Public Polls January 2015

February 9th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar


The average of the public polls since 2012.

The monthly newsletter was published yesterday. The summary is:

There were two political polls in January – a Roy Morgan and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, up 3% from December. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 46 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition is 8% behind Labour as Abbott battles to remain Leader and Prime Minister.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating has improved but is still negative. Clinton remains the dominant Democratic frontrunner while the withdrawal of Mitt Romney sees no front runner for the Republicans. 

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 1%.For the first time in some years they are no longer forecast to get a majority.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, but are projected to win slightly fewer seats.

The normal three tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government approval and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on summer holiday dates and leadership attributes plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please e-mail with your name, organization (if applicable) and e-mail address or go to to subscribe yourself.


Correspondence and feedback is also welcome to the same address.




Getting too excited

February 4th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Barry Soper at NewstalkZB reports:

And they’re also luxuriating in the new found popularity of their leader in the latest opinion poll which sees Andrew Little the most popular leader since Helen Clark. Given the other three incumbents since her, it’s hardly reason for popping the champagne corks just yet.

Andrew Little is not the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark. We’ve had several days of claims such as this, based on an incredibly modest poll result.

On one particular indicator (capable leader) he got a 54% rating. Yes that is 1% above Phil Goff’s initial rating. But being seen as capable is far from being proclaimed popular.

On the Preferred PM indicator which is the indicator of popularity, Little got 9.8%. Cunliffe was on 12.3%. Shearer made 12.6%.  Goff made 12.4%.   He is not the most popular. He is yet to poll higher than any of them.

Now don’t get me wrong. I think Little has had a solid start and is a capable leader. However proclaiming him as the most popular Labour leader since Helen Clark is just daft. He isn’t (yet anyway). The public at best have an open mind on him.

His capable leader rating is basically the same as Goff started on. Goff them made a series of bad calls, and his ratings plummeted. Little’s challenge is to not do the same.

Tags: ,

First TV poll

February 2nd, 2015 at 7:35 am by David Farrar

3 News had a poll last night. Details are at Curiablog.  National and Labour up and Greens and Conservatives down. On the poll National could govern alone.

National’s lead over Labour is 21%. By comparison in the same poll in 2006 (Labour’s third term), their lead over National was just 6%.


1st poll of 2015

January 23rd, 2015 at 8:03 pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan have released the first poll of 2015. National is up 6% to 52% – exactly double Labour and 15% ahead of Labour/Greens combined.

Of importance is that 67% of respondents said NZ is heading in the right direction and only 23% in the wrong direction.

This is an incredibly strong position to be in at the start of one’s third term.

If we look at the first poll of 2006, in Labour’s third term, Labour were actually 2% behind National.

Despite the positive publicity in the media for Little, he has yet to make a difference to Labour’s polls.


How the pollsters did

September 22nd, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar


These tables are from Grumpollie. The Herald DigiPoll was closest for National, One News Colmar Brunton for Labour, Herald Digipoll for Greens and NZ First.



On the provisional results, the Herald DigiPoll was exceedingly accurate. A wee way back were One News Colmar Brunton, Roy Morgan and Fairfax Ipsos. 3 News Reid Research was noticeably further out.

However overall not too bad a result overall for the public pollsters. Grumpollie notes:

  1. Well done DigiPoll.
  2. Looking at these results, I see no evidence of the ‘National bias’ that some people talk about.
  3. If there is any poll bias, it appears to be toward the Green Party.
  4. The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring.

Hopefully we’ll hear less now of how the landline polls over estimate National!

Tags: ,

Projected MPs for 2014 Parliament

September 19th, 2014 at 10:19 am by David Farrar

This is a projection of who may be in Parliament based on the average of the polls, and using the seat projections of iPredict (I don’t actually agree with all of them, but they are the only complete source of public predictions so I use them).

Those in bold are not current MPs.

National – 58 seats, 40 electorates, 18 list

  1. Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye
  2. Bay of Plenty – Todd Muller
  3. Botany – Jami-Lee Ross
  4. Clutha-Southland – Todd Barclay
  5. Coromandel – Scott Simpson
  6. East Coast – Anne Tolley
  7. East Coast Bays – Murray McCully
  8. Hamilton East – David Bennett
  9. Hamilton West – Tim Macindoe
  10. Helensville – John Key
  11. Hunua – Andrey Bayly
  12. Ilam – Gerry Brownlee
  13. Invercargill – Sarah Dowie
  14. Kaikoura – Stuart Smith
  15. Maungakiekie – Pesata Sam Lotu-Iiga
  16. Nelson – Nick Smith
  17. New Plymouth – Jonathan Young
  18. Northcote – Jonathan Coleman
  19. Northland – Mike Sabin
  20. North Shore – Maggie Barry
  21. Otaki – Nathan Guy
  22. Pakuranga – Maurice Williamson
  23. Papakua – Judith Collins
  24. Rangitata – Jo Goodhew
  25. Rangitikei – Ian McKelvie
  26. Rodney – Mark Mitchell
  27. Rotorua – Todd McClay
  28. Selwyn – Amy Adams
  29. Tamaki – Simon O’Connor
  30. Taranaki-King Country – Barbara Kuriger
  31. Taupo – Louise Upston
  32. Tauranga – Simon Bridges
  33. Tukituki – Craig Foss
  34. Upper Harbour – Paula Bennett
  35. Waikato – Lindsay Tisch
  36. Waimakariri – Matthew Doocey
  37. Wairarapa – Alastair Scott
  38. Waitaki – Jacqui Dean
  39. Whangarei – Shane Reti
  40. Whanganui – Chester Borrows
  41. List 1 – Bill English
  42. List 2 – David Carter
  43. List 3 – Steven Joyce
  44. List 4 – Hekia Parata
  45. List 5 – Chris Finlayson
  46. List 6 – Tim Groser
  47. List 7 – Michael Woodhouse
  48. List 8 – Nicky Wagner
  49. List 9 – Paul Goldsmith
  50. List 10 – Melissa Lee
  51. List 11 – Kanwal Bakshi
  52. List 12 – Jian Yang
  53. List 13 – Alfred Ngaro
  54. List 14 – Brett Hudson
  55. List 15 – Paul Foster-Bell
  56. List 16 – Jo Hayes
  57. List 17 – Parmjeet Parmar
  58. List 18 – Chris Bishop

Labour – 32 seats, 27 electorates, 5 list

  1. Christchurch Central – Tony Milne
  2. Christchurch East – Poto Williams
  3. Dunedin North – David Clark
  4. Dunedin South – Clare Curran
  5. Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta
  6. Hutt South – Trevor Mallard
  7. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Meka Whaitiri
  8. Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni
  9. Mana – Kris Faafoi
  10. Mangere – Su’a William Sio
  11. Manukau East – Jenny Salesa
  12. Manurewa – Louisa Wall
  13. Mt Albert – David Shearer
  14. Mt Roskill – Phil Goff
  15. Napier – Stuart Nash
  16. New Lynn – David Cunliffe
  17. Palmerston North – Iain Lees-Galloway
  18. Port Hills – Ruth Dyson
  19. Rimutaka – Chris Hipkins
  20. Rongotai – Annette King
  21. Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare
  22. Te Atatu – Phil Twyford
  23. Te Tai Hauauru – Adrian Rurawhe
  24. Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene
  25. West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor
  26. Wellington Central – Grant Robertson
  27. Wigram – Megan Woods
  28. List 1 – David Parker
  29. List 2 – Jacinda Ardern
  30. List 3 – Clayton Cosgrove
  31. List 4 – Sue Moroney
  32. List 5 – Andrew Little

Greens – 16 seats, 16 list

  1. List 1 – Metiria Turei
  2. List 2 – Russel Norman
  3. List 3 – Kevin Hague
  4. List 4 – Eugenie Sage
  5. List 5 – Gareth Hughes
  6. List 6 – Catherine Delahunty
  7. List 7 – Kennedy Graham
  8. List 8 – Julie Anne Genter
  9. List 9 – Mojo Mathers
  10. List 10 – Jan Logie
  11. List 11 – David Clendon
  12. List 12 – James Shaw
  13. List 13 – Denise Roche
  14. List 14 – Steffan Browning
  15. List 15 – Marama Davidson
  16. List 16 – Barry Coates

NZ First – 10 seats, 10 list

  1. List 1 – Winston Peters
  2. List 2 – Tracey Martin
  3. List 3 – Richard Prosser
  4. List 4 – Fletcher Tabuteau
  5. List 5 – Barbara Stewart
  6. List 6 – Clayton Mitchell
  7. List 7 – Denis O’Rourke
  8. List 8 – Pita Paraone
  9. List 9 – Ron Mark
  10. List 10 – Darroch Ball

Internet Mana – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

  1. Te Tai Tokerau – Hone Harawira
  2. List 1 – Laila Harre

Maori Party – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

  1. Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell
  2. List 1 – Marama Fox

ACT – 1 seat, 1 electorate

  1. Epsom – David Seymour

United Future – 1 seat, 1 electorate

  1. Ohariu – Peter Dunne
Tags: , ,

The 2014 election polls

September 19th, 2014 at 9:30 am by David Farrar



This table shows the last five polls from the five public pollsters. The average is shown, as is the weighted average (which takes into account recency and size).

National is projected to get between 44.5% and 48.2%, which is a a range within the margin of error. Note though these polls only partially include polling since the “Moment of Truth” on Monday night.

Labour is projected to get between 24.0% and 26.1%.

Greens are projected to get between 11.0% and 14.4%.

NZ First are projected to get between 6.6% and 8.4%.

Conservatives are projected to get between 3.3% and 4.9%

Internet Mana are projected to get between 0.9% and 2.0%



These seat projections take the party vote figures from each poll, but a standard assumption for electorate seats of the status quo.

National is projected to get between 56 and 61 seats.

Labour is projected to get between 30 and 33 seats.

Greens are projected to get between 14 and 18 seats.

NZ First are projected to get between 8 and 11 seats.

Internet Mana are projected to get between 1 and 3 seats.

In terms of coalitions, the findings are:

  • No polls predict National can govern alone
  • Two out of five say National could form a CR Government with ACT and United Future (if they win their electorate seats)
  • Four out of five say National could form a CR Government with ACT, United Future and Maori Party, if the Maori Party hold their seats and decide to go with National
  • No polls show that Labour, Greens and NZ First could form a Government
  • One poll says that Labour, Greens, NZ First and Internet Mana could form a Government
  • The average of the polls predicts National could govern either with NZ First alone or with ACT, United Future and the Maori Party (status quo)
  • The average of the polls predicts Labour could govern, but only with the agreement of Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party

These options are very finely balanced. A change in the party vote of just 1% would make a difference to what sort of government can be formed. If the Maori Party win less than their current three electorate seats, or if ACT, Mana, or United Future do not hold their electorates – that will have a significant impact on the possible shape of a Government.

Labour’s decision to rule out any ministerial roles for the Maori Party may turn out to be an incredibly stupid move for them, as it makes them far more reliant on support from Internet Mana. A Labour-Green-NZ First combination (Cunliffe’s stated option) is between three and six seats short of a majority in the polls. On average they are four seats short. This means that they realistically can not govern or pass laws (if they form a Government) without the agreement of Internet Mana. Internet Mana would of course support them to be Government (even if not Ministers) but they would have a effective veto on every law.

These polls show every vote could count. A change of just 1% could mean that NZ First hold the balance of power. If you have not voted, bote today or vote tomorrow.

Tags: ,

Two more polls

September 17th, 2014 at 6:48 pm by David Farrar

Two more polls out today, on Curiablog.


The weighted average is above, of the last five polls. The CR has 62, CL 50 and centre parties 11.


Latest poll

September 14th, 2014 at 11:09 am by David Farrar

The Sunday Star-Times has published the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll, which is at Curiablog. It has Labour at a new low of 22.4%.


On the average of the polls, a centre-right government has a very slim majority. They have 63 seats and need 62. After that then the Maori Party or NZ First hold balance of power, unless the Conservatives make 5%.


Two more polls

September 12th, 2014 at 6:11 am by David Farrar

Two more polls last night and this morning are at Curiablog.


The weighted average of the polls shows a tight race. The centre right parties could just govern – 62 seats out of 123. After that you would need Maori Paty, NZ First or Conservatives if they make 5%. The centre left parties have 51 seats.


Latest poll

September 11th, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Have blogged the 3 News poll at Curiablog.

Conservatives up up 0.5% to 4.7%. This isn’t a significant change (70% probability it is an increase), but it does suggest their chances of making 5% are getting better and better.


The average of all the public polls is above.


2011 vs 2014 polls two weeks out

September 8th, 2014 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

I’ve had a look at the average of the four main polls (those that are members of the NZ Political Polling Code) today, and compared them to the polls two weeks before the last election. The relative positions are:

  • National polling 2.2% below 2011
  • Labour polling 3.1% below 2011
  • Greens polling 0.9% higher than 2011
  • NZ First polling 2.7% higher than 2011

Were the difference between the election result and the polls two weeks out to be the same this time, as in 2011, then the results would be:

  • National 45.2%
  • Labour 24.4%
  • Greens 12.0%
  • NZ First 9.3%

I don’t expect this to be the result. Each election and campaign is different. For example the publicity around the teapot recording gave Winston a late boost last time, while this time he is polling higher earlier on.

Also this only looks at the four larger parties. Two weeks out from 2011 the Conservatives were polling only around 1% and they got 2.7%. They’re currently averaging 3.2%, and an extra 1.7% would have them on 4.9%.


The fall and fall of Labour

September 8th, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar


This graph was provided by Colmar Brunton on Twitter in response to a tweet.

Doesn’t it show a remarkable 10 year trend.

Tags: ,

Palmerston North tight

September 7th, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Manawatu Standard reports:

Two weeks out from election day the Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 401 eligible voters recorded 40 per cent support for Labour incumbent Iain Lees-Galloway and 39 per cent for his National challenger, Jono Naylor.

This is very close. The result means there is a 59% chance Lees-Galloway is ahead and a 41% chance Naylor is ahead.

Tags: ,

August 2014 public polls

September 5th, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

aug public polls

I’ve just published the August 2014 edition of my monthly newsletter summarising the polls in New Zealand and four other countries. There were a huge 10 polls in August (does not include the three since 31 August which will be in the September average).

The graph above tells a story around Labour, doesn’t it?

The executive summary is:

There were ten political polls in August – two each of Roy Morgan, One News Colmar Brunton, 3 News Reid Research, Herald DigiPoll and Fairfax Ipsos.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, down 2% from July. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 49 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition still trails but is regaining support.

In the United States the Republicans are favoured to gain control of the Senate in November. 

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 2%.The referendum on independence for Scotland has the no vote ahead by an average of 11%.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, and would be able to form a minority government on current polls.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. A new third table has been added, comparing approval ratings for opposition leaders in the four countries that have one.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Epsom, the Maori seats, political donations, foreign investment, “Dirty Politics”, binding referenda plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to to subscribe yourself. 



Two more polls

September 5th, 2014 at 5:33 am by David Farrar

Fairfax and the Herald both released polls this morning.  One has Labour at 24.3% and the other at 23.8%. Their focus on hacked e-mails instead of policy  is backfiring.

Polls are at Curiablog.


This is the time and size weighted average of all public polls.

Fairfax have said it all over bar the shouting. I would not be complacent. Certainly the thought of Labour governing on just 25% of the vote seems preposterous, but under MMP it can happen. The centre-right parties only have one seat margin over the minimum they need to govern.

Make sure you keep encouraging people to vote.


Coalition options

September 3rd, 2014 at 8:27 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

The latest TV3 poll could see either National or Labour forming a Government.

But Labour could do only with the support of four other parties.

National could do so with the support of just one other party, either the Maori Party or New Zealand First.

National would be able to form a Government very similar to the current one, with the support of the Maori Party, Act and United Future on confidence and supply.

Labour would need both the Maori Party and New Zealand First, plus the Greens and Internet Mana.

Labour would actually need six parties including themselves as Mana and Internet only have a temporary alliance.

That means a Labour-led Government would need to get Labour, Greens, NZ First, Mana, Maori and Internet parties to all agree on something in order to be able to make a decision and progress law changes.

Think about that.

Tags: ,

Flavell massively ahead in Waiariki

September 1st, 2014 at 5:41 pm by David Farrar

A Maori TV poll just released of Waiariki has incumbent MP Te Ururoa Flavell on 50%, Annette Sykes from Mana on 21% and the Labour candidate on 17%.

Polls can be out, and Maori seats are hard to poll, but I think there is little doubt that the Maori Party will be back in Parliament. They are also marginally ahead in Te Tai Hauauru. I suspect Tamaki Makaurau may be very close also.

Depending on their party vote, they could get List MPs also. But I don’t think enough to make Tame Iti an MP!


Tags: , ,

Debate polls

August 29th, 2014 at 8:05 am by David Farrar

Rachel Cunliffe blogs at Stats Chat on how meaningless opt in polls are. Three different opt in polls or surveys had Key ahead by 22%, Cunliffe ahead by 1% and Cunliffe ahead by 27%. They are NOT scientific.

I was on a plane so did not see the debate, but consensus seems to be David Cunliffe did well, apart from interjecting a bit too much. That is as I predicted.

Tags: ,

Latest poll

August 28th, 2014 at 3:44 pm by David Farrar

Have blogged the latest NZ Herald Digipoll at Curiablog.


This is the latest time and size weighted average of the public polls.


Maori Party ahead in Te Tai Hauāuru

August 28th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of a Maori TV poll on Te Tai Hauāuru.

This is the seat held by Tariana Turia. Labour and almost all the pundits have been claiming it will be an easy win for Labour. I’ve never been so sure, as I think personal loyalty to Turia will still play a part in this election – even though she is retiring.

The poll showed the Maori Party candidate ahead by 3%. That shows it will be a close race. With a 500 person sample, it means there is an 81% chance McKenzie is actually leading.

Maori TV are polling all seven Maori seats. Lots of interest in the seats held by Flavell, Sharples (retiring) and Harawira. They may decide who gets to govern!

Tags: ,

Is it 2002 all over again?

August 27th, 2014 at 6:22 pm by David Farrar

The latest 3 News poll has National down 2.5% to 45%, but Labour dropping even more (2.6%) to 26.4%. That is even lower than their 2011 result. So in National’s worst week, Labour drops even further.

There is volatility in the polls, but at this stage it is not people going from right to left. It is a transfer of votes within the right and left blocs. National losing to Conservatives and Labour losing to Greens and Winston.

The Conservatives at 4.6% is great news for them. Now it is just one poll, and let’s see what the others say. But it gives them what they need – relevance.

People will wonder what is the impact on the outcome if they made 5%? Well here is the result with them on 4.6% and 5.0%.

Conservatives 4.6%

Centre-Right 59 seats (Nat 57, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 53 seats (Lab 33, Greens 17, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would need the Maori Party to govern, and Labour would need both NZ First and the Maori Party (plus Greens, Mana)

Conservatives 5.0%

Centre-Right 62 seats (Nat 54,  Conservatives 6, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 51 seats (Lab 32, Greens 16, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.


Tags: ,

Has Labour’s bribe backfired on them?

August 22nd, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Labour’s support among the elderly has slumped despite making free GP visits for pensioners the centrepiece of its election campaign launch recently.

A breakdown of the party vote according to age suggests a dramatic fall from 29.3 per cent among pensioners in last month’s poll to just 17.6 per cent in today’s poll.

Once the poll results are broken into age groups they are simply indicative.

But what makes the movement more credible is that New Zealand First, which assiduously courts the grey vote, has gone from 4.7 per cent support among the over 65-year-olds last month to 8.9 per cent of the older vote in today’s poll.

We can estimate how significant these changes are.

We don’t know how many over 65s were in the poll sample of 750, but let’s estimate 200.

A fall from 29.3% to 17.6% has a 99.3% chance of being a true fall, and only a 0.7% chance of being just random sample differences. So it is safe to conclude Labour has fallen in support from over 65s despite their bribe.

An increase from 4.7% to 8.9% has a 94.8% chance of being a true increase, so it is likely they have gained support from over 65s.

Tags: , ,

The Herald Pref PM rating

August 21st, 2014 at 6:12 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

John Key’s popularity has dived by 8.5 points in the first political poll since Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics was released, according to a Herald DigiPoll survey.

Mr Key is still well ahead of Labour Leader David Cunliffe but Mr Cunliffe has jumped by 4.1 points.

Mr Key is preferred Prime Minister by 64.8 per cent, compared with Mr Cunliffe on 14.6 per cent.

The figures do not necessarily reflect the party vote standings which will be released in tomorrow’s Herald.

What this story doesn’t mention until later on is Key’s rating jumped 8% in the last poll, so this takes it back to where it was two polls ago. Here’s his rating since the 2011 election:

  • Apr 2012 64%
  • Jun 2012 64%
  • Sep 2012 66%
  • Mar 2013 63%
  • Jun 2013 65%
  • Sep 2013 56%
  • Dec 2013 62%
  • Mar 2014 67%
  • Jun 2014 66%
  • Jul 2014 73%
  • Aug 2014 65%

I’ve never known the Herald to release one part of their poll before the main poll. My guess is that the party vote figures have not moved much, so they released this early to try and get a bad news story in, to justify their frenzy over the Hager book.

National were at 55% in the party vote last poll. There is no way they’ll be that high again. The two polls before that were 50% and 51% so anything at or above that level would be pretty good in my view. And recall this poll is taken entirely after the Hager book was released.


Greens and Labour in Canterbury

August 18th, 2014 at 6:04 am by David Farrar

Georgina Stylianou at Stuff reports:

Cantabrians appear more likely to vote Green than people anywhere else in the country, a new poll suggests.

Data from the political poll shows the Green Party gained 8.8 percentage points, according to surveys done at the start of this month, putting the party on 21.2 per cent support in Canterbury against a national average of 11.3 per cent. …

 Labour lost traction in Canterbury for the second month in a row, with the latest data putting it on 14.2 per cent, down 10 percentage points. Last month, Labour lost 3 percentage points while National gained the same amount. National is polling at just over 55 per cent – down 4 percentage points from July – of the Canterbury party vote. …

Right-wing blogger and commentator David Farrar said the Greens and Labour had been competing for the same votes.

At a regional level, the data had a higher margin of error so to “say Canterbury is more Green . . . will require them to stay at that level for another month or so,” Farrar said.

Only 108 people in the poll were from Canterbury. That is a 9.4% margin of error

Greens went from 12.3% to 21.2%. There is a 94.7% chance their vote actually lifted.

Labour went from 17.2% to 14.2%. There is a 71.1% chance their vote actually dropped.

There is an 89.1% chance that the Greens are actually polling higher than Labour in Canterbury.

So none of these are at 95% confidence, but they are more likely than not by some distance.

Tags: , ,