidates would you vote for). A poll which just asks “Would you vote for Candidate A or some other candidate” has relatively little value.

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HoS Poll

December 15th, 2013 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

An HoS Key Research poll has National on 48%, Labour 40%, Greens 8% and no minor party above 1%. It depends on the exact votes each minor party actually got, but an estimate of the seats would be National 58, Labour 48, Greens 10 and if existing electorates hold Maori 3, Mana 1, UF 1 and ACT 1. So CR 60 seats, CL 59 seats and Maori Party 3 seats.

National will be happy on 48%. Labour will be delighted if they are on 40%. Worth noting that the latest Roy Morgan poll had Labour on 30.5% and Greens on 14.5% so the two polls are starkly different when it comes to how the left vote is splitting. They both show National around equal with them combined though.

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Can Labour win back Te Tai Tokerau?

November 12th, 2013 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Mana leader Hone Harawira is under pressure to hold his Tai Tai Tokerau seat with a new poll showing him running a close second to a yet-to-be-selected Labour candidate.

The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.

Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.

A Maori party candidate would get 14 per cent, the survey found.

Harawira held the seat in 2011 with a 1165 majority over Labour’s Kelvin Davis.

Labour have said they want to win all seven Maori seats. Flavell looks very safe in Waiariki. I thought Harawira would be streaks ahead in Te Tai Tokerau, but it seems not.

There was strong backing for Harawira’s performance as the local MP with 14 per cent rating it “fantastic”, 39 per cent above average and 31 per cent average.

Only 12 per cent rated it either below average or poor. 

That suggests the locals like him as their local MP. The question is will they vote to keep him.

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