Labour in Roy Morgan polls

January 26th, 2016 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

RM Labour

The 1st poll of 2016 saw Labour at 27.5%. This is after we hear what a great year Labour had last year from the media.

The graph above shows Labour in the Roy Morgan poll since they started in 2005.

It is no surprise that they are lower than when they were in Government but they are lower than most of the time they have been in opposition.

In January 2010 they were at 32% and in January 2013 they were at 31.5%. These are at the same stage of the electoral cycle.

So they are polling 4% to 5% worse than they were at the same stage as their 1st and 2nd terms in opposition.

And how were National one year into their third term in opposition?

They were polling 42.5%.

December public polls

January 12th, 2016 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

decpolls

Just done my monthly polling newsletter.

This graph of the last three years is quite telling. National is polling around 5% higher than three years ago and Labour around 5% lower.

A trick question poll

December 26th, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The Guardian reports:

More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.

In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.

Public Policy Polling also polled Democratic primary voters: only 19% of them said they would support bombing Agrabah, while 36% said they would oppose it.

People are getting excited about this, but it doesn’t really say a lot except that people don’t like to admit they don’t know where a place is.

I suspect most respondents just thought Agrabah is a city in Syria. And the question was asked as a direct support/oppose. The majority of Republicans actually said they were not sure, which is what everyone should say.  Also of note is 19% of Democrats said they support bombing it.

Thomas Lumley at Stats Chat damns the poll question:

I’m pretty sure that less than 30% even of Republican voters really support bombing a fictional country. In fact, I’d guess it’s probably less than 5%. But think about how the question was asked.  You’re a stereotypical Republican voter dragged away from quiet dinner with your stereotypical spouse and 2.3 stereotypical kids by this nice, earnest person on the phone who wants your opinion about important national issues.  You know there’s been argument about whether to bomb this place in the Middle East. You can’t remember if the name matches, but obviously if they’re asking a serious question that must be the place they mean. And it seemed like a good idea when it was explained on the news. Even the British are doing it. So you say “Support”.

The 30% (or 19%) doesn’t mean Republicans (or Democrats) want to bomb Aladdin. It doesn’t even mean they want to bomb arbitrary places they’ve never heard of. It means they were asked a question carefully phrased to sound as if it was about a genuine geopolitical controversy and they answered it that way.

When Ali G does this sort of thing to political figures, it’s comedy. When Borat does it to unsuspecting Americans it’s a bit dubious. When it’s mixed in with serious opinion polling, it risks further damaging what’s already a very limited channel for gauging popular opinion.

I agree.

YouGov on why their UK polls were wrong

December 21st, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

YouGov have published why they think their polls were out in the UK election. Their conclusions:

The younger age range within the samples over-represent those who are more engaged in politics and are therefore more likely to vote. As younger people, they disproportionately supported Labour, so having too many young voters in our likely voter sample skewed the overall result towards Labour. We believe we had the party voting proportions for this age group correct but that fewer of them actually voted than our sample suggested. This can be corrected in the future in two ways: a) interviewing the correct proportion of people who are less interested in politics, and b) weighting the sample to the expected turnout for different demographic groups. The problem with both of these is that, unlike in the US where detailed exit poll data is publicly available, in the UK no detailed information is available by which we can know the correct target proportions for each age group. However, we can make better estimates of them.

Youth turnout is low almost everywhere. And if you only get to poll the politically motivated youth, then you will over-estimate their likely turnout.

In NZ the Electoral Commission has released turnout by age, so pollsters should be able to take this into account when weighting.

The oldest demographic group, the over-seventies, were under-represented in our samples. They voted disproportionately for the Conservatives, and having too few of them in our samples skewed it slightly against the Conservatives. This can be corrected in the future in two ways: a) interviewing the correct number of over-seventies, and b) weighting the over-seventies in our samples to the correct target weights.

Elderly people vote far more than younger voters.

In NZ only 62% of under 30s enrolled, voted. For over 65s it is over 85%.

One cannot discount misreporting (“shy Tories”), but we can find no direct evidence for it. In this election, polling showed dissonance between the outcome which people (in aggregate) said they wanted, and their underlying party preference. There was a strong overall preference for a Cameron-led government over an SNP-influenced government led by Labour leader Ed Miliband, although stated voting preferences would not have delivered that. It is possible that this led to some respondent misreporting, if people wanted to express their party preference and not their actual tactical vote, but it is impossible to establish this objectively as we can never know how individual respondents really voted.

This is that basically people changed their mind at the last minute as some Labour voters didn’t want Labour propped up by the SNP so chose Conservative as the lesser evil. Same in NZ where some left voters hated the idea of a Labour Government propped up by Kim Dotcom, so voted National.

Final poll for year has National at 51%

December 15th, 2015 at 6:18 am by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the Herald DigiPoll which should be the final poll of 2015.

Their seat projection has National with 62 seats, enough to govern alone, and Labour/Greens on 47 seats.

The interesting comparison I like to make is with three years ago, as you are comparing similar points in the electoral cycle.

In the average of all polls, the change from December 2012 to December 2015 is:

  • National up 4.3%
  • Labour down 4.2%
  • Greens down 0.1%
  • NZ First up 1.5%

Final public poll for the year

December 11th, 2015 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan have released what is probably the final public poll for the year.

The seat projections on their poll are:

Centre-Left

  • Labour 34
  • Greens 16
  • Mana 0
  • CL 50

Centre

  • NZ First 7
  • Maori 2
  • C 9

Centre-Right

  • National 59
  • ACT 1
  • United Future 1
  • CR 61

Not bad for the start of the eight year of office.

Public Polls October 2015

November 11th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

pollsoct15

The monthly newsletter is out:

There were two political voting polls in October – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in October, up 5% from September. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 50 which would see a National-led Government.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States a good month for Clinton and Carson. Biden’s withdrawal has seen Clinton gain 12% in primary polling and Ben Carson has gained 7% to be a dominant 2nd to Trump.

In the UK Jeremy Corbyn has a net approval rating of -19% after two months in the job.

In Australia Bill Shorten appears to be in serious trouble. Malcolm Turnbull has a +35% net approval rating while Bill Shorten is on -32%. Turnbull leads Shorten as Preferred PM by 63% to 17%.

In Canada no polls since the election. The polls were quite accurate but the seat projections were not.

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The NZ poll comparison is:

  9 years ago 3 years ago 1 year ago 3 months ago Last month This month
             
National 42% 45% 44% 46% 46% 49%
Labour 40% 32% 23% 32% 32% 30%
Greens 7% 12% 18% 13% 12% 12%
NZ First 3% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8%
Nat over Labour +3% +13% +21% +14% +14% +19%
Nat over Lab/Gre -5% +1% +4% +2% +2% +7%
             
Right Direction   49% 62% 51% 58% 53%
Wrong Direction   39% 25% 33% 30% 31%
Net Direction   +10% +37% +18% +28% +22%
             
Preferred PM            
National Leader 17% 42% 43% 40% 40% 40%
Labour Leader 33% 11% 12% 8% 10% 8%
NZ First Leader 4% 6% 5% 7% 6% 8%

Little lowest polling opposition leader one year in

October 20th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

I’be blogged the latest One News poll at Curia.

Andrew Little has been Opposition Leader for around a year now. So how is he polling as Preferred PM compared to other opposition leaders one year in? Here’s the list since MMP in 1996.

  1. John Key 33%
  2. Don Brash 20%
  3. Jenny Shipley 16%
  4. David Shearer 11%
  5. Bill English 10%
  6. David Cunliffe 10%
  7. Phil Goff 9%
  8. Andrew Little 8%

Latest poll

October 16th, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curia. As usual, quite variable.

September Public Polls

October 6th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

seppolls

Just published the monthly polling newsletter. The executive summary is:

There were three political voting polls in September – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a 3 News Reid Research.

 The average of the public polls has National 14% ahead of Labour in September, down 8% from August back to what it was in July. The current seat projection is centre-right 58 seats, centre-left 54 which would see NZ First holding the balance of power.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States Hillary Clinton’s favourability continues to drop, reaching -13%. Donald Trump also has falling favourability hitting -20%. Both Clinton and Trump remains the leaders in the polls for their nominations though.

In the UK Jeremy Corbyn faces considerable challenges with 32% of Labour voters saying they think David Cameron would be a better Prime Minister than Corbyn. Personal beliefs of Corbyn such as withdrawing from NATO have only 9% support. Also in a significant change there is now a plurality in favour of leaving the EU, in the wake of the refugee crisis.

In Australia Malcolm Turnbull has a honeymoon. The Coalition has gained a net 10% on the two party preferred vote. Turnbull has a net approval rating of +34% compared to his predecessor Abbott who had -33% and Opposition Leader Shorten on -25%.

In Canada a fairy dramatic change with the campaign underway, seeing the Conservatives gain 5% and retake the lead. However projections still have them well off getting a majority.

We also carry details of polls on the NZ Flag, private prisons, Labour Deputy Leadership, foreign investment, the TPP plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

Public Polls August 2015

September 4th, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

pollsaug15

Curia’s monthly newsletter is out. The summary is:

There were two political voting polls in August – a Roy Morgan and a NZ Herald DigiPoll

 The average of the public polls has National 22% ahead of Labour in August, up 8% from July. The current seat projection is centre-right 64 seats, centre-left 48 which would see National able to govern alone.

A new section shows the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States Donald Trump is polling at almost three times the level of the next highest polling contender in the Republican field. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s net favourability rating has dropped 7% in one month.

In the UK the refugee crisis in Europe appears to be impacting support for the UK staying within the EU. Net support for remaining has dropped from +20% to +7%. Jeremy Corbyn leads in the polls to become the next UK Leader.

In Australia Abbott’s approval ratings have plummeted this month and the Liberals and Labor are tied in polls for the Canning by-election despite the Liberals willing it by 24% in 2013.

In Canada the trial of suspended Senator Mike Duffy hurts Stephen Harper, as testimony about an alleged bribe from Harper’s former chief of staff is aired. The NDP continue to lead in the polls.

We also carry details of polls on the NZ Flag, future party leaders, private prisons, foreign house buyers, TPP plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

The new section is also below:

 

9 years ago 3 years ago 1 year ago 3 months ago Last month This month
National 43% 44% 49% 50% 46% 51%
Labour 41% 32% 26% 29% 32% 29%
Greens 6% 14% 13% 11% 13% 10%
NZ First 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8%
Nat over Labour +2% +12% +23% +21% +14% +22%
Nat over Lab/Gre -4% -2% +10% +10% +2% +12%
Right Direction 50% 64% 63% 51% 54%
Wrong Direction 35% 25% 27% 33% 34%
Net Direction +15% +39% +36% +18% +20%
Preferred PM
National Leader 15% 45% 47% 44% 40% 40%
Labour Leader 37% 13% 12% 9% 8% 8%
NZ First Leader 4% 4% 5% 9% 7% 7%

Party Vote

National’s party vote is around the same as three months ago and a year ago. It is significantly higher than three years ago and 10% higher than Labour were at in Government nine years ago.

Labour’s party vote is up from a year ago and the same as three months ago. It is lower though than where they were at three years ago and 12% lower than where National were at in Opposition nine years ago.

The Green’s party vote is lower than it was a year ago and three years ago.

NZ First party vote is much the same as three months ago, but higher than a year ago and three years ago.

Country Direction

The net direction is greatly lower than three months ago and a year ago, but still positive. It is higher than the same time three years ago.

Preferred PM

Key’s Preferred PM rating is 3% higher than Helen Clark’s of nine years ago. It is lower though than where he was a year ago and three years ago.

Little’s Preferred PM rating of 8% is much the same as three months ago. It is however lower than David Cunliffe a year ago, and David Shearer 3 years ago. Comparing to National in Opposition nine years ago, it is around half the level Don Brash was at.

Peters’ Preferred PM rating is higher than a year ago, and three years ago.

Latest poll

August 26th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

This morning’s Herald Digipoll is blogged at Curia.

The Herald story has demographic breakdowns of party support. These have a higher margin of error so caution is needed. However the gaps are so huge in some of them, it is worth commenting on.

The gap between National and Labour is:

  • 30% among men
  • 27% in Auckland
  • 35% among over 65s

When you can only get the support of one in four men, one in four Aucklanders and one in four retired NZers, you won’t be in Government.

Latest poll

August 21st, 2015 at 7:06 am by David Farrar

The latest Roy Morgan came out yesterday. I’ve blogged it at Curia.

As usual with Roy Morgan, it bounces around a lot, but shows National up 7.5% to 50.5%, Labour down 5% to 27% and Greens down 2% to 11%.

Public Polls July 2015

August 7th, 2015 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

pollsjul15

The summary of Curia’s monthly newsletter is:

There were three political voting polls in July – a Roy Morgan, One News Colmar Brunton and 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 14% ahead of Labour in July, down 10% from June. The current seat projection is centre-right 57 seats, centre-left 54 which would see NZ First hold the balance of power.

In the United States Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican field.

In the UK Jeremy Corbyn has gone from being a 100 to 1 outside to the favourite with the bookmakers to become the next UK Labour Party Leader.

In Australia Shorten’s approval ratings continue to decline after his testimony at the Royal Commission into union corruption.

In Canada they remain on track to elect their first ever NDP Government. The Liberals continue to lose support to the NDP.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls on foreign house buyers, genetic modification, refugees, organ donation, euthanasia, intelligence agencies plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself

 

Latest poll

July 27th, 2015 at 7:49 am by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the 3 News Reid Research poll broadcast last night.

Like the One News Colmar Brunton poll the previous week, it shows no bounce for Labour from its targeting of people with Chinese surnames.

What it does show is that Andrew Little has fallen below Winston Peters as Preferred Prime Minister.

This is a feat never achieved by Phil Goff, David Shearer or David Cunliffe.

The last time an Opposition Leader failed to poll in the top two as Preferred Prime Minister was in October 2003 – 12 years ago. Later that month he was rolled in a coup.

So the results of Labour’s concede Northland to Winston strategy has been to have their leader fall into third place behind Winston as Preferred PM.

And the results of their decision to highlight home buyers with Chinese surnames has been to achieve nothing in the polls, but alienate many Chinese New Zealanders.

No bounce for Labour

July 20th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll.

A 1% lift for Labour is statistically insignificant, so there week of headlines on blaming the Chinese for Auckland house prices has come to nought.

Some journalists were saying this could be Labour’s Orewa. The week after Don Brash’s Orewa speech saw National go up 17% in the polls, not 1%.

Here’s a comparison of the One News poll with previous ones:

Jul-15 3 mths 3 years 9 years
National 47% 49% 48% 45%
Labour 32% 31% 32% 43%
PM 40% 42% 45% 39%
Opp Ldr 8% 11% 13% 14%

Both National and Labour are polling at much the same level as both 3 months ago and 3 years ago. If you go back to nine years ago (when Labour were in their third term), the opposition party was 2% ahead of the Government, not 15% below.

As for Preferred PM, Ket is at much the same level Clark was at nine years ago. But Little is polling worse than David Shearer three years ago and Don Brash nine years ago.

 

June public polls

July 8th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

From Curia’s monthly newsletter:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 86, June 2015

There was one political voting poll in June – a Roy Morgan.

The average of the public polls has National 24% ahead of Labour in June, up 3% from May. The current seat projection is centre-right 63 seats, centre-left 48 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Donald Trump has shot to 2nd place in the Republican field. Clinton’s approval rating continues to decline, and Obama’s foreign policy approval is also declining.

In the UK David Cameron has positive approval at the start of his second term. Current views on the EU are 51% want the UK to remain, 31% leave and 17% undecided.

In Australia a large fall in approval ratings for Bill Shorten, so he now lags behind Tony Abbott.

In Canada with less than four months to go until the federal election, the NDP have taken a dramatic lead in the polls, and could end up forming the government for the first time since they formed in 1961.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls on trust in occupations plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

 

The poll average for the last three years is below.

junepolls

Bit of a trend for Labour.

Latest poll

June 24th, 2015 at 10:46 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged the latest poll at Curia.

On it National would have 62 seats, Labour 32, Greens 16 and NZ First 8.

May public polls

June 3rd, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

maypolls

The latest monthly polling newsletter is out. The high level summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 85, May 2015

There were three political voting polls in May – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 21% ahead of Labour in May, up 2% from April. The current seat projection is centre-right 63 seats, centre-left 49 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Clinton’s favourability goes negative for the first time, on the back of scrutiny of donations to the Clinton Foundation. Walker takes the lead from Bush in the Republican race.

In the UK the Conservatives have increased 3% since the election. Current views on the EU are 45% want the UK to remain, 38% leave and 18% undecided

In Australia the country direction has improved significantly in May, after the recent budget. Abbott’s approval also improving.

In Canada following their win in Alberta, the NDP are increasing support throughout the country.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the NZ Head of State, 2015 Budget, John Key’s ponytail pulling and the recent tax changes on property plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

Latest poll

June 3rd, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The 3 News Reid Research poll released last night is now on Curia.

The weighted average of the recent polls has the CR on 62 seats, CL on 49 seats and 10 seats with centre parties.

Latest poll

June 2nd, 2015 at 12:08 pm by David Farrar

Details of the latest (One News Colmar Brunton) poll are on Curia’s new website.

There is little change in the party vote despite both pony tails and Budgets.

However Andrew Little is now tied (dropping to 9%) with Winston Peters as Preferred PM.

The last time the Opposition Leader dropped behind (or tied) a third party leader as Preferred PM was Bill English in 2003.

Latest poll

May 26th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The latest poll, a Roy Morgan, is on Curiablog.

It was taken pre-Budget and shows Labour on 25.5%, under half the level of National.

curiappa

Lord Ashcroft analyses the UK election result

May 23rd, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Two interesting blog posts of Lord Ashcroft – the results of his post-election poll and a speech he gave to a post-election conference.

Some data from the poll:

  • Conservatives lost among under 55s, and won massively with over 65s. Labour got just 21% of over 65s.
  • Conservatives won in socio-economic classes AB and C1, tied in C2 and lost only in DE.
  • The most important factors in how people voted were trust of motives and values 75%, preferred promises 62%, the leader 45%
  • Most important issues were the NHS 55%, economic growth 51%, immigration 41%, cutting deficit 30%, cost of living 25%, welfare reform 20%, Europe 18%, schools 13%, environment 9%, crime 6%
  • 46% say austerity needs to continue, 30% say austerity was needed but no longer and 24% say austerity was never needed
  • Even 60% of Labour voters say austerity and spending cuts were needed

 

Why the UK polls were wrong

May 9th, 2015 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

ukpolls

As you can see the UK pre-election polls were wrong. Quite massively wrong. The Conservatives beat Labour by 6% and have won a clear majority. Only one poll of of the several dozen in the last few weeks got close to this. The poll were near unanimous that the Conservatives and Labour would be tied in the vote, and Conservatives would get only a few more seats. Instead they got 98 more.

So why were the polls do wrong? Not one poll, but almost all of them. There three broad plausible explanations – which are not mutually exclusive.

1 – People lie to the pollsters

Someone tweeted that the British have shown the one thing they’re really good at is lying to their pollsters.  A more polite version of this is what the Guardian calls Shy Tories. People don’t like to admit they are voting for a party. One has seen this in the US when one candidate is African-American. Also in NZ to a degree where I suspect one of the reasons NZ First often exceeds the polls, is people don’t like to admit they are voting for them.

But I think it is unlikely this explains most or even much of what happened.

2 – People change their mind

Either the undecideds decide to vote a certain way disproportional to the already decideds, or some decideds change their mind. One reason for this is tactical voting. This is why ACT keep winning Epsom despite poll after poll showing them behind. People only get tactical at the last minute.

Major newspapers published guides as to how to tactically vote to maximise the outcome for your preferred PM. This could have had quite an impact.

However while I think this may have been some of it, I don’t think it was the major factor. Even in seats where there was no ability to vote tactically (no major third party), you saw the Conservatives pick up seats off Labour.

3 – Turnout was different

Turnout was higher than expected in many areas. If one side does better at turning out their supporters, this can have a big impact.

In NZ the impact of Dotcom was to so enrage Government supporters, they advance voted in record numbers – determined to keep him out.

If you look at the motivations to vote in the UK for Conservative and Labour voters, they were quite different. Conservative voters had a pretty strong motivation to vote to keep Ed Miliband out, and to stop a party which wants to dissolve the United Kingdom, from holding the balance of power. A Mliband Government propped up by the SNP was very scary to many.

However if you are a Labour supporter, your best outcome was a Labour minority government that could only govern with the SNP’s votes. This is hardly motivating stuff.

So I suspect (we’ll know more as we get more data) that the major difference was turnout.

 

Of some interest is that in several elections now, it has been the more right wing parties that have exceeded their polls. In Israel Likud did massively better than the polls, as did the Conservatives in the UK. In the 2014 US mid-terms the Republicans did far better in the Senate than projected. And even in NZ National did better than the polls (but within margin of error). I’m not saying this is significant – just that it could be. Or it could just be chance. In one Victorian state election the Liberal Party did far far worse than the polls, and in NZ in 2011 National did a bit worse than the polls. But

April 2015 public polls

May 5th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

apr15polls

The parties are very close to where they were three years ago with Labour and Greens down slightly and NZ First up.

The executive summary of the newsletter is:

There were three political voting polls in April – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a NZ Herald DigiPoll.

 The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in April, up 3% from March. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 50 which would see a National-led Government.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating for foreign policy increases on the back of the draft Iran deal.  The country direction remains strongly negative. Jeb Bush remains just ahead of Scott Walker in support for the Republican nomination.

In the UK the Conservatives look likely to win more seats than Labour on 7 May but Labour appears to be in a better position to form Government as the SNP are on track to win almost every seat in Scotland, and have said they will not allow the Conservatives to govern.

In Australia the Coalition regain a bit of support, but still trail Labor. Abbott’s approval ratings have improved significantly but remain negative – as do Bill Shorten’s.

In Canada the Conservatives are better placed than a year ago to retain power, as they enter the final six months before the October 19 election.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Ports of Auckland, the NZ Flag, the surplus, Iraq and euthanasia plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail newsletter@curia.co.nz with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to this page to subscribe yourself.