As one can see, February saw significant movement in the polls, as shown in the above average of the public polls.
The monthly newsletter is out today. The executive summary is:
There were four political polls in February – a One News Colmar Brunton poll, a Fairfax Ipsos poll and two Roy Morgan poll
The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour in January, up a large 6% from January. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 55 which would see National form a Government.
Tony Abbott’s approval ratings has plunged in Australia.
In the United States President Obama’s numbers continue to slowly recover from his terrible end to 2013.
In the UK David Cameron’s ratings also drop after a poor Government response to recent floods.
In Canada the Conservatives are static with the Liberals remaining in the lead.
The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood in Australia has dropped significantly in the last month, while New Zealand improves.
We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the NZ Flag, religion in schools, Winston Peters, the most important issues, Labour’s baby bonus, higher taxes plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.
National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.
Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.
Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.
One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.
It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.
The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.Tags: Polls
Stuff has a story from Reuters which says:
Support for Scottish independence rises
I got excited. There must have been a big movement in the polls. So I read the story.
The first opinion poll since Britain’s rulers warned Scots they would lose the pound if they voted to leave the United Kingdom showed a slight increase in support for independence ahead of a referendum on the issue scheduled for September 18.
Slight? So it wasn’t 5%. Maybe 4%? I presumed it a significant amount as Reuters has done an entire story on this.
A Survation/Scottish Daily Mail poll carried out on February 17 and 18 of 1,005 people found 37.7 percent support independence, which it said could be compared to 36.9 percent recorded in a PanelBase/Sunday Times poll carried out on January 29-February 6.
First of all comparing the results of one company to the results of another, to declare a change is bad enough. But even if the results were from the same company, is an increase of 0.8% significant?
My probability calculator tells me the two results mean that there is a 61.6% chance the second poll is actually higher than the first poll To turn that around, there is a 38% chance there has been no increase at all.
Hardly worth a story.
Personally I don’t think Scotland voting for independence would be a bad thing for England. But anyway the point is that Reuters have written a story about pretty much nothing.Tags: Polls, Scotland
Duncan Garner talks on Radio Live about how the ABCs are back. He cites both a current and former Labour MP who have said that there is growing discontent over how Cunliffe has started the year.
Duncan was very clear that there is no challenge to Cunliffe’s leadership looming.Both sources were explicit on this. What has happened is that the the ABCs had gone into hibernation, but now they are talking to each other again.
The strategy that seems to be emerging is more a go slow. They think Labour can’t win, so they won’t bust their backs slogging away for a leader they don’t support. They’ll just wait for the loss, and then vacate the leadership after the election.
That’s what Garner has said a current and former Labour MP have said. And it is worth noting that Garner was one of the first to expose the maneuvers that were happening against David Shearer.
Labour dropping to 30% in yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll won’t help settle things down much either. The RM poll is very volatile, so eyes will be out for other polls in the next month or so.
Pete George has a transcript of what Garner said.Tags: David Cunliffe, Labour Leadership, Polls
Tracy Watkin at Stuff reports:
Politicians may rate lower than used car salesmen in most polls, but it seems they are not all created equal.
A Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll reveals that Prime Minister John Key is by far our most liked and trusted politician, with 59.3 per cent of people liking him, and 58.7 per cent also trusting him.
Key is also well ahead of his opponents as preferred prime minister on 51.2 per cent.
Labour leader David Cunliffe appears to be more polarising, with those who like and trust him, and those who don’t, falling into roughly equal camps. His rating as preferred prime minister is just 18.2 per cent.
The bad news for Cunliffe is that only Conservative Party leader Colin Craig, Mana Party leader Hone Harawira and Internet Party leader Kim Dotcom are more disliked. Harawira and Dotcom are also the least trusted.
At least he beat out Dotcom!
Brian Edwards, veteran commentator and media trainer to former Labour leader Helen Clark and others, said for a political leader to be truly successful, they needed the public to both like and trust them – but being likeable may provide the biggest advantage.
“John Key is widely liked and I think this is a problem for anyone that wants to oppose him because that liking is the sort of liking people have for a mate or friend or someone they know.
“Key has got this easygoing pleasant demeanour, he doesn’t seem to take things all that seriously and kids around a bit, which gives him a very accessible personality. He enjoys this tremendous liking among the public, which is very difficult for his opponents to deal with.”
Even when people considered him to be dodgy on issues such as the SkyCity deal, or electorate accommodations in seats like Epsom, that was outweighed by the fact they liked him.
“With David Cunliffe he probably does not come across as such an easygoing, warm sort of character . . . he’s not hated, but I don’t think he enjoys that popular appeal John Key has.”
That was not fatal to Cunliffe’s chances of becoming prime minister, but it would make his job harder, especially with a “feel good” factor around the economy – “for some people at least”. “It’s going to be extremely difficult for Labour to win this election.“
Their best chances are a Labour/Greens/Mana Government endorsed by Kim Dotcom. But you can see above the problems associated with that also!Tags: Brian Edwards, David Cunliffe, Polls
The recent Fairfax poll asked respondents if they support or opposed raising taxes to pay for new spending. 69% said they were opposed and 25% in favour which means the net disapproval was -44%.
I was interested in the breakdown by party vote, which Fairfax kindly supplied. The net disapproval for supporters of each party against higher taxes was:
- National voters: -59% net disapproval
- Labour voters: -23% net disapproval
- Green voters -0.5% net disapproval
- NZ First voters -55% net disapproval
No surprise National voters are against higher taxes. Pleasing to see NZ First voters just as strongly against. What was fascinating is that most Labour voters are against increasing taxes to pay for new spending. Only 36% supported that with 59% opposed. The Greens were the only party not to be strongly opposed and they were split pretty much down the middle.
Also interesting to look at the demographics of opposition to higher taxes. They include:
- Under 30s: -38% net disapproval
- Maori: -50% net disapproval
- Europeans: -40% net disapproval
- Students: -32% net disapproval
- No qualifications: -67% net disapproval
- Post-grads: -22% net disapproval
- HH income under $50k: -46% net disapproval
- HH income over $100k: -32% net disapproval
So three fascinating things here:
- More Maori than Europeans oppose raising taxes to pay for more spending
- Those with no qualifications at all are far more opposed than the small number of people with a post-graduate degree
- Those with household incomes below $50K more opposed than those with HH income over $100k
So if parties go into this election vowing to raise taxes to pay for more spending, they will be seriously out of touch. As we head back into surplus, I want parties to be offering tax cuts, not tax increases.
The detailed results are here, for those interested - Fairfax poll breakdownTags: Polls, tax
Some interesting data in the breakdown of the Fairfax poll. Now note that these can be small sample sizes with high margins of error. But still some value in them.
I’ve listed National’s support from the strongest to weakest demographics:
- 65+ yr olds 55.5%
- Men 53.6%
- 45 – 64 52.6%
- Lower NI 50.6%
- Auckland 50.2%
- Upper NI 49.8%
- All 49.4%
- South Island (rest) 49.1%
- Canterbury 47.8%
- Wellington 47.3%
- 30 – 46 46.1%
- Women 45.7%
- 18 – 29 40.6%
The interesting thing about those breakdowns is that older voters always turn out in much greater proportions than younger voters. Also interesting how strong Auckland is for National.Tags: Polls
Fairfax have their latest poll done last weekend.
It has National 17% ahead of Labour and 7% ahead of Labour/Greens combined. Those saying NZ is heading in the right direction are 64% compared to 36% wrong track.
Very pleasing is that 67% are opposed to raising taxes to fund new initiatives, with only 27% in favour. Parties should be offering tax cuts, as NZ heads back into surplus, not tax increases.
Labour have dropped 2% in this poll and under Cunliffe not making more of an impact than David Shearer did. This poll result comes out in the same week when one Labour MP showed his colleagues how to run an issue well, and get most of NZ onside – as Shane Jones did with Countdown. More than a few of his colleagues will be wondering if the party made the wrong choice.Tags: Polls
I’ve just published Curia’s monthly polling newsletter (can subscribe here), and of interest is the difference in mood between countries.
Many polls ask if people think their country is generally heading in the right or the wrong direction. They difference between right and wrong is called the net direction. The current polls for the five countries we cover are:
- United States -32%
- United Kingdom -21%
- Canada – 17%
- Australia +2%
- New Zealand +39%
Why do people think New Zealand is so much more positive than all the others?Tags: Polls
Been doing the monthly polling newsletter, and in reading the results of the UK polls, noticed some interesting questions this month. results include:
The Labour Party has announced that if it wins next year’s election it will increase the top rate of income tax to 50p for people earning more than £150,000 a year. If Labour does come to power and does increase the top rate of income tax, what do you think will happen in practice?
16% say it raise a significant amount of money and 71% say rich people will find ways to avoid paying the tax and it will raise very little extra money.
Currently people are allowed to use “reasonable” force to defend themselves and their home against a burglar or intruder. Some people have suggested that the law should be changed to allow people to use whatever force they see fit to defend themselves and their home against a burglar or intruder. Would you support or oppose changing the law to allow people to use whatever force they see fit to defend themselves and their home against a burglar or intruder?
An astonishing 75% support no limit on what force can be used to defend a home with only 17% against. And specifically on lethal force:
Do you think it is or is not acceptable for someone defending their home to use force that causes the death of a burglar or intruder?
60% support lethal force and only 26% against. Even Labour voters are 55% in favour and 30% against.
The Channel 4 news presenter Jon Snow recently said he always thought about sex upon meeting a member of the opposite sex, saying ‘Sex comes into every evaluation of a woman, there’s no doubt about it. It’s there,’
When you meet a member of the opposite sex, do you think about what they would be like to make love to?
36% say they do and 60% say they do not. But broken by gender it is 56% of men do and only 18% of women!
If a referendum were held on the UK’s membership of the European Union with the options being to remain a member or withdraw, how do you think you would vote?
52% say they would vote to leave and 34% to remain. 62% of Conservatives favour leaving, 40% of Labour and 36% of Lib Dems.Tags: Polls, United Kingdom
The Herald reports:
Labour’s target of selecting candidates to ensure women make up at least half of its caucus by 2017 has been given the thumbs down in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey – and more than half of the women polled said it was too restrictive.
The survey asked respondents whether they believed Labour’s target of achieving 50 per cent by 2017 was a good idea, or too restrictive.
Overall, 54 per cent said it was too restrictive, while just 38 per cent believed it was a good idea. Among the women respondents, 52 per cent said it was too restrictive while 42 per cent believed it was a good idea.
And it’s more than a target, it is basically a quota.
A spokeswoman for Labour leader David Cunliffe said it was a matter for the party.
Oh how brave. DC campaigned on it in the leadership primary.
Labour has so far selected only about eight candidates, all in electorates held by other parties. So far four are males and three are females – but in the three more marginal seats of Otaki, Napier and Te Tai Hauauru the candidates are all male – Robb McCann, Stuart Nash and Adrian Rurawhe respectively.
What the gender quota means is that if those three men look likely to win their seats, then three men on the party list must be demoted beneath female candidates to compensate.Tags: gender quotas, Labour, Polls
The latest polling update, for November and December 2013. National has had a good three months.
The summary of the newsletter is:
There were three polls in November and two in December.
The average of the public polls has National 13% ahead of Labour in November (was 10% in October) and also 13% in December. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 59.
Tony Abbott has the shortest honeymoon in recent history, with the Coalition already behind Labor and with a net negative approval rating in Australia.
In the United States President Obama’s approval rating is drops to an even further all-time low of 41%. The Republicans are now ahead of the Democrats on the generic House ballot as the Obamacare fiasco damages the President and his party.
In the UK Labour’ leads the Conservatives by just 5%.
In Canada the ongoing scandal in the Senate sees the Conservatives drop to 28%.
The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood in NZ is a net 27% higher than Australia and 69% higher than in the US. Key is the only leader with a positive approval rating (+30%).
We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on cannabis, CIRS, electoral threshold, asset sales, KiwiAssure, Te Tai Tokerau, Pike River, GST, Fireworks, the speed limit, fishing, mining, land sales and drink driving plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.
The Herald reports:
Labour’s poll support has slipped after an initial surge following David Cunliffe’s election as leader, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.
The Maori Party would hold the balance of power if the figures were translated to an election result.
With the left and right blocs fairly evenly split, it could be a close election next year.
Neither National nor Labour would be able to form a government without the Maori Party.
Labour has fallen 2.3 points in the survey to 35.4 per cent. In the September poll, it had a surge in support and could have formed a government with just the Greens and Mana.
National has risen 3.1 points and Prime Minister John Key has somewhat recovered in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, after taking a 9.4 point dive in the last poll.
He has jumped 6.1 points to 61.9 per cent, well ahead of Mr Cunliffe on 16.5 per cent.
Not a bad place to end the year. And David Cunliffe is polling below what David Shearer was as Preferred PM.Tags: Polls
Colin Espiner reports:
The Conservative Party is poised to stand its high-profile chief executive Christine Rankin against National’s Paula Bennett in Upper Harbour, setting up a potential battle of the former solo mums next election.
Conservative Party leader Colin Craig confirmed to the Sunday Star-Times that the party’s board had formally asked the controversial former boss of Work and Income New Zealand to stand in next year’s general election. …
Bennett and Rankin have similar back stories; both grew up in households without much money, had children at a young age and raised them alone on the domestic purposes benefit. Both ended up in charge of their former paymaster; Rankin as chief executive of Work and Income New Zealand and Bennett as Minister of Social Development.
It will be an interesting contest. I suspect both women will agree on a lot of stuff around welfare reforms but perhaps disagree in other areas.
Polling had indicated Rankin would do well in the proposed electorate that would wrap around the north and west of Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour. …
Independent polling by Research Solutions for the Conservatives obtained by the Star-Times shows Rankin has 24 per cent support in Upper Harbour, with 20 per cent opting for “another candidate” and a large 56 per cent undecided.
I’ve blogged on this before, but a poll which names only one candidate has little value in predicting the outcome of an election. A poll should either be totally unprompted (Which candidate or party’s candidate would you vote for) or totally prompted (Which of the following candidates would you vote for). A poll which just asks “Would you vote for Candidate A or some other candidate” has relatively little value.Tags: Christine Rankin, Conservatives, Paula Bennett, Polls
An HoS Key Research poll has National on 48%, Labour 40%, Greens 8% and no minor party above 1%. It depends on the exact votes each minor party actually got, but an estimate of the seats would be National 58, Labour 48, Greens 10 and if existing electorates hold Maori 3, Mana 1, UF 1 and ACT 1. So CR 60 seats, CL 59 seats and Maori Party 3 seats.
National will be happy on 48%. Labour will be delighted if they are on 40%. Worth noting that the latest Roy Morgan poll had Labour on 30.5% and Greens on 14.5% so the two polls are starkly different when it comes to how the left vote is splitting. They both show National around equal with them combined though.Tags: Polls
Mana leader Hone Harawira is under pressure to hold his Tai Tai Tokerau seat with a new poll showing him running a close second to a yet-to-be-selected Labour candidate.
The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.
Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.
A Maori party candidate would get 14 per cent, the survey found.
Harawira held the seat in 2011 with a 1165 majority over Labour’s Kelvin Davis.
Labour have said they want to win all seven Maori seats. Flavell looks very safe in Waiariki. I thought Harawira would be streaks ahead in Te Tai Tokerau, but it seems not.
There was strong backing for Harawira’s performance as the local MP with 14 per cent rating it “fantastic”, 39 per cent above average and 31 per cent average.
Only 12 per cent rated it either below average or poor.
That suggests the locals like him as their local MP. The question is will they vote to keep him.Tags: Hone Harawira, Polls, Te Tai Tokerau
Have just published the latest polling newsletter. The summary is:
There were three polls in August, four in September and four in October
The average of the public polls has National 13% ahead of Labour in August, 8% in September and 10% in October. The current seat projection is centre-right 59 seats, centre-left 61.
Tony Abbott starts his term with modestly positive approval ratings in Australia.
In the United States President Obama’s approval rating is at an all-time low, and only 21% say the US is heading in the right direction. However Republicans also down in the polls.
In the UK Labour’ leads the Conservatives by 7%.
In Canada an ongoing scandal in the Senate sees the Conservatives a just 29%.
The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood has improved in Australia but plummeted in the US.
This newsletter is only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.Tags: Polls
I’ve blogged the latest 3 News Reid Research poll at Curiablog. Some insights I take from it:
- Projects a centre-right Government, despite fall for National who got just over 46%
- Labour up only 1% from July to 32% and July was in the middle of the man ban controversy for them
- Was taken the week of Labour’s national conference, which is normally a good poll boost for a party
- Cunliffe only at 11% Preferred PM, which is below what David Shearer was at in July
- Conservatives up to almost 3%
The Press reports:
Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has signalled he is losing confidence in the Earthquake Commission (EQC)’s chief executive, demanding a “full inquiry” into how disgruntled homeowners were excluded from satisfaction surveys.
The issue arose after EQC critic and homeowner advocate Bryan Staples provided The Press with a document which appeared to show a system whereby EQC earmarked dissatisfied customers to leave them out of potential survey pools.
Brownlee yesterday told reporters at Parliament he was “quite annoyed” not to have been given information about the exclusions sooner.
The disclosure followed an Auditor-General’s report this week which quoted an EQC survey saying 80 per cent of homeowners were satisfied with the Canterbury home repair process.
Brownlee later said EQC was doing “pretty well” and yesterday stood by the comment.
Asked what level of confidence he had in EQC chief executive Ian Simpson, Brownlee refused to comment, but made it clear that confidence was at stake.
“It’s one of those things that I think goes to the heart of confidence and I’m very, very annoyed about it,” he said.
“I’ve asked the State Services Commissioner to conduct a full inquiry and he’ll be reporting to me in the next couple of days about how that’s going to be progressed.”
An inquiry is warranted. The integrity of the sample is crucial to the reliability of a poll or survey. The exclusion of those who were recorded as being in a dispute with EQC means that the survey results were not representative.
What will be crucial is whether the report disclosed the sampling method, and the fact some home owners were excluded.Tags: EQC, Gerry Brownlee, Polls
This is updated to take account of the Roy Morgan polls, One News Colmar Brunton poll and Fairfax Ipsos poll. So basically 61 seats for the centre-right, 60 seats for centre-left and Maori Party would hold balance of power.Tags: Polls
TVNZ has results of a Te Karere DigiPoll in Waiariki.
The party vote results (and change from the election) are:
- Maori Party 35% (+14%)
- Labour 29% (-6%)
- Greens 8% (-1%)
- Mana 6% (-11%)
- National 4% (-2%)
- NZ First 3% (-8%)
The electorate vote:
- Maori Party 43% (nc)
- Labour 17% (-8%)
- Mana 8% (-25%)
The changes are comparing election vote (with no undecideds) with current preferences (with undecideds) so take that into account. However it is very clear that the Maori Party is benefiting in Waiariki from Flavell’s accession to the co-leadership, and he looks rather safe to retain the seat.
59% of voters said Flavell does an above average or better job as a local MP and only 4% say below average. That’s an incredibly high rating.Tags: Polls, Te Ururoa Flavell, Waiariki
Horizon have released a exit poll showing John Palino only 4% behind Len Brown in the Auckland mayoralty.
Before people get too excited by this, I would point out Horizon’s final pre-election poll in 2011 had Labour winning the general election and only 5% behind National (in fact they got 20% behind National).
An August UMR poll had the gap at 23% (47% to 14%).
Could things have changed that much in the last six weeks? We’ll find out in a week when the results come in.Tags: Auckland Council, Horizon Poll, Polls
I’ve got details of the two latest polls at Curiablog. Sunday night’s One News Colmar Brunton poll and this morning’s Herald Digipoll. The former had little movement while the latter has a large swing to Labour.
The time and size weighted average of all the public polls has it almost neck and neck with the CR bloc on 60 seats, CL on 62 seats and the Maori Party holding the balance of power on 3 seats. This assumes no changes in electorate seats.Tags: Polls